Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Gulfstream Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: LA Downs
Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Reservenotattained – Has finished in the money in fifteen races out of sixteen career races, winning the last three races in a row – He has the highest last race speed rating and the high % winning Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.
4 – Bam Bam Blu – Arrived from Laurel and promptly won his first race at Gulfstream Park – He likes the distance finishing in the money 80% of the time, winning 40% of the races.
2 – Henry’s World – Has plenty of early speed could steal the race and he has two bullet workouts in a row.
1 – Big City Red
Race 2
1 – Wicked Fast – Was placed 2nd vs similar in last race after winning and being disqualified and placed 2nd – He has a high % winning jockey, and the trainer wins 30% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race – He has the best turf speed among today’s starters.
3 – King of Truth – Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in last race – He switches to a high % winning jockey, his Dam has produced 2 Turf winners and he has a bullet workout on 11Mar GP 3f my :36 B 1/4.
2 – Panorama Truck – Won his last race Gulfstream Park – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (12 4-4-1).
8 – Fran’s Strike – Won last race at Gulfstream Park on an All-Weather surface and earning the highest last race speed rating – The breeding suggests he will like the grass and the Dam has produced 1 Turf winner.
Alternate:
4 – Ghostinyou
6 – God Is Love
Race 3
6 – Bunnynotbeast –Won her debut race at Gulfstream Park – Has jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons.
2 – Veloce Bella – Won her debut race at Gulfstream Park on an All-Weather surface – She was well bet in debut.
5 – David’s Rose – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a high % trainer.
1 – Amazing Trip – The trainer wins 30% of the time when going from Dirt to AW surface – The Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (19 5-3-3).
Alternate:
4 – Firenspice
3 – Arrow Shape
Race 4
1 – Old Town Road – Won four out of five career races including the last race at Gulfstream Park and at today’s distance.
2 – Lucago – Won his last three races in row and has a good 3F workout on Mar-10.
5 – Unsociable – Won his last race at Gulfstream Park and received the highest last race speed rating – His best All-Weather speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (19 5-3-3).
7 – I’ll Figure It Out – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race and won the race before
Alternate:
4 – Frolic Man
6 – Always Gambling
Race 5
5 – Perfect Provision – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Lasix is added – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (19 5-3-3)
7 – Devilly – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race and got the highest last race speed rating – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-1-0).
2 – R Girl’s Werth It – She finished 4th last race after being bumped at the start – She has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Anna and Mia – She is a first-time starter and breeding suggests she will like the grass -The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 3-0-0).
Alternate:
10 – Radiant Gem
9 – Bullet On Tap
Race 6
8 – Pino in a Purse – She comes in from Woodbine after winning three races out of eight starts there – Switches to a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
1 – Be Naughty With Me – Won her debut race at Gulfstream Park on an All-Weather surface and was well bet in the debut.
5 – Shes All Woman – She ran 2nd in her last race and got the highest last race speed rating – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 4-2-0).
4 – Gitana – Has a high % winning trainer – Drops in class today – Her trainer wins 27% of the races when his entry is off 90+ days – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Race 7
1 – Beechnut Trophy – Won her last race at Gulfstream Park on the turf – She has a High % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey – Lasix is added and she has a good 3F workout (Mar-12).
7 – American Heroine – Won her last race Gulfstream Park – She has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – Her trainer wins 25% of the races when his entry goes from a Route to a Sprint.
4 – Running Legacy – Won her debut race at Gulfstream Park on an All-Weather surface and was well bet in debut – Breeding suggests she will like the grass – Her dam has produced 4 Turf winners – Lasix is added.
2 – Thataint Tooshabby – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick – She has a bullet workout on 10Mar at 3f ft :36ª B 1/13.
Alternate:
3 – Love Her Lots
5 – Demogorgon
Race 8
9 – Fearless Girl – Finished in the money in the last three races, running 2nd in her last race earning the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Dreaming of Audrey ran 2nd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race – Her best All-Weather speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-2-0).
10 – Soupster – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
2 – Lemonade Lady – She switches to a high % winning trainer and the trainer wins 29% of the races in the 1st after a claim.
Alternate:
7 – Black Swan
1 – Matcha
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs AW – 48 Races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: similar 1-7, little 8+ Bonus
Three want the lead, three want to chase the leaders and one prefers to close. It could translate into a hot pace that sets up speed of the speed of a stalker with the most late push.
6 – RESERVENOTATTAINED – ranks out so much higher than all the others, only question is first AW run, DROP 100-24
2 – HENRY’S WORLD – first off the claim, bullet work and jockey change, DROP 54-24
4 – BAM BAM BLU
1 – BIG CITY RED
Race 2 – 1 Mile Turf – 97 Races, 57 won by speed, 27 w2w -PP: mostly fair 1-7, slight penalty 8+
There isn’t a lot of early pace in here with just two traditional front runners, a stalker, a few pressers and three closers. If the fractions are right, the winner is likely to near the lead all the way around the track.
