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Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Analysis | 11 Races Fast & Firm – Let’s Go!

Horseshoe Indianapolis delivers an 11-race card this Humpday with fast dirt and firm turf conditions—setting up a fun, competitive day of racing. With ideal track conditions across the board, today’s focus shifts to pace, positioning, and finding horses that fit the race shape while offering value. This full-card breakdown uses Smart Sheets to identify: Horses most likely to be forward at the quarter mile Pace control and projected race flow Total Pace and C-Zone advantages Simulated odds compared to the morning line Profile of a Winner indicators by surface and distance With both dirt and turf races in play, the emphasis is on identifying which horses can secure early position and carry it through, while also spotting overlooked runners that may be live at a price. In addition to race-by-race analysis, we’ll highlight: Best Bet opportunities Value plays Multi-race wagering angles Fast and firm usually leads to cleaner trips—but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value. Let’s find it.

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Terry’s Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis – 5-13-2026

Race 1

6 – Darkestachievement: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Bullet 5F workout (Apr-23).

7 – Concho’s Prayer: Drops in class today; The high % winning trainer wins 19% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning jockey.

3 – Covert Kid: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good3F workout (Mat-02).

Longshot:

2 – Tank Walk: Has a previous win at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Drops in class today.

Alternate:

4 – Instinctually

Race 2

2 – Allbarknobite: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Good trainer and jockey stats.

4 – Amigomeister: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning jockey.

5 – Cool Hunting: Drops in class today; Longer distance offers hope for improvement.

Longshot:

3 – El Siereno: The trainer wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint to route; Has a high % winning jockey.

Alternate:

7 – Little Rock Jack

$1.00 Pick 4: 2,4,5/4,5/5,6/3,5,6,9 – Cost $48.00 

Race 3-

5 – Stuck in Park: Finished 4th as the favorite after trouble in the race; The high % winning trainer wins 28% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning jockey.

4 – Coaxed: Finished 3rd vs similar in both career race; Has a high % winning trainer.

1 – C U Whenugetthere: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Good jockey stats.

Longshot:

2 – Taylor’s Moonshine: Early speed running style helps chances; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

6 – Money Monday

3 – Chabelo

Race 4-

6 – Tiz Eddie: Likes Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing in the money in 80% of the races, winning 33% of the starts; At today’s distance, finishing in the money in 91% of the races, winning 45% of the starts.

3 – Sir Bahjy: Finished in the money in 7 races out of the last 9 starts, winning 3 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

5 – Invictus: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races in the 2nd start with this trainer.

Longshot:

4 – Miracle Worker: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

7 – Mike’s Cyclone

Race 5Female

3 – Lo Machar: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer stats.

6 – Pernicious: Drops in class today; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

9 – Eurcool: Has an early foot: Drops in class today.

Longshot:

5 – Loveitorleaveit: Strong trainer and jockey stats; Lasix added.

Alternate:

1 – Selena’s Wish

Race -6-

5 – Midnite in Finley: Finished in the money in 2 races out of 3 career turf starts; Can improve while returning to Turf; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Justhappytobehere: Finished in the money in 5 races out of the last 7 starts, winning 3 races; Can handle the distance.

4 – Sambalover: Won last race at Turfway Park; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

7 – Azoi: Won last race at Turfway Park; Highest last race speed rating; Highest speed figure at today’s distance.

Alternate:

2 – Passing Judgment

1 – Tiempos Buenos

Race-7-

3 – Sleepy: Won 4 races in a row at Horseshoe Indianapolis, going for a 5th win; Likes the distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

12 – Run Away Rojo: Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer; Good 4F workout (May-02).

10 – Slam Dunk Justice: Won last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

7 – Molly’s Town: Likes Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing in the money in 84% of the races, winning 32% of the starts; At today’s distance, finishing in the money in 79% of the races, winning14% of the starts.

Alternate:

6 – Zolo

$1.00 Pick 4: 3,12/4,11/1,2,3,7/1,6,7 – Cost $48.00

Race 8-Female

4 – East Jabip: Won both career starts; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

11 – Hit Parade Won 3 races of 6 career starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (May-07).

3 – Back Ring Buzz: Finished in the money in 5 races out of 9 career starts, winning 1 race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

5 – Hollybygolly: Won 2 races out of the last 4 starts; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

8 – How About Now

10 – Aggressive Lime

Bet: $20.00 Win: 4 – $10.00 Exacta Box:4/11 – $10.00 Exacta: 4/3,5,11 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 3,4,11

Race 9-Female

3 – Ekati Flatter: Likes Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing in the money in 77% of the races, winning 36% of the starts; At today’s distance, finishing in the money in 85% of the races, winning 31% of the starts.

7 – Werk It Wendy: Won 3 races out of the last 4 starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

2 – Hot Middles: Won last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Strong jockey stats.

Longshot:

1 – Don’t Miss Out: Finished in the money in 4 races out of the last 5 starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

4 – Imagine the Moon

5 – Three Coats

Race 10-Female

7 – Amani’s Music: Beaten only 2-lengths vs tougher in last start; Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Jr Miss Buttercup: Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Strong jockey stats.

6 – Diamond Rock Hill: First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

3 – La Puma: Drops in class today; Best turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.

