Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Churchill Downs Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips and Analysis
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Hannah’s Haven – She is dropping in class, the trainer wins 21% of the races when using 2nd time Lasix, Smokin Joe Talamo is in the irons and she has a good 5F workout on 24Apr CD 5f ft 1:00.1 B 7/32.
6 – Cycologist – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – I’m Stylin – She finished 8th in her last race after a bobble at the start, now drops in class today and returns to Churchill Downs where she had a 2nd last year.
2 – Sonador – She has early speed, drops in class today, the trainer wins 20% of the races in the 2nd race after a layoff and may improve with blinkers being added today.
Alternate:
5 – Hush Hush
3 – My Daddy’s Trainer
Race 2
1A- Ever a Rebel – Ever a Rebel,s Sire wins 50% of the time with 1st time starters, his dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner, and he has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days that has this record (10 4-1-2).
7 – Mo’s Treasure – He closed to finish 3rd in his debut race at 4-1/2 furlongs and now stretches out to 5-furlongs.
3 – Bling Bling Bling – First time starter – His Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters, breeding suits today’s sprint distance, jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-1-2) and Sharp 4F workout (Apr-28).
5 – Book of Kells – First time starter – Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and 1 stakes winner and breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
Alternate:
8 – Cigarette Boat
4 – Hardmoneymuchachos
Race 3
4 – Yes Sir Robert – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has a trainer who wins 22% of the time in claiming races and he has a decent workout.
2 – Majestic West – He drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 17% of the time in claiming races and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Westward Look – He has early speed and has been running in 1-mile races fading at the end and now cuts back to 6-furlongs which will help and returning to dirt may help.
5 – Incitatus – He has won two races in a row going for a hat – The trainer wins 22% of the races after a 46-90 day break good 4F workout on 24Apr CD 4f ft :48.1 B 15/58.
Alternate:
6 – Z U At the Races
Race 4
1 – Jonas’ Dream – First time starter – His Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner, the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (11 3-2-3) and he has a bullet 5F workout on 26Apr Kee 5f ft 1:00.2B 1/13.
7 – Edge of Glory – He drops in class today after getting the highest last race speed rating and he has the highest Prime Power: 123.4 (1st) in the race.
2 – Smarty John – He has the trainer who wins 25% of the races when going from Maiden-to-Maiden Claiming, he has the best dirt speed among today’s starters and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-1-1).
6 – Bernie Lomax – Should improve while returning to the dirt, he has a trainer who wins 17% of the races when going from Turf to Dirt, the shorter distance will help, and he has a good 4F workout 27Apr CD 4f ft :47.4 B 7/30.
Alternate:
5 – C J All the Way
4 – Right of Rush
Race 5
7 – English Treasure – He has finished in the money in three out of three career races, he has a trainer who wins 18% of the races when he brings a horse back after being off 90+ days and a good 4F workout on Apr-27.
5 – Al Qahira – He has a lot of early speed and if he gets a good break, he could lead all the way – He has finished in the money in three out of four career races, earning the highest last race speed rating and a trainer in the last 14 days has this record (11 5-1-0).
9 – Curiously – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race only missing by ½ a length and his best turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
8 – Fits the Jill– His breeding suggests he will like the grass, his Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and 1 Turf winner, and he has several good workouts in a row.
Alternate:
2 – Red Light Racer
Race 6
2 – Silk Trade – He ran 2nd missing by a head in his only start after having trouble during the race and earning the highest last race speed rating – He has a decent workout on 27Apr Haw 5f ft 1:01.4 B 4/10.
3 – Kissalot – He has finished in the money in three out of four races this year and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
7 – Mr Sippi – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1A – Money Mike – He has finished in the money in two out of two races, winning one and the trainer wins 18% of the races in sprints. He can handle the distance.
Race 7
6 – Bagboss – He has finished in the money in six out of six career races, finishing 2nd vs similar in last race – He has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer who wins 17% of the races in sprint races – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-3-6).
