Horseshoe Indianapolis Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Horseshoe Indianapolis Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Horseshoe Indianapolis – 8-13-2024
Race 1
2 – Mr Negativity – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has a trainer who wins 23% of the claiming races he has a horse competing in and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Spotonjustice – He drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 17% of the sprint races he has a horse competing in, his early speed running style helps chances as he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Mariachi Justice – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Lookin At Justice – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Forever Lasting
5 – Devils Gotta Go
Race 2
3 – All Jokes Aside – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he likes the turf finishing in the money in 87% of the races, winning 50% of the starts.
4 – Scotty’s On Edge – He ran 4th in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Win Me Over – He finished 3rd (on Dirt) in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Holiday House – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), he has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Aug-06.
Alternate:
7 – King Me
9 – Gettysburg Address
$.50 Pick 4: #3,4,6/4,6/3,6,9,10/1,2,3,4,7– Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
4 – Marmalade Skye – She won her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, her only start there and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Streaming Now – She finished 3rd in her last race so the shorter distance can help, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-06.
2 – Alberta Sun – She finished 3rd s tougher in her last race, drops in class today, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a bullet 4F workout on Aug-08.
Longshot:
5 – Simply Complicated – She has finished in the money in four of her last five starts, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Driana
1 – Lure’em In
Race 4
10 – Tin Top Road – He finished 3rd in his last race after being bumped at the start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Over the Ocean – He is a first-time starter, whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the turf races he has a horse competing in, and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Hot Wings – He has finished in the money in two of his last four starts, and he has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Snow King – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 4-2-1).
Race 5
3 – Bold Justice – He finished 3rd vs similar in only start., his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Star Quality – He ran 2nd vs similar in his only start, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and trainer who wins 17% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
7 – Breezy Justice – He is a first-time starter, whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Dr. Alex Is In – He is a first-time starter, whose Sire wins 33% of the time with 1st time starters and he has a bullet 4F workout on Aug-06.
Alternate:
2 – Unbridled Hero
Race 6
5 – Cielo Azul – He won his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-01.
3 – A Few too Many – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Spoke – He likes Horseshoe Indianapolis finishing in the money in 52% of the races, winning 14% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 55% of the races, winning 27% of the starts.
Longshot:
7 – Tay – He has finished in the money in four out of his last six starts, winning two of the races and he has high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Oro Azteca
$.50 Pick 4: 3,5/2,6,9,10/1,4/2,3,5,6,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 7 -Female
10 – Mulima – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, she has high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-6.
9 – Mishka – She ran 4th in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and her best Turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
2 – You Kuuipo – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, she can improve while trying grass as her Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and 1 Turf winner and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Saranac Lake – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when taking a horse from dirt to turf races.
Alternate:
11 – Camanoe
Race 8-Female
1 – Molly’s Aussie – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and blinkers are added today.
4 – Erin – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a bullet 4F workout on Aug-07.
3 – Littleransomsfire – She has a high % winning jockey and a good 3F workout on Aug-06.
Longshot:
7 – Bits of Candy – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter and she has a trainer who wins 25% of the sprint races he has a horse competing in.
Alternate:
9 – Pernicious
2 – Rich Girls Dreams
Race 9-Female
6 – Solrun – She won her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and she has a trainer who wins 33% of the races in 2nd grass she has a horse competing in.
2 – Thizzle – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Tizzy Justice – She finished 3rd in his last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – No Trust – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Classic Kitten
3 – Sheza Nut
Race 10
2 – Dj Smooch Alot – He has finished in the money in two races out of three starts this year and he has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Zoomin Dance – He finished 3rd in his last race and with a better start should be in the mix.
5 – Wrh Fast Man – He finished 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Nacho Renteria – He finished 3rd in his last race, just missing the win.
Alternate:
8 – Rock Hard Love
10 – Shez Jess Classy
Race 11
6 – Beach Dreamer – He has finished in the money in 40% of the races, winning 20% of the starts during his career and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Jess Gimme a Kiss – He finished 2nd in the last race that he competed in at 400 yds so the extra distance today will help.
8 – Braveaux – The additional distance should be a plus.
