Horseshoe Indianapolis has a little bit of everything today—and the weather could make an already interesting card even more unpredictable.

There are 10 races scheduled, including nine Thoroughbred races and a Quarter Horse maiden. For now, the Thoroughbred portion includes three turf races and six on the dirt, with a trio of maiden races adding even more uncertainty.

And then there’s the weather.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast around race time, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Shelby County until 5 PM EDT. That means we’ll have to be ready for scratches, surface changes and potentially dramatic changes to the way this card plays.

This is exactly the kind of day where Smart Sheets can be valuable—not simply for finding winners, but for quickly reassessing races when the circumstances change.

We’ll be looking at SIM Odds, SIM Speed, Total Pace, C-Zone, PAR, projected early leaders and other Smart Sheets signals to figure out who benefits—and who we can eliminate—if today’s races don’t unfold as originally expected.

Turf or dirt. Fast, wet or somewhere in between. Maidens and experienced runners.

Whatever Mother Nature throws at Horseshoe Indy, Terry and Rich will try to find the value.

Founders Club: https://horseracingtoday.net/smart-sheets-daily-horse-racing-analytics-pace-value/

🎯 Download the Smart Sheets
https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/IND_20260811_21bc91_HRT.pdf

👉 Smart Sheets Explanations
https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HRTSmartSheetsExplanations.pdf

☕ Tip Jar: support the show if our picks help you cash!
https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=7EY3A57YHD44J

Support us with HRT Gear:
https://horse-racing-today.myspreadshop.com/all

*All information is for entertainment purposes only

Race 1 – Female

Terry’s Picks

1. #4 Shesmyhuckleberry
Likes Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing in the money in 31% of the races, winning 15% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 33% of the starts.

2. #2 Crowned With Grace
Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Can handle the distance; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3. #7 Dreaming Why
Can improve while returning to Dirt; Drops in class today; Trainer wins 17% of the races when dropping down 2+ classes.

Longshot: #6 Peter’s Dream
Trainer who wins 17% when taking a horse down 2+ classes; Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.

Alternate:
#8 Redhotjustice

Rich’s Picks

Race 1: 1 Mile – Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Tough, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best

1. #4 SHESMYHUCKLEBERRY – best chance to hit par – tied for biggest dropper – pacesetter

2. #2 CROWNED WITH GRACE – TLRSP#+4 in mid June – blah work since – standout C ZONE

3. #6 PETER’S DREAM – most upside in the race and taking the same drop as the 4

4. #3 FAWN LIEBOWITZ – better EP/FRACTIONS – potential value

Race 2

Terry’s Picks

1. #5 Spotonjustice
Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2. #1 Crosstown Shootout
Finished in the money in 3 out of the last 4 races, winning 1 race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3. #2 Vsop
Won last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning jockey.

Longshot: #4 Me and Chili
Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Strong jockey stats.

Alternate:
#6 Zappinit

$1.00 Pick 4: 1,5/2,3,8/1,5/1,4,6,7 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Picks

Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Inside Out – 8+ Tough

1. #2 VSOP – maybe too much inside early speed – TLRSP#+8 – 3rd up

2. #4 ME AND CHILI -SIM FAV, SIM SP# FAV, Top TOTAL PACE and PAR+ with most upside

3. #1 CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT – better EP/FRACTIONS and drops with top jy/tr combo

4. #5 SPOTONJUSTICE – tough call over the 6 -just ranks higher in most Smart stats

$1 Pick 4: 2,4/1,2,4,7/5,9/2,4,6

Race 3 – Female

Terry’s Picks

1. #3 Really Fancy River
Finished 3rd vs similar in last race as the favorite; The trainer wins 40% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2. #2 Surprenant Cocca
Won last race; Can go the distance.

3. #8 Contrary Mary
Won last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot: #5 Wits and Wagers
Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning jockey.

Alternates:
#4 Tesouro de Pirata
#7 Lil Gin N Class

Rich’s Picks

Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Stalkers, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Small Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best

1. #7 LIL GIN N CLASS – top C ZONE – on the pace and +8 Top TOTAL PACE

2. #1 LOST CHORD – better EP on the rail and track dropping

3. #2 SURPRENANT COCCA – big effort in her last – but regressed after previous peak

4. #4 TESOURO DE PIRATA – best race value with best PAR+ – albeit not a strong one

$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,2,4,5

Race 4

Terry’s Picks

1. #1 Unresponsive
Ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in last race; Early speed running style helps chances; Has a high % winning jockey.

2. #5 Fogonero
Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3. #9 Basil
Finished 3rd vs similar in last race as the favorite in the last race; The trainer wins 40% with beaten favorites; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Longshot: #3 Speight Knight
Can improve while returning to Dirt; Has a high trainer who wins 25% when going from Turf to Dirt.

Alternates:
#4 Pro Fever
#2 Red So O Lo

Rich’s Picks

Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Stalkers, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Small Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best

1. #5 FOGONERO – pretty straight forward – 2 yes Horses dropping in class

2. #9 BASIL

3. #7 DADE COUNTY – goes to the lead with a length ES edge – best chance to go w2w

4. #3 SPEIGHT KNIGHT – 3rd race bounce back ability – best published work between races

$0.50 Pick 3: 5,9/4,6/3,8,9,12

Race 5

Terry’s Picks

1. #6 Rock City Kid
Beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar in last start; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

2. #1 Quaint
Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed; Has a high % winning trainer.