5 – Milliken – He has finished in the money in five out of five career races, finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has a trainer who wins 18% of the races in the 3rd race off a layoff and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Smokin Willie – He won his last race at Oaklawn and jockey Joel Rosario in the last 14 days has this record (14 4-1-2).
1 – Speight’spercomete – He came from Dubai and won his first race in the USA and then the next two were mediocre, he now has had a bullet workout on 28Apr CD 5f ft :59.1 B 1/9 which may mean he is back on track plus the trainer adds blinkers.
Alternate:
2 – Schmoozin
Race 8
6 – Tulane Tryst – He has won two out of his last three races, finishing 2nd vs tougher in the last race and drops in class today –. He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and a good 4F workout on 24Apr Kee 4f ft :47.4 B 3/58.
4 – Top Gunner He has finished in the money in the last six races, winning two of them – He likes the distance winning four out of eleven races.
3 – Bango – He has finished 4th in his last race only losing by two lengths and has won three out of the last five of the races.
5 – Sir Alfred James – He should improve while returning to dirt, the trainer wins 18% of the races in sprints, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Race 9
7 – Sooley – He won his debut race at the Fairgrounds – The trainer who wins 24% of the races in the next race after a horse’s maiden win and he has a good workout on 24Apr CD ˜ (d) 4f fm :49.4 B 4/10.
5 – Big Invasion – He has won two races in a row going for a hat trick in this race and earned the highest last race speed rating – He has a trainer who wins 22% of the races in sprints, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-1-2) and he has a bullet workout 4F workout on 24Apr Pay 4f ft :48.4B 1/5.
9 – Lucci – He has finished in the money in three out of four career races, finishing 2nd vs similar in last race.
2 – Candy Landing – He won his last race at the Fairgrounds and the trainer wins 18% of the races in Non-Graded Stakes.
Alternate:
3 – B D Valeski
Race 10
3 – Butterbean – She has finished in the money in three out of her four career races, getting the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Opening Night – She finished 7th after breaking out at the start and going wide in the turns – She has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-1-2) and a good 4F workout on 24Apr CD 4f ft :47.4 B 8/58.
8 – Byzantine – She finished 3rd (on AW) in last race and her trainer wins 26% of the races when going from maiden to maiden claiming races.
7 – Lead Me – She finished 3rd in her only start, the trainer wins 25% of the races when going from maiden to maiden claiming races and she can improve at the longer distance.
Alternate:
2 – Late Night Lady
1 – Just a Nyquist
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 7 furlongs, 45 races, 27 won by speed, 8 w2w – PP: mostly fair
4 – ROSES FOR ASHLEY – LS – getting between a 7 -13 pound weight break, only TC Drop in the field, 1st Lasix and a decent work on April 19th
6 – CYCOLOGIST – TLRSP#, limited resume says she could be better in 3rd off the break
7 – I’M STYLIN – drops in class, has some CD experience = best CD#s
1 – HANNAH’S HAVEN – drops two classes, 27% angle for tr Dale Romans, 2nd off the break, questionable
Race 2 – 5 furlongs, 2 races, 100% speed, 1 w2w – PP: 1 from rail, other 2/3
3 – BLING BLING BLING – best workouts for the first-time starters
1A – CLASSICAL – Wesley Ward hits at 30% with first timers, works for both OK
2 – TWO OF A KIND – going straight Jared with next two, taking first timers looking for a price, gets rails, some good works
8 – CIGARETTE BOAT – 100K horse, better pedigree #s than the rest, but not by much
5 – BOOK OF KELLS – sticking with 1st timers hoping for a price
Race 3 – 6 furlongs, 85 races, 58 won by speed, 22 w2w – PP: mostly fair
4 – YES SIR ROBERT – missed by a neck in his last, better fractions at 6.5f better than 6f, better 4f/LP in 1st with Reylu Guitierrez, back again
2 – MAJESTIC WEST – 2nd best CD#s by a little behind #4, drops in class, some of best LP#s
1 – WESTWARD LOOK – has some EP on turf, tends to fade under pressure, if he can hold the lead in the lane, might have a chance
6 – Z U AT THE RACES – 4SP# increases, better ATB in his last, better fractions too
Race 4 – 6 furlongs, 85 races, 58 won by speed, 22 w2w – PP: mostly fair
7 – EDGE OF GLORY – TLRSP#s, better 2/4f numbers, TC Drop, 100 MSW to 50k MCL
6 – BERNIE LOMAX – some good works since last outing on March 27, declining form but some signs of life in last race
1 – JONAS’ DREAM – 1st time starter without much to beat beyond top pick(s)
4 – RIGHT OF RUSH – decent debut speed #, moves up in class, fast work in last 3f in 35.2, 1st of 25
Race 5 – 1 1/8 miles turf, 0 races
5 – AL QAHIRA – TLRSP#, could be better in round 2, where he is 2/0-2-0
9 – CURIOUSLY – will be closing with strong LP#s,
1 – PURE COUNTRY – right behind #9 in her last, will be way back and flying late, bullet work in Apr 28, so maybe move a little closer to the front here?
