Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog Pick 4
Philly BIG 5
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Race 1
2 – Owen’s Pleasure – Won his last two races in a row at PARX – She has the highest last race speed rating – Good 4F workout on 02Mar Parx 4f ft :48.2B 9/67.
5 – Elusive Amelia – Tried Laurel and now returns to PARX that she seems to like better – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-2).
4 – Lean On E – Finished in the money in the last six out of seven races at PARX, winning one of the races.
7 – Tilsa – Finished 3rd in her last race, increasing her speed rating in each of the last three races.
Race 2
5 – Kid d’Oro – Won his last race at PARX and earned the highest last race speed rating – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-2)
3 – Sevier – Has won six out of the last ten races – Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a good 4F workout on 02Mar Parx 4f ft :47.3 B 2/67.
7 – La Waun – Ran 2nd in last race and switches to a high% winning trainer.
2 – Pnutbutter Special – Ran 3rd in last race, likes the track and can handle the distance.
Alternate:
8 – Kadens Courage
4 – The Big Bluff
Race 3
5 – Walk Me Home – Has won two out of the last four races – She likes the distance finishing in the money 80% of the time, winning 20% of the time – She likes the track finishing in the money 75% of the time, winning 38% of the time.
4 – Gia’s Fuego – Won two races in a row at PARX – She has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
3 – Atina Salsa – Ran 2nd in her last race – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-2-2).
2 – Midtown Rose – She has the highest last race speed rating (tie), the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
6 – World Gone Wild
Race 4
2 – Shez a Doubletake – Ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race only losing by a head earning the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Fly Fly Bird – The trainer wins 23% of the races when going from a Route to a Sprint – She can improve while returning to a sprint – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 4-0-0).
5 – Suzy Q the Queen – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race at PARX.
1 – Pamalwaysgetseven – May improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
3 – Ruby Dooby Doo
Race 5
8 – Flashing Diamond – She ran 2nd in last race, has the highest last race speed rating, a high % winning trainer and Jockey – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Dilly Dilly Philly – Won her last race at PARX, has trainer/Jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-2) and a good 4F workout (Mar-01).
7 – Back Channel – Won her last two races in a row at PARX, now going for a hat trick.
6 – Always Talking – Ran 2nd in last race and has a Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-2-2).
Alternate:
2- Peak of Chic
Race 6
3 – Divine Miracle – Won three races in a row at PARX – He has a High % winning trainer and Jockey.
7 – Roan Mountain – Finished in the money in the last six races, winning one of the races – The trainer wins 28% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race.
4 – Double the Heart – Won his last two races in a row at PARX – He likes the track and can handle the distance.
5 – Doo Wop Don – Won three out of the last five races, running 2nd vs similar (on AW) in last race at PARX.
Alternate:
2 – Colonel Juan
Race#7
12 – Wagon Boss – He has won two out of the last three races – The trainer wins 19% of the time when bringing back the winner of their last race to race again.
6 – In Equality – Won his last two races in a row at PARX and has a good workout on 10Feb Parx 4f ft :48.3 B 4/35.
1 – Grit’n’grind – Closed in his last race to only lose by a nose – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-2).
4 – Social Group – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and received the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
5 – American Fleet
7 – Factor This In
Race 8
10 – Miss Dillingham – She has won three out of the last four races – She has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-2).
6 – Malibu Anthem – Won four races in a row at PARX – The Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-0-0).
4 – Tiz a Sharpie – Won two races in a row at PARX – The trainer wins 66% of the time when running a horse back after a win.
3 – Fleeterthan – Won two races of the last three races at PARX – The trainer wins 33% of the time when dropping off a win – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
7 – Hay Buck
Race 9
7 – Exit Right – Won two races in a row at PARX – Has the highest last race speed rating and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-3-2) – Good 4F workout on 02Mar Parx 4f ft :47ª B 2/67.
9 – Secret Path – He has won two out of the last three races at PARX and has high % winning trainer Louis Linder, Jr.
3 – Silver Edge – Finished in the money in the last three races running 3rd in last race.
2 – Big Beautiful Wall – Won two races in a row at PARX, going for a hat trick.
Race 10
1 – Beverly Park – Ran 2nd in last race – Has the highest last race speed rating and the trainer wins 34% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race – Can improve at the shorter distance – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
9 – Brazen – Finished in the money in the last ten races at PARX, winning six of the races.