1 – WICKED FAST – shouldn’t be too far from the front and has the best LP#s, could be better in 2nd off the bench
5 – K. C. CHIEF – can win from the front and won from 10 lengths behind in his last
8 – FRAN’S STRIKE – ran the TLRSP# in a sprint win on AW, 2 Fastest Opening Fractions
4 – GHOSTINYOU – broke his maiden in his last with 1st Lasix, trainer Joseph Saffie, Jr 25/94 (27%) a little premium JSjrs 22% win rate
Race 3 – 5 ½ Furlongs AW – 48 Races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: similar 1-7, little 8+ Bonus
This one could be fast, maybe too fast early as six of the seven in here have won from the lead or withing a neck or so of the lead. Speed of the speed or the closer have the best chance.
4 – FIRENSPICE – is the lone closer, just can’t get too far behind to catch up, nice 4f/LP jump in his last
6 – BUNNYNOTBEAST – tough call over the 2, interchangeable, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions debut
2 – VELOCE BELLA – has the top EP and LP#s in debut at MCL 16k, but that’s one the lowest Maiden Ws
1 – AMAZING TRIP – won debut and won lone 1st race after some time off, like today, some fast works getting ready and should be close to the front from start to finish
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs AW – 48 Races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: similar 1-7, little 8+ Bonus
This race could have lots of speed or a bunch of chases that can run by the leaders late. I don’t believe race shape will determine the outcome; it will be the best horse.
1 – OLD TOWN ROAD – can win from the front or back, last race was even better than it looks because he checked hard early.
5 – UNSOCIABLE – got his maiden win in his last in 2nd try with TLRSP#, tough call over the 2
2 – LUCAGO – undefeated in 3 on GP AW, 1st off the claim, tr Teresa Pompay 5/18 (28%) vs 9% overall rate – some better LP #s in last
4 – FROLIC MAN – has the 2nd best EP/LP combo, across the board improvement, 4 SP# Increases, 1st try on AW
Race 5 – 5 Furlongs Turf – 49 Races, 33 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: Slight inside 3 bias
The first-time starters will tip the balance here as there are four speed horses, three pressers and a pair of closers in the experienced group.
5 – PERFECT PROVISION – the only TC drop 60-43, speed w/ 1st time Lasix
2 – R GIRL’S WERTH IT – 3rd after a layoff, some 4f improvement in her last, top EP and tie top EP/LP combo
3 – ANNA AND MIA – Wesley Ward hitting at 47%, adds in Irad, probably best 1st time starter
7 – DEVILLY – is one of the two closers and if the newbies create a hot tempo, would benefit
Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs AW – 48 Races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: similar 1-7, little 8+ Bonus
This one could have plenty early pace with seven of eight horses that like to lead or press the lead, speed of the speed or the horses with the best late kick.
4 – GITANA – has the top EP#s and decent LP#s, been off since Dec, but 19f of good works since Jan 30
5 – SHES ALL WOMAN – has the best LP#s by a wide margin, 1st off the claim, send off the bench
1 – BE NAUGHTY WITH ME – won her debut and was well bet, could improve in 2nd start
8 – PINO IN A PURSE – is the lone closer in the field, and should benefit from a quick pace
Race 7 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – 15 Races. 8 won by speed, 3 w2w – PP: odds 2/3&8+>rail and 4-7
This one should favor the frontrunners because five of the eight are closers, two are pressers and only one that has shown an interest in taking charge.
5 – DEMOGORGON – chased a fast pace last out, should not see that here, and should get a great set up
1 – BEECHNUT TROPHY – Jose Ortiz gets off the 5 to ride here ??? 1st time Lasix with slight top EP/LP combo, but might have to go worst to first in what could be a disadvantageous pace
3 – LOVE HER LOTS – 3rd after the break, 3SP# increases including LP improvement in her first on grass in her last effort
7 – AMERICAN HEROINE – a million dollar horse, ran well in debut on turf at distance/surface, just missed on AW last out, has one of the best EP/LP combos
Race 8 – 5 ½ Furlongs AW – 48 Races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: similar 1-7, little 8+ Bonus
This field has mostly closers with some cheap early speed and a few chasers. Should set up for a stalker or one of the cheap speed types if they can control the tempo.
2 – LEMONADE LADY – 1st off the claim for Joseph Saffie, jr. 74/246 (30%) which is higher than his 22% overall win rate
5 – DREAMING OF AUDREY – could be better in 2nd start after a layoff, BTN FAV, Tr; Jose D’Angelo 11/44
9 – FEARLESS GIRL – has the best LP#s by a lot – a lot, just not sure the pace will be fast enough to take full advantage of her advantage
6 – SUNDAY SUZANNE – is the only class dropper from MOC 40