12 – AMENSET – has top EP#s, and has some solid LP – gets Mike Smith – last night’s guest
Race 6 – 6 furlongs, 85 races, 58 won by speed, 22 w2w – PP: mostly fair
7 – MR SIPPI – first time gelded, going to run angry, dropping in class, been off since mid-Sept 15f of improving works since March 31
2 – SILK TRADE – TLRSP# at Hawthorne, track upgrade here, increased SP# in every race
1A – MONEY MIKE –
4 – FAIR HAIRED BOY – drops in class, should improve in 2nd off the bench, 2nd start w/ tr Kenneth McPeek 4/12 winner
Race 7 – 6 furlongs, 85 races, 58 won by speed, 22 w2w – PP: mostly fair
6 – BAGBOSS – TLRSP#, better ATB in his last, bullet work since, ITM 6/1-4-1, CD 2/1-1-0, Distance 2/0-2-0
5 – MILLIKEN – a little better number in his last, 3SP# increases in his last, been the heavy favorite 3 in a row
7 – SMOKIN WILLIE – won his last, improving with first time Lasix, Steve Asmussen horse’s win at 22% 2nd Lasix, some good works
4 – BURNINHUNKOFLOVE – flips from turf to dirt, 22% angle for tr Alber Stall, jr
Race 8 – – 6 furlongs, 85 races, 58 won by speed, 22 w2w – PP: mostly fair
6 – TULANE TRYST – CD 2/1-1-0, Distance 5/3-2-0, tied for TLRSP# and drops, a trio of muscular workouts since last race
3 – BANGO – is horse for the course with 6 wins in 11 races, just 2 in 10 elsewhere
4 – TOP GUNNER – 7 High Quality races in last eight outings, really strong uptick in 2/4f numbers last out
5 – SIR ALFRED JAMES – horse for the course, 9/5-0-2 at CD, 16/4-4-2 elsewhere
Race 9 – 5 ½ furlongs turf, 0 races
4 – ASYMMETRIC – strong effort in two of three on a good surface in England, some nice workouts since coming to US
7 – SOOLEY – impressive debut with strong start and mid move, decently bet, upgrade to Flavien Prat
9 – LUCCI –should be close to the front and better in 2nd off the layoff for tr Wesley Ward, 30% angle
8 – MILLENNIAL MOON – makes US debut from England, worried he might prefer softer footing
Race 10 – 1 1/16 miles, 77 races, 52 won by speed, 25 w2w – PP: 4-7 best, 1-3>8+ penalty
3 – BUTTERBEAN – TLRSP#, three 2nds in four races, better 2/4 EP#s and best LP#s
9 – OPENING NIGHT – best race of 5 was over Churchill course, Eddie C angle , bullet, maintenance and then go
8 – BYZANTINE – BTN Favorite in last, tr Rodolphe Brisset rebounds at 23%, upgrade to Flavien Prat
1 – JUST A NYQUIST – only bullet work was first on CD April 26th, Mike Smith Angle