10 – Royal Blue Boy – Ran 2nd in his last race – He has the best dirt speed among today’s starters (tie) – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-1-0)
11 – Portal One – He has won his last four races – Switches to a high% winning trainer and jockey – The trainer wins 25% of the time when he drops a horse off a claim – He has a good 3F workout (Mar-03).
Alternate:
7 – Studio B
Race 11
7 – Mamaigotthis – She won last race at PARX – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 5-2-3).
8 – The Right Path – Finished in the money in the last three races running 2nd in the last race losing by only a neck – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (11 3-2-2).
13 – Taino – Finished 4th Beaten only 2- lengths vs similar in last start – She has a high % winning trainer.
10 – Samaronti – Can close from deep to win and drops in class.
Alternate:
12 – Load Up Moe
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 63 Races, 43 won speed by speed, 16 w2w -PP: Small Inside 3 and 8+ Bonus
There isn’t a lot of early get out of the gate and go horses in here. Odd are the winner will be close to the pace all the way around the track.
2 – OWEN’S PLEASURE – 4SP# Increases, nice 2/4F improvement in his last, LRSP>PAR, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, top LP#s by a big margin
7 – TILSA – track drop from GP/Laurel – Parx 8/3-1-2, 2nd off layoff, solid LP Improvement in last, Top Pedigree
5 – ELUSIVE AMELIA – BTN FAV Tr Jamie Ness 185/659, serious regression in last at Laurel, worrisome, but best LP#s for a horse that should be close to the lead
4 – LEAN ON E
Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs – 25 Races, 16 won by speed, 11 w2w -PP: Strong rail and inside 3 bias, 8>4-7
Another race where there isn’t an overabundance of speed. Expect a horse close to the pace to make it home first.
7 – LA WAUN – going to take a shot here, nice 2f/LP improvement in last, top EP#s by a little
3 – SEVIER – winner 9/11 at Parx, ugly race last out, could rebound, but nasty regression in last
5 – KID D’ORO – 3rd after a layoff, upped 2/4/LP#s in last, TLRSP#, LRSP>PAR, 3SP# Increases, worried about a bounce
2 – PNUTBUTTER SPECIAL – chased some quick fractions in his last, could improve in 2nd off bench
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs – 64 Races, 43 won by speed, 17 w2w – PP: rail 1 win, all other even
This one looks a lot like the last race, not too many boom or bust frontrunners. Speed of Speed or a fast one with the best late legs likely gets the job done here.
5 – WALK ME HOME – Parx 8/3-3-0, should sit off the pace with top LP#s
6 – WORLD GONE WILD – track drop from GP, Ruben Silvera gets off #4, three works, 2 very strong at Parx, plenty of giddy up and go with Fastest 1/4 Fractions
4 – GIA’S FUEGO – won 2 in a row, ITM Parx 9/3-3-1, Distance 6/3-2-0, noticeable LP# increase in last
3 – ATINA SALSA – 2nd off the bench, decent work since, tough call over #2, better PARX Record
2 – MIDTOWN ROSE – 2nf half race #s got better in last, 3SP# increases
Race 4 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 27 Races, 20 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: Small 2/3 penalty, all else even
Half the field probably doesn’t have a chance as they’ve shown nothing to date. Only two of the remaining four probably go forward out of the gate, one of them is most likely the winner.
2 – SHEZ A DOUBLETAKE – TLRSP#, 3rd off a layoff, LP# jumped in last, same back speed w/ Fastest 1/4 Fractions
6 – LUNA FORTUNA – far and away top EP#s, usually breaks clean, could shake free and be tough to catch without a lot of pressure. If he can hit the ½ in over 47, they might not pass him.
7 – CALIENTE RUM – showed some early pop in his second career start before fading hard in his last, gets 1st Lasix, doesn’t have a lot to beat in here.
Race 5 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 27 Races, 20 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: Small 2/3 penalty, all else even
Five of the eight in this group want the lead, that should set a pace that favors horses with late energy.
