Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Finger Lakes Full Card Picks
Terry’s Horseshoe Indianapolis Best Bet
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Charles Town
Finger Lakes Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Kaufy Futures – She won her last race at Finger Lakes, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and her trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-0).
1 – Royalbonnielegacy – She comes in from Penn National after finishing 3rd in her last race back to Finger Lakes where she has won four out of twelve starts – The trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (6 3-0-1).
3 – Big Cyn – She finished 3rd in her last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-2-3).
5 – Tuxedo Lemon – She likes the track finishing in the money 83% of the time, winning 17% of the races and does well at today’s distance finishing in the money 70% of the time, winning 15% of the races.
Alternate:
4 – Magnificent Mags
Race 2
1 – Christmas Dinner – She ran 2nd in her last race receiving the highest last race speed rating (tie), she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning Jockey.
6 – Do What It Takes – She likes the track finishing in the money 68% of the time, winning 27% of the races and likes today’s distance finishing in the money 66% of the time, winning 22% of the races.
3 – Anselmi – She won her last race at Finger Lakes and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Kateri Empire – She has been off since last November but has a good 5F workout on 05May FL 5f gd 1:01¨ B 1/3.
Alternate:
4 – Il Mio Amore
2 – Chasing Losses
Race 3
1 – Special Story – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and the rail post is winning at a 22% clip – Should improve while returning to a sprint and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Margarita Sunrise – He has been off since last November and this is his first race back where he finished 2nd vs tougher, and he now drops in class today – He has the highest last race speed rating; the trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Not a Trick – His early speed running style helps chances, the trainer wins 27% of the time in sprints and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (6 3-0-1).
6 – A Maize Zing Rip – He comes back from Penn National to Finger Lakes where he has finished in the money 50% of the time, winning 22% of the time.
Alternate:
2 – Henny Hefner
3 – Goldmine Kaz
Race 4
5 – Miss Pab – She comes in from Aqueduct to try to break her maiden at Finger Lakes and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer wins 28% of the time when using Lasix, the 2nd time and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-1-0).
7 – All About Bella – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start – Her trainer wins 17% of the time in an entries 2nd career race and she was well bet in debut.
6 – Tina Burner – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race at Finger Lakes.
8 – Wow spelled backward – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start.
Alternate:
1 – Sweet Sugar Baby
3 – Single Purpose
Race 5
4 – Blues City – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a trainer who in the last 14days has this record (5 3-0-0).
6 – Deputy Flag – He finished in the money in three out of four races at Finger Lakes, winning one of the races – His trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 4-0-0) and he has a bullet workout on 18Apr Bel tr.t 4f ft :48¨ B 1/31.
3 – Florida Endeavour – He drops in class today and has won the only time he ran at today’s distance.
1 – Smokin’ Alone – He had a disappointing race in his first race he has had since last year, but experienced trouble during the race, the rail post is winning at 22% clip and the trainer wins 21% of the time in the 2nd race off a layoff.
Alternate:
2 – Stone Guitar
5 – Two Step Slew
Race 6
2 – Bosship – He comes in from Aqueduct to try Finger Lakes for the first time – The trainer wins 27% of the time when shipping a horse in – May improve at the shorter distance and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
1 – Battle Map – He came in from Aqueduct and ran 3rd vs similar in his first race at Finger Lakes, receiving the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Ach Du Lieber – He should improve while returning to a sprint – Lasix added.
6 – Trisaetum – He has finished in the money in 50% of the races at Finger Lakes and trainer who wins 19% of the time when bringing a horse back after being away 90+ days.
Alternate:
3 – Hurricane Alpha
4 – Pars Hey Zeus
Race 7
6 – Sniff – She ran 2nd vs similar in his last race earning the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer wins 21% of the time in allowance races.
3 – Left Leaning Lucy – She is another horse that came in from Aqueduct after finishing 3rd to try Finger Lakes for the first time – The trainer wins 17% of the time in sprints and she has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (6 3-0-1).
5 – Trivia – She is having a good year finishing in the money 61% of the time, winning 23% of the races – She has a decent workout on 23Apr FL 4f ft :49 B 5/23.
7 – Steal My Heart– She should improve while returning to Dirt and the shorter distance is a plus.
Alternate:
4 – Imprsstheprofessor
Race 8
2 – Nightspot – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has finished 100% of the time in the money, winning one of the races at Finger Lakes.
1 – Holy Cowboy – She won her last race at Finger Lakes and her trainer Debra Breed is winning at a 30% clip.
9 – Navy Pier – She came in from PARX Racing finished 2nd only beaten a neck and was claimed by trainer Tina Chamberlin who wins 50% of the races after claiming a horse.
7 – Big Brown Shoes – She has the highest last race speed rating and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 4-0-0).