3. #7 Seen You Later
Won last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot: #4 Turbo Duck
Won last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Highest last race speed rating Strong jockey stats.

Alternate:
#11 Gunzo

Rich’s Picks

Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Doubtful – Stalkers, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Small Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best

1. #6 ROCK CITY KID – on the pace with most upside – 2nd up after more than a year off

2. #4 TURBO DUCK – Yes horse with the 6 – same upside – 6 SP# increases – 5 ways better

3. #2 MOMMAS WISH – standout C ZONE with top TOTAL PACE – and biggest drop

4. #7 SEEN YOU LATER – tough call over the 1 – but part of the pace and if the track goes wet – going to give speed the edge

$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/1,2,4,7

Race 6 – Female

Terry’s Picks

1. #9 Dreamy Justice
First time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 5 starters; Has a high % winning trainer.

2. #10 Bigtimejustice
Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3. #5 Obviously Precious
Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot: #3 La Peruana
First time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Strong trainer stats.

Alternates:
#8 Soxit Toem
#11 Pioneer Sky

$1.00 Pick 4: 3,5,9,10/4/2,3,8,9,10/8,11 – Cost $40.00

Rich’s Picks

Race 6: 5 Furlongs – Early Spees, 33% w2w – Rail and 4-7 Discount, 2/3 Best, 8+ Bonus

1. #12 MISS UNBRIDLED – all noes and not much to beat in here – all 1sters listed in order

2. #9 DREAMY JUSTICE

3. #8 SOXIT TOEM

4. #3 LA PERUANA

$1 Pick 4: 3,8,9,12/4/2,7,10/5,11,12,15

Race 7

Terry’s Picks

1. #4 Terre Haute
Finished in the money in 3 out of 5 career races, Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2. #7 Working for Glory
Closed to finish 3rs at a mile and now stretches out to 1-1/16; Strong trainer stats.

3. #1 Zun Reyder
Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Strong jockey stats.

Longshot: #5 Blazing
Drops in class today; Strong trainer stats.

Alternates:
#9 Ur Benja
#8 Pattern Approach

Bet: $20.00 Win: 4 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 4/7 – $10.00 Exacta: 4/1,5,7 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,4,7

Rich’s Picks

Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Doubtful – Stalkers, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Small Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best

1. #4 TERRE HAUTE – TLRSP#+4 – biggest dropper by a lot

2. #1 ZUN REYDER – top TOTAL PACE with chance to be better in 2nd up

3. #12 PLAYONWORDS – Lone E with 2 length ES edge and strong C ZONE – if any is to go w2w

4. #11 AL AMJAAD – tough call over the 9 – take the better odds, value, jockey and bigger drop

Best Bet of the Day

Horseshoe Indianapolis – Race 7 – #4 TERRE HAUTE

Terry and Rich agree on #4 Terre Haute as their top selection in Race 7, making this the strongest consensus play on today’s Horseshoe Indianapolis card.

Race 8

Terry’s Picks

1. #8 Concho’s Prayer
Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

2. #2 Unattainable Love
Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; Trainer who wins 42% in the horses 1st Time Claiming race.

3. #9 Dream Fast
Won last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot: #10 Barca Billy
Drops in class today; May improve while returning to Dirt; Trainer who wins 20% when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt.

Alternate:
#3 Whiskey Tryst

Rich’s Picks

Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, 28% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4- Discount, Inside Better than Out

1. #10 BARCA BILLY – Fairly heavy SIM FAV – biggest class drop – on the pace – Top TOTAL PACE

2. #2 UNATTAINABLE LOVE – lowest level – 1st route is a big ? -faded in sprints

3. #7 AIR CHARGER – YES horse with more upside and better AVG race than the rest

4. #1 ROSSO FUOCO – sizable class drop – value and strong enough PAR+ and trainer to consider

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,7,10

Race 9 – Female

Terry’s Picks

1. #8 How About Abby
Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer; Good 4F workout (Aug-04).

2. #11 Conquistadora
Drops in class today; Strong trainer stats.

3. #9 Beau Cup
Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot: #5 Cafe Embrace
Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Lasix added.

Alternate:
#3 Mohawk Moon

Rich’s Picks

Race 9: 1 Mile Turf – Doubtful – 1 Mile – Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Tough, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best

1. #15 EMPRESS SISI – biggest class drop and track drop for SIM FAV

2. #5 CAFE EMBRACE – track dropping from TB? Any improvement here is enough

3. #12 DIAMOND ROCK HILL – 3rd race bounce back that pushes her well past PAR

4. #11 CONQUISTADORA – on the pace as a big class and track dropper

Race 10

Terry’s Picks

1. #2 Jess Off the Wagon
Finished 3rd in last race.

2. #3 Run n for the Roses
Bumped in last race which affected his finish.

3. #4 Ajk Reylor
Good workouts.

Longshot: #10 Dashing for a Kiss
Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:
#1 Kats Bad Habit

Rich’s Picks

Race 10: 300 YARDS

1. #2 JESS OFF THE WAGON

2. #4 AJK REYLOR

3. #9 BIG DADDYS LOVER

4. #3 RUN N FOR THE ROSES

Best Bet of the Day

Horseshoe Indianapolis – Race 7 – #4 Terre Haute

Terry and Rich both have #4 Terre Haute as their top pick in Race 7.