8 – FLASHING DIAMOND – Distance 5/4-1-0, should get plenty of pace w/ top LP#s but shouldn’t be too far off the pace
1 – DILLY DILLY PHILLY – 3SP# Increases and should sit right behind pilot/co-pilot and run by in the stretch
7 – BACK CHANNEL – 3rd off a layoff, won the first two by at least 4 ¼ lengths, 2/2 at PARX w 2/4f improvement in last
6 – ALWAYS TALKING – could be the speed of the speed (or#2) but tends to break better
Race 6 – 1 1/16 Miles – 13 Races, 7 won by stalkers/closers, 4 w2w – PP: absolute 4+ bias, 1 win 1-3
There isn’t a lot of early pace in here with four of seven preferring to come from mid-pack and back. The winner is likely to be close to the front all the way around the track.
3 – DIVINE MIRACLE – is undefeated in 3 at Parx and should be close to the front from start to finish
7 – ROAN MOUNTAIN – has the best LP#s, improved 2/4f pace numbers in last, ITM 12/13 at Distance
2 – COLONEL JUAN – only in the field w/ LRSP>PAR on Jan 19th, one OK work since
5 – BUMPERDOO
Race 7 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 63 Races, 43 won speed by speed, 16 w2w -PP: Small Inside 3 and 8+ Bonus
There is a lack of early tempo here and should favor horses near the front from the word go.
2 – JAMMIN JIMTOWN – chased a hotter than average pace in the last and shouldn’t see that here, 44/LP# improvements in last, 3rd off a layoff, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
1 – GRIT’N’GRIND – just missed in his last with impressive late run, 3SP# increased, 3rd off the bench
12 – WAGON BOSS – another making 3rd start after a layoff, better from start to finish last out, weight break, PARX 4/2-0-2
4 – SOCIAL GROUP – has the top EP/LP combo in the field with the top EP#s by a little, Top Pedigree
Race 8 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 63 Races, 43 won speed by speed, 16 w2w -PP: Small Inside 3 and 8+ Bonus
There is some cheap speed in here that tends to fade when pressured, the speed of speed might steal this, but more likely a stalker with late kick takes this.
10 – MISS DILLINGHAM – only LRSP>PAR, across the board improvement in last, good works since last
4 – TIZ A SHARPIE – 3rd off a layoff, can win from front, middle, back, TOP EP/LP Combo, ITM 6/7 at Distance – Tie Top Pedigree
3 – FLEETERTHAN – could be pacesetter with Fastest 1/4 Fractions, been more of a stalker of late, distance is a big question
6 – MALIBU ANTHEM – PARX 5/4-0-0, no wins in 14 elsewhere, Tie Top Pedigree
Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles – 13 Races, 7 won by stalkers/closers, 4 w2w – PP: absolute 4+ bias, 1 win 1-3
There is a lack of early speed here, get to the front at a decent pace and you might be the winner.
7 – EXIT RIGHT – should be able to set the pace without much pressure, LRSP>PAR
9 – SECRET PATH – one of the few in here that showed improvement I his last, PARX 4/2-1-1,
4 – THEY SHOT SONNY – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, Top Pedigree, 2nd off a layoff
3 – SILVER EDGE – tough call over #2, has the second best EP/LP combo
Race 10 – 5 ½ Furlongs – 27 Races, 20 won by speed, 10 w2w – PP: Small 2/3 penalty, all else even
This one should have plenty of early pace 8 of the 10 in here need to be on/near the lead to win.
9 – BRAZEN – should be close to the lead and showed better LP in last, 4th of a layoff, best of 4 race cycle last out
11 – PORTAL ONE – is three for three at Parx, first race since Dec 22, won last fresh start, 14f works since Jan 28, including bullet at go
10 – ROYAL BLUE BOY – major EP/LP improvement in last, ITM 6/7 at distance
6 – SNEAKINESS – Top EP and EP/LP combo, Top Pedigree
Race 11 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – 63 Races, 43 won speed by speed, 16 w2w -PP: Small Inside 3 and 8+ Bonus
They could walk in this one as 8 of 11 have only won closing. Get to the front and you have a chance to go wire to wire.
5 – NIMBLE BEAST – has the top EP by a decent margin and the Top EP/LP Combo, decent 4f improvement in last
13 – TAINO – look out if he breaks sharply as he could get to the front and not look back, BTN FAV – tr; Felix Flores-Coba 5/15
4 – MR THRIFTY – TLRSP# >PAR, 2nd off bench
7 – MAMAIGOTTHIS – 2f/LP improvement in last, ITM 8/11 at distance, will be rolling downhill at the end
