Caulfield Analysis (Free Caulfield Past Performances)
Track Conditions: Good 4 – Track with some give in it
A packed late night and early morning card at Caulfield as Tom and Rich make their picks for six stakes races. It should be an excellent night of horse racing.
Race 5: The Big Screen Company T.S. Carlyon Cup
Race 6: Sportsbet Blue Diamond Prelude
Race 7: Sportsbet Blue Diamond Prelude
Race 8: McCafé Rubiton Stakes
Race 9: Sportsbet C.F. Orr Stakes
Race 10: Senet Peter Le Grand Stakes
Caulfield Horse Racing Tips
22-1 Tom’s Tips
Race 5
4 – Yonce – Barrier 5
The last race was a better effort in a listed race at Caulfield, behind 1L at 1400m at Caulfield. But third up, she’s 1 for one and has the best field record at this distance, three starts, two wins. She settled 5th at the start and moved up to third. I think there is enough to suggest improvement today.
2 – Loft – Barrier 2
This horse has had an interesting journey. His last race was a Chester in GB, and he ran second in a field of four. Before that, he ran at Belmont (USA), winning a grade 2 race at 3219m. And before that race, he ran in Germany. His barrier trial race was good at 1200m, but I wonder why they are starting him out at this distance. They must see something in the morning to suggest this distance suits him.
6 – Foxy Cleopatra – Barrier 1
Only a little effort last out at 2000m, but better effort in other races at 1400m and 1600m. Good runs at this distance of 2 starts, one win and one second. She hasn’t won in over a year, but there is enough to suggest that she will run well here.
Race 6
4 – Stay Focused – Barrier 3
One race, one win at 1100m at Geelong. It was an open race but a good purse. The 600m time was good. He sat third most of the race before moving forward and winning. He was the favorite in his last race, and maybe again.
6 – Innervisions – Barrier 5
He ran third in his debut against some of this horse and was a speedy effort, running on the front end most of the race and caught at the end. Interestingly, this race has added blinkers to get more speed or focus. He won both of his barrier trials and he may have needed the first start plus the equipment change.
1 – High Octane – Barrier 1
He won at Caulfield in his first start by less than a length. He sat sixth most of the race and moved strongly for the win. Good to see in a 2yo. He won both his barrier trials and improved off those workouts. He may blow by this field and win for fun.
Race 7
5 – Flattered – Barrier 3
Ran second by 2.3L in only one start at Caulfield. She sat ninth for most of the race and then got interested late. She has since had a barrier trial and ran fourth quickly. The second start looks like she’s well placed with a good draw.
1 – Bold Bastille – Barrier 8
Set the pace last time at Moonee Valley and won going wire to wire by over three lengths in a big money race. The trainer is making an equipment change, but a strong debut suggests more to come.
13 – Juviance – Barrier 2
Ran second first out at Pakenham, losing by less than a length. She sat sixth most of the race and moved well late. She had the inside draw that day and got that today. It is a big step up from the maiden race and a big, long, but these are 2yo’s. Adding winkers today.
Race 8
4 – Asfoora – Barrier 6
After running good races in her first three starts of the season, she ran a stinker last time, finishing ninth by over seven lengths in a Group 1 at Flemington. She had a good position early and then flattened out. This race was at 1200m, and today, she dropped the distance back to where she had been running well. Time away with a first-up record of four starts, three wins, and one placing. Plus, she’s strong at this distance of seven starts, five wins, and one placing. Toss last. She should be the favorite.
5 – Zapateo – Barrier 7
This is her first start of the season after winning a barrier trial at 800m in a good time. She has not won a Group 1 race but has placed twice and has won at the Group 2 & 3 levels. Her first-up record is five starts, two wins, and two placings, and at this distance, she has eight starts, three wins, and 2 placings. It’s an excellent place to start the season.
13 – Barbie’s Fox – Barrier 10
It was an awful race last time out in a Group 1 race running last but had a terrible barrier start position of 15. This is a really interesting move to drop her to a distance she has never run because the shortest distance has been 1200m for most of her recent career. With age, maybe she’s a sprinter? Big price.
Race 9
9 – Vieght – Barrier 2
They took the blinkers off him last time, and he won a Group 2 at 1200m at Moonee Valley. He has an eight-race career with four wins and one second. He gets a weight allowance, being the only 3yo in the race. There is some support in the market at 5-1 I think he will continue his winning ways.
4 – Bustler – Barrier 6
He ran the second barrier trial last out, and this will be his first start after 56 days away from racing. He is an all-or-nothing horse at this distance, with a record of six starts and three wins. After running many races at Ascot, he ships here for a chance to win against a good group. His group 1 win was at a long distance of 1600m, so let’s see what he can do.
