Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Gulfstream Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Picks: Turf Paradise
Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Dreaming of Audrey – Switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey – The trainer wins 30% in 1st after a claim – Her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters – Hot Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-1)
4 – Latte Lover – Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-3-1)
2 – Mama Longlegs – Has plenty of early speed, may be able to lead all the way.
1 – Be Naughty With Me – Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters
Alternate:
7 – G T’s Blue Squall
Race 2
6 – Freedom Matters – Won her last race at Gulfstream (on turf) in last race – Drops in class today. And the trainer wins 55% of the races when he drops a horse off a win.
5 – Regal Speaker – Finished 3rd vs tougher (on AW) in last race – Has the highest last race speed rating – Finished 3rd vs tougher (on AW) in last race – Drops in class today – Has a high %winning trainer and jockey – Drops in class today.
4 – Mandate – Drops in class today – Has the highest last race speed rating, highest speed figure at today’s distance and has the best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (42 11-6-5).
1 – Max K. O. – Likes GS Park, distance, and the turf. The trainer wins 31% of the time when bringing back a Beaten favorite back to race.
Alternate:
2 – Landbiscuit
Race 3
1 – Sososubtle – Highest speed figure at today’s distance, Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters and may improve with Blinkers added today.
3 – Converter – Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – He has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (11 6-0-1).
6 – Gods Promise –Drops in class today – Early speed running style helps chances – 4F workout on 21Feb GP 4f ft :47.4 B 4/16
2 – King Cairo – Won the race before last and drops in class today.
Alternate:
5 – Churchills Victory
7 – Navajo Creed
Race 4
3 – Swing Shift – Won his debut race at Gulfstream Park – Well bet in debut – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (11 5-0-1)
4 – King Cab – Won his last race at Gulfstream Park easily – Has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
5 – In the Union – Comes in from Tampa Bay Downs after a win and a third – has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey – Trainer Todd Pletcher who also trains Swing Shift in the last 14 days has this record (11 5-0-1).
6 – Little Vic – Drops in class today -The trainer wins 17% of the time when using 1st time Lasix.
Alternate:
1 – Skippylongstocking
2 – Steal Sunshine
Race 5
6 – Paintbrush – Won two races in a row at Gulfstream, the last one at today’s distance – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (42 11-6-5).
1 – Ukiyo – Won two races back at today’s distance – Switches to a high % winning jockey – The trainer wins 28% of the races the 2nd race after a claim.
8 – Mount Sinai – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race earning the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 21% of the races when going from Sprint-Sprint-Route – May improve at the longer
4 – Vandalia – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 18% of the claiming races.
distance and her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Babyitsgoldoutside
Race 6
1 – Natural Power – Won his last race at Gulfstream – Has finished in the money in both races at Gulfstream Park and distance will be no problem.
4 – Shekky Shebaz – Finished 3rd in last race – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-1-1) – Sharp 3F workout on 22Feb Pay 3f ft :36¨ B 1/3.
8 – Cucina – Has a high % winning Jockey – The trainer wins 21% of the races when going from Sprint – Route – Can improve while returning to a sprint.
7 – The Virginian – Ran 2nd in last race just missing by only a head earning the highest last race speed rating – Bullet 4F workout on 22Feb GP 4f ft :47 B 1/17.
Alternate:
6 – Into the Sunrise
2 – Gretzky the Great
Race 7
8 – Yes I’m a Beast- Has won three races in a row at Gulfstream and The trainer wins 29% of the races 1st after claim – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (12 5-0-3).
2 – Stormy Pattern – Won his last race at Gulfstream with Chantel Sutherland in the irons and she returns to try and repeat – The trainer wins 27% of the time when going from a Sprint -Route-Sprint.
3 – Klugman – Won his last race at Gulfstream easily and has the highest last race speed – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Clapton – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – The trainer wins 21% of the time when using 2nd time Lasix – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (42 11-6-5).
Alternate:
1 – Hoorayhoorayhooray
7 – One More Score
Race 8
2 – Basilia – Comes in from Southern California after running 2nd vs tougher in last race earning the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 22% when dropping off after a claim – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (42 11-6-5).
3 – Centsational – Has finished in the money 100% of the time during her career – The trainer wins 23% of the time in Claiming races – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-3-1).
6 – Cultured – Has a High % winning trainer – Drops in class today.
