Horse Racing Picks, News and Opinions
Tom and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
This week’s stop, Australia
Caulfield Racecourse including: (FREE Caulfield Past Performances)
Race 2 – Autumn Stakes Group 2
Race 6 – Ts Carlyon Cup Group 3
Race 7 – Rubiton Stakes Group 2
Race 8 – C. F. Orr Stakes Group 1
Race 9 – Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes Group 3
Caulfield Racetrack Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s Interntional Tips
R2 – Autumn Stakes Group 2
8 – Burning Power
5 starts 3 wins
Won at the distance
Been away for 78 days but has running 2 trial races at 1000m
Won vs open company last out sitting last and move up at the 800m mark
Won the race before at the Bm64 level
Won first up, maiden race running in the same style as her other winning efforts
Sitting midpack will be her best chance to close and win here
This is a step up to group company and she faces males again
1 – Coastwatch
11 starts 2 wins 4 placings
Coming into this race, he has 2 barrier trials that were average runs to come into this race.
The comment “keen” in last race was noted, settling early is key
He’s won twice at this distance from 4 races
Raced longer last out 1600m but appears to want shorter races
Should be close to the leaders in this race
I don’t think he will win but getting a placing here in more likely
3 – Sharp Response
6 starts 2 wins 3 placing
Place at this distance
Been running against lesser horses last 3 times in Bm70 races with not wins
Never far behind in any races but when too near the leaders, he has backed up
If he runs his race, he will sit midpack and move off the turn
This is a step up, but his form has been good enough for a placing. Win?
R6 – Ts Carlyon Cup Group 3
3 – Yonkers
33 starts 9 wins 11 placings
At the distance, he has 6 starts 2 wins 3 placings
At this track, he has 4 starts 3 wins
A good 2nd last out in November at 25-1, ran a fast final at :33.92 and this was at the distance of 2000m
He’s a group 2 winner at 1500m
He will sit midpack and there is on speedster in this race, Open Minded
I think he has a great chance here even with the layoff because all but 1 horse are coming off layoffs and he’s won twice off layoffs before
8 – Normandy Bridge
6 starts 2 wins 1 placing
At the distance 4 starts 2 wins 1 placing
Imported to Australia after running in France
Last 2 races he was over his head against group 1 horses and the winner was St Mark’s Basilic both times
Won group 3 at Saint Cloud in 2020
Should sit way back and make one run
He may need a start here before winning but he’s faced some on the best in France, so a placing is possible
1 – Callsign Mav
20 starts 7 wins 8 placings
5 tries at the distance with 1 win 2 placings
Does well fresh (FU) with 4 starts 3 wins 1 placing
Group 1 winner more than once
Ran a barrier trial in prep for this race, ok 3rd and good time of 1:00.60
Favorite in this race and should sit behind the pace marker and take the led at the top of the stretch.
Never raced this track
The one to beat unless he gets used early and I am not sure this is his best distance
R7 – Rubiton Stakes Group 2
3 – Mileva
13 starts 6 wins 3 placings
1 for 1 at this track and has 6 starts 3 wins 2 placings at this distance
Ran a longer race last out at group 3 level, running 4th, had the lead in the stretch but good finishing last quarter of :33.70, so they were flying, moved too early?
A listed winner twice in recent history so tries again in group company
If she runs her race, she will sit in front of the midpack horses and move up
2 – Artorius
9 starts 2 wins 5 placings
He’s won once on this track and 2 placings out of 3 tries
Only 1 run at this distance and placed
Last raced in October in group 1 race running a respectable 3rd at 1200m and was 13 entering the stretch.
As you can guess, he’s a 1 run horse and should be last for most of the race
Drops down in class and distance, Oxley Road should be the leader, so will he have enough pace up from to run down the field
1 – Oxley Road
7 starts 3 wins 2 placings
3 starts at the distance no wins but placed twice
At this track, 2 wins 1 place from 3 starts
Winner at 1000m group 2 race in October before an average run his last race before the layoff
After layoff, he has 2 starts 1 win 1 placing
He will be the one out front in this race
He can win but more likely vs this group, he will have enough left the beat the balance of the field
R8 – C. F. Orr Stakes Group 1
9 – Sierra Sue
20 starts 8 wins 1 placing
Great record at this distance, 7 starts 5 wins
Group 1 winner at this distance at this track with 4 starts and 2 wins
Last 2 races in group 1 races were awful, so the layoff made sense
After layoff, she has 2 wins from 4 starts
She will sit behind the midpack and move up as the frontrunners slow down
If she ready, she will win
3 – Behemoth
26 starts 10 wins 6 placings
He’s 4 for 6 at this distance and 3 for 6 at Caulfield
After layoff, he has 10 starts 5 wins 3 placings
Big favorite last out in listed race and was beat by 1/2L
He lost to Sierra Sue in September running 6th beaten by 2L
He will be with the frontrunners and move forward at top of the stretch
He’s multiple group winner but is facing a good field here
1 – I’m Thunderstruck
9 starts 6 wins 2 placings
Only 1 win at the distance but placed twice from 4 tries
After a layoff, he is 2 for 2
Won he’s last 2 races in open and group 1 company
Facing my top choice, he lost to Sierra Sue in September finished 3rd
He’s tough here and won off layoffs but he faces a good field again
R9 – Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes Stakes Group 3
1 – Probabeel
26 starts 12 wins 8 placings
7 starts at the distance, 4 wins 1 placing
Loves Caulfield, 5 starts 4 wins only lost here was in a group 1 race facing the same horses in the group 1 race run before this race
Her barrier trial was a winning effort going 1050m in 1:01.47, useful
She’s won group 1 race and other group races
She appears to be ready for a winning effort vs this bunch
She will be back of the field and be flying at the end
Favorite
3 – Flying Mascot
10 starts 4 wins 3 placings
Never ran this distance before and has 1 start at Caulfield and placed
Off layoffs, 3 runs 2 wins 1 placing
A group 3 winner
Should be our pace setter and will need to set a slow pace to hold off my top choice, she should have company up front
Rick’s Ranks
Race 2 – Autumn Stakes
5 – Lucky Decision
7 – Decent Raine
6 – Mahrez
8 – Burning Power
Race 6 – Ts Carlyon Cup
6 – Open Minded
1 – Callsign Mav
2 – Spanish Mission
3 – Yonkers
Race 7 – Rubiton Stakes
8 – Marine One
6 – Extreme Flight
2 – Artorius
3 – Mileva –SCRATCHED
Race 8 – C. F. Orr Stakes
11 – Lighthouse
1 – I’m Thunderstruck
7 – Sinawann
8 – Tofane
Race 9 – Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes
3 – Flying Mascot
1 – Probabeel
6 – Kenyan Wonder