1 – Mr. Brightside – Barrier 4
This is the horse to beat, but in his last three races, he ran second three times. Form isn’t the question, he has been good at this distance, running nine times with a record of four wins and three placings. He likes this course with four starts and three wins. My question is he finally done with running second?
Race 10
4 – Brazen Style – Barrier 5
She hasn’t run in 84 days and used a barrier trial to prep for this race (he ran 4th) in an average time. She won her last two races, first a maiden race and then shipped to Caulfield to win a Group 3 race at 1200m at odds of 50-1. She set the pace in that race. I think that’s try again but this time at a shorter distance. You should get good odds again and left see if the time away will help return her with a win.
8 – Estriella – Barrier 13
Her last race could have been more forgettable, running 6th, and ran seventh most of the race. Not a stellar effort after her earlier runs of a maiden win and then running second in a Group 2 and second in an open race. She’s won and placed at this in three tries, and I think she will run a better effort today from an outside barrier position.
7 – Blanc De Blanc – Barrier 2
This horse is good at running second and has done that in four of her six starts. She did it at this distance, too. She is coming into the race off a 10-month break and won her maiden first-up. She is using two barrier trials for prep to this race, winning one and running third in the other. Times were ok and she appears to have some fitness. Let’s see if that’s enough to run in the money here.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 5: The Big Screen Company T.S. Carlyon Cup – 10:30 pm Eastern
4 – Yonce – good – winner 5/6, distance 2/3 and 1 for 1 at third up
2 – Loft – difference is the good to firm record – 14 pounds less this race than last
1 – Young Werther – I think this is the classiest horse – but 1st up 6/1-0-0
5 – Unusual Culture – tough call over the 6, but all his best on a good track and all the 6’s on a wet track
Race 6: Sportsbet Blue Diamond Prelude – 11:05 pm Eastern
1 – High Octane – well bet in his winning debut, ran away from the pack, more distance today helps
3 – Bodyguard – also a well bet, debut winner that made a strong move late, extra distance and heard a few Whitney Houston songs today for the first time in a while
10 – Untapped – don’t know what this comment means for a 1st timer, “gapped rivals in a recent jumpout win” but it sounds good, and I like it.
5 – Holmes A Court – ran evenly for a nice 2nd versus top pick in his debut, expecting 2ns race improvement
Race 7: Sportsbet Blue Diamond Prelude – 11:40 pm Eastern
6 – Kuroyanagi – won debut at a low price, short field, comment was it was an easy win
1 – Bold Bastille – sold race time in debut, likely to be a little faster in career start two
7 – In Her Eyes – heard Whitney in the prior start, heard Peter Gabriel too – I know it’s your and not her eyes, but the horse just missed in her debut at 6f, fit and faster today on the cutback in distance
10 – Dancer For Money – won her debut close to the front, decent run time, what the heck at 51-1
Race 8: McCafé Rubiton Stakes -12:15 am Eastern
9 – Rey Magnerio – kind of hard to argue with good 7/5-1-1, distance 6/4-0-1 -track 1/1 at 9-1
4 – Asfoora – going to be your big favorite, track 5/4-0-0, 1st up only question
2 – Kallos – Gpdolphin horse that started his career with 3 wins, steps down from Group 1
14 – Hypothetical – has run well in first up 4/1-2-0, ITM 10/12 on a good track, 7/9 at the distance and 2/1-1-0 at the Caulfield – second by a nose – been in a lot of key races where horses came back to win
Race 9: Sportsbet C.F. Orr Stakes – 12:55 am Eastern
1 – Mr Brightside – is the class here, 3 for 3 at the distance at Caulfield – 1st up record is spotty
6 – Ayrton – crushes Caulfield, 7/6-0-0 – 5 at the distance, miss was a $1m race with a bad start
2 – Pericles – 1st Up 3/2-0-0, another that loves the distance 5/3-0-1 – hasn’t done it at G1 – yet
4 – Bustler – my all or nothing play – ran for $1.5 million in last 3 races, 1 win and competitive 4ths – by purse, this is a step down
Race 10: Senet Peter Le Grand Stakes – 1:35 am Eastern
5 – Hip Hip Hurrah – unbeaten in two, both on good, 1 at the distance you don’t know how good a horse is until it loses
10 – So Glamorous – always well bet, stepping up in class, but should be mid pack with a lot of late run
12 – Amoursirra – 7/5 debut winner with ease
7 – Blanc De Blanc – been competing against better company, got a feeling one of these younger, less experienced types might be something special