Alternate:

10 – No Self Control

8 – Startin Trouble

Race 11- Quarter Horses

9 – Absolute Domination: Finished in the money in 2 races out of 3 career starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Seeudontwannabu: Finished in the money in 3 races out the last 4 starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer.

6 – Cv B Dynamic: Won last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

8 – One Grand Eagle: Won last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

4 – Beach Feature

7 – Dashin Quick Corona

Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #4 – East Jabip

Rich’s Picks

Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs – Inside Speed

3 – COVERT KID – can run big races and has +7 AVG SIM SP# and Top TOTAL PACE +8

6 – DARKESTACHIEVEMENT – on the lead – all by myself with top C ZONE

7 – CONCHO’S PRAYER – 3rd up ML FAV but 0/4 at the distance

4 – INSTINCTUALLY – lone Closer vs all middle forward

Race 2: 1 Mile – Stalkers with Strong 8+ Bias – Rest are Similar

4 – AMIGOMEISTER – even money SIM FAV and Only YES – take a shot at beating 4/5 ML fav

2 – ALLBARKNOBITE – this is the ML FAV with a 3 length TOTAL PACE edge

7 – LITTLE ROCK JACK – MSW class dropper at one of the biggest prices – 2nd race

5 – COOL HUNTING – came within 1 point of hitting PAR

$1 Pick 4: 2,4/1,4,5/3,4,5,6/2,6

Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Outside In Early Speed

1 – C U WHENUGETTHERE – 3rd race bounce back

5 – STUCK IN PARK – 2nd race PARABILITY vs all noes – lone class drop (small)

4 – COAXED – top C ZONE with most LP – nearly a length

2 – TAYLOR’S MOONSHINE – on the lead in 2nd up – tough call over the 6

$2 Pick 3: 1,5/3,5,6/2,6

Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Outside In Early Speed

5 – INVICTUS – TLRSP#+ 4 – Pacesetting Track Dropper from Oaklawn

6 – TIZ EDDIE – SIM SPEED# AVG +6 and +5 Top TOTAL PACE – ITM 10/11 at the Distance

3 – SIR BAHJY – standalone C ZONE – ITM 8/9 on a fast track

4 – MIRACLE WORKER – YES horse with Value – better EP/FRACTIONS

Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Outside In Early Speed

6 – PERNICIOUS – Only YES horse – biggest dropper – on the lead – super low odds

2 – INNISFREE PRAYER – Top Rated 1ster – everyone else but the 1 and 6 is a No

1 – SELENA’S WISH – 2nd Rated Firster – same as the 2

8 – SLEEPYS TATER TODD – decently bet in debut – something went wrong – works getting ready were really good

Race 6: 1 Mile Turf – Closers – 3 Races – 1 w2w – All From 4+

10 – SHURE – going to be out front – most outside – AW to turf is the ?

7 – AZOI – big chance to go above PAR and TLRSP#+4

5 – MIDNITE IN FINLEY – is a neck away from winning 2 on Indy grass – otherwise 7/0-0-1

2 – PASSING JUDGMENT – 3SP# increases with solid works

$0.50 Trifecta: 5,7,10/2,3,5,7,10/2,3,5,7,10

Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Outside In Early Speed

3 – SLEEPY – SIM FAV – +5 AVG SIM SP# and 62% PAR +

2 – LATIGO – proper distance winner 7/14 – 4 of 14 at any other – 2nd up pop

5 – WIN ME OVER – just missed at this level last out – bullet work – same or better in 2nd up

4 – SCOTTY’S ON EDGE – better EP/FRACTIONS and drops in 3rd after a layoff

$1 Pick 4: 2,3,5/1,4,6,9/4,7/6,7

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,4,5

Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Closers – 3 Races – 1 w2w – All From 4+

4 – EAST JABIP – Strongest C ZONE by decent margin – undefeated in 2

1 – RESPLENDENCE – LS +6 and Top TOTAL PACE – better EP/FRACTIONS drops at a Price

9 – SOLOIST – ran well in a Grade II – came off the bench to lose to the 4 as the FAV

6 – THE TOWN TEMPTER – going to go forward and won both turf races

Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Outside In Early Speed

7 – WERK IT WENDY – outside speed – perfect bias fit – off since OCT

4 – IMAGINE THE MOON – fires in first ups – won last 2

2 – HOT MIDDLES – better EP/FRACTIONS – drops but regression risk off a peak race

5 – THREE COATS – won 4/9 at HINDY – Tyler G but maybe better suited for off track?

$3 Exacta Key Box: 7/2,3,4,5

Race 10: 5 Furlongs Turf – No Races

7 – AMANI’S MUSIC – 3rd race bounce back could make her an easy winner

6 – DIAMOND ROCK HILL – highly rated 1ster with a back bullet and solid turf breeding

1 – JR MISS BUTTERCUP – lots of speed and cutting back in distance – 1st on grass tr 0/20

3 – LA PUMA – really hard call over the 8 – but got to take the YES horse

$0.50 Trifecta: 1,6,7/1,3,6,7,8/1,3,6,7,8

Race 11: 330 Yards

9 – ABSOLUTE DOMINATION

7 – DASHIN QUICK CORONA

3 – SEEUDONTWANNABU

10 – VIKINA

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