Horseshoe Indianapolis Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Horseshoe Indianapolis Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Horseshoe Indianapolis – 7-30-2024
Race 1
3 – Master of the Nite – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Midnight Til Dawn – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Ballycotton Bay – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Pink Robe – He drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 21% clip and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Weekend Flame
6 – Wegotjacksback
Race 2-Female
5 – Taking Charge Desi – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Beautiful Temple – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her early speed running style helps her chances so the shorter distance should help.
3 – Bella Bolle – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Lanfrankophile – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a good 4F workout on Jul-18.
Alternate:
6 – Red Sun Dress
$.50 Pick 4: #4,5/1,2,8,9/1,3,4,5/4,5,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
2 – Pootoogook – She drops in class today, switches to a high% trainer, and she has a bullet 5F workout on Jul-19.
1 – Mary Loves Louie – She drops in class today; she may improve while trying grass as whose Dam has 6 winners from 8 starters and 2 Turf winners and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Crowned With Grace – She is a first–time starter, she has high % winning trainer and she has a good 4F workout on Jul-19.
Longshot:
8 – Talksalot – She drops in class today; he has a trainer who wins 17% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-20.
Alternate:
6 – Innisfree Lass
Race 4
4 – Mr Chaos – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 84% of the races, winning 47% of the races, the distance will not be a problem finishing in the money in 75% of the races, winning 25% of the races.
5 – Midnight West – He won his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, he has high % winning jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Tres Soles – He has high % winning trainer and jockey and the rail post is winning at a 21% clip.
Longshot:
3 – Run Away Rojo – He has finished in the money in eight out of his last ten races, winning four of the starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Woodcourt
Bet: $10.00 Win & $14.00 Place: # 4
Race 5 -Female
5 – Go Town – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Knightofcaravaggio – She is a first–time starter and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Golden Sunshine – She is a first–time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a good 4F workout on Jul-19.
Longshot:
8 – Poema – She is a first–time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Swan House
2 – No Pardon
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,4,5,6,8/2,3,8,9/10,11/4,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 6 -Female
8 – Lucky Linda W – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Ruby Girl – She drops in class today and can improve while returning to a sprint.
2 – Unafrade – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
10 – Queen’s Desire – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Mujer Bonita
4 – Wild Rumors
Race 7
11 – Charming Victory – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has high % winning trainer.
10 – Ora Certa – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has the highest last race speed rating.
9 – Porkyismyname – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Quality Dancer – He finished 3rd in his last race and switches to a high % jockey.
Alternate:
1 – My Mister Perfect
Race 8
4 – He Said Cash – He ran 4th in his last race beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs tougher (on Turf) in his last start and he has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
2 – Rocketing – He is a first–time starter and he has high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Jul-20.
5 – Michigan Left – He drops in class today; he can improve while returning to dirt and he has a high % jockey.
Longshot:
11 – Neon Leon – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming and is Lasix added.
Race 9 -Female
1 – My Temptation – She has finished in the money in three out of her last four races, winning one of the starts.
2 – Apollitical Ocean – She got a slow break in her last race and with a better break should finish well and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Er Crazy Secret – She has won one race out of two starts at Horseshoe Indianapolis and she has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Shirley Two Four – She has finished in the money in three out of her last four races and finishing 2nd in her last race.
Alternate:
9 – Mg Pilot Boi
10 – One Rock Candy V
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing –4th Race
4 – Mr Chaos
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Under Par, None 8+
7 – WEEKEND FLAME – is the only horse it makes any sense to back, track drop from CD, class drop and making just her 2nd start where typical improvement beats most of these most of the time
3 – MASTER OF THE NITE – lowest level of her career, rerun just 2 back at a step above this
2 – BALLYCOTTON BAY – could be the pacesetter and showed improved LS in her last
8 – MIDNIGHT TIL DAWN – 2 best races were on dirt, last was terrible on grass, 3rd up
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Penaly, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
6 – RED SUN DRESS – longest shot on the board in a 5 horse race, lowest level of career by a long way – has show some early juice and the top trainer/jockey combo
3 – BELLA BOLLE – ran faster by about a second last – much better LS
4 – BEAUTIFUL TEMPLE – probable pacesetter, just needs to hold on
5 – TAKING CHARGE DESI – likely favorite, 3rd up off a peak number, regressed in same patter last 3 race cycle
Race 3: 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 11 Races, Closers, 2 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Big Bonus, 4+ Discount but Inside better than Outside
2 – POOTOOGOOK – probably going to be a heavy favorite on the 120 MSW drop, bullet work since and 2nd race improvement opportunity
3 – J’S NAUGHTY ANGEL – 2.6/3 points – not as high as the 9, but better post and the works are better
9 – CROWNED WITH GRACE – 3 point 1st timer without a lot to beat in here
8 – TALKSALOT – not much to differentiate this and the 1 – we’ll take the better odds in what might be a rebound race
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Under Par, None 8+
4 – MR CHAOS – out front, catch me if you can – maybe not with top C-Zone, will like it out there
5 – MIDNIGHT WEST – has some off the charts late pace at times – most consistent performer
1 – TRES SOLES – just needs to run back two races to win – same pattern, first up on grass, 2nd up on dirt – improved both times in the dirt races
2 – WOODCOURT – faced the toughest competition for sure running in a couple of KD qualifiers
Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 11 Races, Closers, 2 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Big Bonus, 4+ Discount but Inside better than Outside
6 – GOLDEN SUNSHINE – highest rated first time starter with top breeding and works
4 – KNIGHTOFCARAVAGGIO – July 13 and 6th works indicate solid talent for Brad Cox trainee
5 – GO TOWN – decently bet in both races – held speed longer in last – maybe third try is the answer
1 – SWAN HOUSE – nice consistent works and breeding – hard call over the 2
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 32% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Small Discount, a little better Inside than Out
4 – WILD RUMORS – class dropper, forgetting about the last and 2nd career race, hopped at the start, bumped… looking for bounce back race and improvement from debut
2 – UNAFRADE – was a lot better from the middle out in last, see that carry over plenty of times to the next race
3 – MUJER BONITA – first timer that really doesn’t have much to beat if she has any talent
8 – LUCKY LINDA W – tough call over the 9, but beat her both times
Race 7: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed, 23% w2w – PP: Fair all the way around
4 – MR CORN – another first timer that doesn’t have much to beat
10 – ORA CERTA – should probably be the top pick – he’s faced a lot of horses that came back to win next out
1 – MY MISTER PERFECT – much better EP in last – another step forward might be enough
7 – THISCATSABULLET – might have the most punch at the end of the race
Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Penaly, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
2 – ROCKETING – record on repeat – 1st timer without a lot to beat – last two workouts might be better than any race run by horse in the field
11 – NEON LEON – problems in his last – only PURE MSW dropper, 1st lasix
4 – HE SAID CASH – raced at this level 2 back and missed by a neck
7 – MAMA’S BOY – a shot to be the pacesetter at a decent price and has enough LS to close it out
Race 9: 250 Yards – Be Fast
2 – APOLLITICAL OCEAN
1 – MY TEMPTATION
7 – IMMEDIATE
3 – BEACH BAY