Longshot:
3 – Itsacoronayear – He finished poorly in his last race after plenty of trouble but won the race before and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Rogues Black Magic
7 – Sjf Goyo Leon
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing –8th Race
1 – Molly’s Aussie
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par, Inside Better than Outside
2 – MR NEGATIVITY – TLRSP# +8 and likely to bump up 2-6 points in 2nd up
3 – SPOTONJUSTICE – class dropper getting a 10 pound weight break here
7 – FOREVER LASTING – first off the claim, maybe new trainer found something with the bullet work on July 30th running 4f in 47 flat, the best by far for this horse
6 – LOOKIN AT JUSTICE – dropping in class in the 3rd up – resume says to expect a peak performance
Race 2: 5 Furlongs Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 7/16 w2w – PP: Rail Small Bonus, 2/3 Almost Fair, 4-7 Dinged, 8+ Best
3 – ALL JOKES ASIDE – won 3 of 4 HINDY turf races – likes the distance too, ITM 7/8
1 – BUTCH’S BEST – most likely pacesetter, has the top Q30 score and 1 length EP edge – best w2w candidate
4 – SCOTTY’S ON EDGE – better EP, especially the 2nd quarter last out, just missed in lone turf try
9 – GETTYSBURG ADDRESS – nothing in the PPs say pick me in recent races, but cannot not ignore the class he’s been facing – this is the easiest field he’s ever faced, now or never
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par, Inside Better than Outside
6 – STREAMING NOW – repeat of lone HINDY run gets it done again, Q30 with best chance to be on the lead – concern is plenty with similar speed and hot fractions
1 – LURE’EM IN – the only one in the race – besides the 6 – to hit PAR for this level in any of last 10 – bullet work prepping
4 – MARMALADE SKYE – won his last and first try at HINDY – does need to pick it up a little
3 – DRIANA – drops in class and the most consistent in the race, high floor, low ceiling type
Race 4: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 20% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Small Rail and 8+ Bonus
9 – OVER THE OCEAN – 3/3 first time starter, top breeding, nice back bullet work
2 – UNCLE CAESAR – typical 2nd race improvement is enough – been off since Jan, works are solid
7 – KENTUCKY GO GO – tr Doug O’Neill wanted this one on grass, first two were scratched off – today’s his chance
10 – TIN TOP ROAD – tough call over the 6, but more upside potential in 2nd up vs ML favorite
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Fair
4 – STAR QUALITY – goofy start in debut and still finished 2nd by a nose – better start today is all that’s needed to graduate
1 – DR. ALEX IS IN – 2.9/3 first time starter – bullet and go
3 – BOLD JUSTICE – missed by a neck in same race as the 4, was closing and extra ½ furlong, like today, might have been the difference
7 – BREEZY JUSTICE – the other 1st timer – solid breeding
2 – UNBRIDLED HERO – can’t overlook top jockey, top trainer on a horse that was out of it at the start, but bet below 3-1 in debut
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Fair
3 – A FEW TOO MANY – moving up the speed ladder, followed same pattern before, peak race coming today?
5 – CIELO AZUL – either of the last two would likely end in the winners’ circle here
2 – ORO AZTECA – sneaky Longshot, class drop from open 10K OC to state bred, better fractions in last despite going longer, going to be forward with top Q30
1 – SPOKE – tough call over the 7, but it sure looks like they are trying to unload the 7, big drop and in for a claim – I don’t think it’s a bluff, more of a fold
Race 7: 1 3/8 Miles Turf – Bias: 1 Race – Deep Closer from the Outside
10 – MULIMA – may have won last out if she didn’t have to check late
5 – STAY LOST – 3rd off the sidelines, really consistent against better fields, almost all grass races fit
11 – CAMANOE – a flyer pick – probably going to regret it, but Florent usually rides for Brad Cox, who sends out the 9 horse – one of the favorites, so why is he on a 10-1, second time starter for a trainer he’s ridden for 6 times?
8 – OGEMA BAY -want to take another shot with this one – first time making back to back starts, finally healthy horse, sticky situation late in last, closes hard and gets extra 3/8 of a mile today
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par, Inside Better than Outside
1 – MOLLY’S AUSSIE – really no excuses versus this group
7 – BITS OF CANDY – you have to take the highest rated 1st timers versus all the rest when none have shown the ability to win at this level
3 – LITTLERANSOMSFIRE – 2nd time starter that can improve enough to get up
10 – SECRET SAVIOR – we’ll fire at another flyer, well bet in her debut – didn’t do much, bit has a really nice workout since – maybe shows why the public backed her last out
Race 9: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 20% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Small Rail and 8+ Bonus
5 – NO TRUST – biggest in race edge with a 3 length LS edge and mid pack?
10 – CLASSIC KITTEN – Lone P – and that’s exactly where she should be positioned, better ATB in last – turf?
6 – SOLRUN – many of the others have never tried turf or haven’t run well on grass, this one race on grass for the first time and broke her maiden in the 8th try – maybe a horse for the turf course?
2 – THIZZLE – could be the favorite, but debut and lone 1st off the sidelines races were ugly
Race 10: 300 Yards
Next two races are straight SIM ODDS
2 – DJ SMOOCH ALOT
1 – CANDY STONE
5 – WRH FAST MAN
9 – STONE COLD CONCEPT
Race 11: 400 Yards
4 – ROGUES BLACK MAGIC
7 – SJF GOYO LEON
3 – ITSACORONAYEAR
6 – BEACH DREAMER