Alternate:
5 – Tapit Happy John
6 – One Whirlwind Ride
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 mile 70 yards, 0 races
2 – KAUFY FUTURES – TLRSP#, could improve in 2nd start off a layoff
1 – ROYALBONNIELEGACY – comes in from Penn, has run at Flakes, 11/15 ITM at the distance, 2 works since last race
3 – BIG CYN – ran 3rd behind KAUFY FUTURES in last, tr Karl Grusmark and jy J Davis win 6/16 +1.65 ROI
5 – TUXEDO LEMON – ITM 10/12 at Flakes 12/2-4-4, a pair of maintenance works since last start
Race 2 – 6 furlongs, 3 races, 100% speed, 1 w2w -PP: all winners 1-3
1 – CHRISTMAS DINNER – keep an eye on KUAFY FUTURES In race on, this one finished 2nd to her last out,
6 – DO WHAT IT TAKES – been in the barn since Late November, 16f works since March 31, tr James Acquilano 19% winner 90+ days away.
2 – CHASING LOSSES – 2nd off the break, was brutal in last, but moves way down in clast to a level that she can handle, has a decent 3f work in last, telling me tr Brent Bond wants to get off to a better start
3 – ANSELMI – hasn’t raced since November, 14f works since April 8
Race 3 – 4 ½ furlongs, 22 races, 20 won by speed, 17 w2w -PP: rail bias, inside out bias
1 – SPECIAL STORY – LS – if the old man – 10yo – is ready, he has some of the best EP#s and could get the lead, 14f works getting ready
4 – MARGARITA SUNRISE – TLRSP#, drops in class, had the lead in the stretch in his last, maybe better 2nd off the sidelines
5 – NOT A TRICK – comes in from Charles Town for tr Bernard Dunham, wins at 23% with shippers +0.44 ROI, better 4/LP# in last
6 – A MAIZE ZING RIP – much better in first ½ mile of last effort, shortens from 6f, which should help
Race 4 – 5 ½ furlongs, 4 races, 100% won by speed, 2 w2w -PP: all winners 2-7
1 – SWEET SUGAR BABY – track drop from AQ for tr Jeffrey Englehart, should be better in 3rd start off the bench
5 – MISS PAB – has run the best of these at Flakes, 3/0-2-1, come in from a horrible race at AQ, 2nd Lasix 29% winner for tr Jeremiah Englehart
7 – ALL ABOUT BELLA – debut had issues, was well bet, maybe less green in race number 2
4 – RACING QUEEN – looks as good as the rest, might as well take the 15-1 odds and J Davis, who is winning at 30%.
Race 5 – 4 ½ furlongs, 22 races, 20 won by speed, 17 w2w -PP: rail bias, inside out bias
6 – DEPUTY FLAG – has the top EP in the race and is making his 3rd start off the bench, not a fan off the odds
3 – FLORIDA ENDEAVOUR – has some of the better workouts for the horses coming off a long break
4 – BLUES CITY – workouts stink, but does have a history of getting off to a fast start, considering the speed bias it could be enough
1 – SMOKIN’ ALONE – has the top LP in the race and gets the high win rate rail, win, probably not but fills up exotics at the wire
Race 6 – 6 furlongs, 3 races, 100% speed, 1 w2w -PP: all winners 1-3
2 – BOSSHIP – track drop from AQ and was running better #s at Aqueduct than BATTLE MAP
1 – BATTLE MAP – TLRSP# and should step it up in his second off the bench
6 – TRISAETUM – been off since November 23rd, has 21f works since March 27, including bullet on April 29th
5 – ACH DU LIEBER – tough call over #7, but story is the same for both, 1st Lasix, but ACH DU LIEBER ran better numbers as a 3 yo than #7 ran in his debut as a 3 yo, expected a bigger better 4 yo
Race 7 – 5 ½ furlongs, 4 races, 100% won by speed, 2 w2w -PP: all winners 2-7
6 – SNIFF – TLRSP#, most consistent performer in the field, best Flakes #s by a little
7 – STEAL MY HEART – horse for the course? Has 3 wins in 7 at Flakes, 0 wins in 21 elsewhere
3 – LEFT LEANING LUCY – track drop from NYRA, has a good work at Flakes
5 – TRIVIA – has been working better than the 4, better Flakes numbers than the 4, Distance 7/0-2-3
Race 8 – 5 ½ furlongs, 4 races, 100% won by speed, 2 w2w -PP: all winners 2-7
7 – BIG BROWN SHOES – BB – TLRSP#, track drop from AQ, tr/jy winning at crazy rates, jy Andre Worrie 7/16 and tr Jeffrey Englehart 5/11
8 – MISTER LARRY – been trending way lower versus the toughest by far, solid work and gets his confidence back
2 – NIGHTSPOT – could be better in 2nd start off the bench, W/P/S in 3 at Flakes, 0 for 6 at NYRAs
1 – HOLY COWBOY – coming off the maiden win in 15 tries, usually not the biggest fan, but that race was better than any of the others, could be better in his 2nd start after layoff since November 22nd