10 – Meet the Beauty – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Blinkers added today
Alternate:
1 – Runaway Rockette
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 Furlongs AW, 63 Races, 44 won by speed, 25 w2w -PP: slight inside 3 bias
3 – DREAMING OF AUDREY – 1st off the claim, tr: Jose D’Angelo 27/88, two nice works since,
1 – BE NAUGHTY WITH ME – first time starter w/o a lot to beat here, some decent works getting ready, 25f works since Dec 31
2 – MAMA LONGLEGS – only E horse in the field, could get away with ez pace, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, top EP#s by a wide margin
4 – LATTE LOVER – Denzel at the Door, 5/0-0-3
Race 2 – 1 Mile Turf, 79 Races, 47 won by speed, 23 w2w -PP: slight 2/3 bias, 8+ penalty
1 – MAX K. O. -BTN FAV, Tr S Joseph, jr, 83/260, 2nd off layoff, huge LP# in last, 1 of 3 LRSP>PAR, Top EP/LP combo
6 – FREEDOM MATTERS – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, another LRSP>PAR, ITM 14/17 Turf, TOP EP#s by a little
4 – MANDATE – 3rd LRSP>PAR, Top Pedigree, DROP 200-37, Tr S Joseph, jr w 5/9
7 – GRACEFUL KITTEN – lone E horse in the field, small increase 2/4/LP improvement, would be dangerous if the pace is right
Race 3 – 1 Mile Dirt, 67 Races, 53 won by speed, 22 w2w -PP: even 1-7, 8+ bonus
1 – SOSOSUBTLE – should be close to the pace, Top EP/LP combo, should be better in 2nd off the layoff, maintenance work since
3 – CONVERTER – TLRSP#, Biggest DROP 54-19, will be hard to beat if he has the lead going into the stretch
6 – GODS PROMISE – can win as a stalker/presser, Top Pedigree, good work since last
7 – NAVAJO CREED – resume says better in 2nd off the layoff, could get a decent pace to chase as stalker/closer, top LP#
Race 4 – 1 1/8 Miles Dirt – 4 Races, 3 won by stkrs/clsrs, 1 w2w – PP: 3/4 4+
4 – KING CAB – ran 7f 3 seconds faster than #3, LRSP>PAR, won by 7 ¼ lengths,
3 – SWING SHIFT -top LP #s by a long shot, LRSP>PAR, won debut, well bet, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
6 – LITTLE VIC – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, top EP #s, speed, 1st time Lasix, DROP 250-61
5 – IN THE UNION – likely to catch a swift EP, sets up well for closer, top LP#s by a wide margin
Race 5 – 1 Mile 70 Yards AW – 92 Races, 52 won by stkrs/clsrs, 9 w2w -PP: slight inside out bias
6 – PAINTBRUSH – ITM 6/7 at Gulfstream, won last at distance/surface by 3 ¼ lengths, but some in-race regression is concerning
4 – VANDALIA – 3rd after a layoff, 2/4f pace improvement in last, OK work between races
1 – UKIYO – should be pace setter as only E horse in the race, could steal with right fractions, Top Pedigree
5 – SUSANS NOVELA – tough call over #3 ROSY APPLE, nice late pace improvement, well bet in last, 3SP# Increase
Race 6 – 5 Furlongs Turf – 40 Races, 26 won by speed, 17 w2w -PP: rail and 4-7 penalty
7 – THE VIRGINIAN – a lot of early speed here, does best a little off the pace, Top EP/LP Combo,
4 – SHEKKY SHEBAZ – should be part of the early pace, 2nd off a layoff, usually as good or better than 1st, good work between,
8 – CUCINA – top LP#s, LP off the charts in last, second after a layoff, spotty record, 11f works since last on Jan 22.
6 – INTO THE SUNRISE – off since November, 20f works since Jan 26, including bullet and go, Top Pedigree, Top Jockey Jose Ortiz, tough call over #1 NATURAL POWER
1 – NATURAL POWER –
Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs Dirt, 15 Races, 11 won by speed, 4 w2w -PP: Strong rail and 8+ bias
3 – KLUGMAN – Top LP vs a field with a bunch of E types, Top Pedigree, 1 of 4 LRSP>PAR, QTA Ran Feb 11
8 – YES I’M A BEAST – five wins in nine at Gulfstream, 1st off the claim 23/79 tr Rohan Crichton, LRSP>PAR, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
4 – CLAPTON – 3rd after a layoff, across the board PC improvements, LRSP>PAR, good work between
1 – HOORAYHOORAYHOORAY
Race 8 – 1 Mile Turf, 79 Races, 47 won by speed, 23 w2w -PP: slight 2/3 bias, 8+ penalty
2 – BASILIA – been off since November 14, lone win came following a similar rest, 32f works since Jan 6, get top Jock Jose
10 – MEET THE BEAUTY – is a ½ length from being undefeated in 2 with Paco Lopez, 17f of good works since last
5 – MIA AT MIDNIGHT – LRSP>PAR, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, good 2/4f pace improvement
6 – CULTURED – best races were fresh, debut win and 2nd by a neck in her last first start, 14f of good works since last on Dec 29
3 – CENTSATIONAL – want to rank higher, but more than a year off and just OK works
