We really like this Randwick card filled with Australian Group races. With 2-year-olds and Group 1 caliber horses competing in deep, competitive fields… Tom and Rich have a good mix of longshots and favorites to pick from, expecting some BIG prices to hit the board tonight.
Randwick Racecourse Tips (Free Randwick Past Performances)
Track Conditions: Good 4 – but rain is in the forecast
Race 4: CATANACH’S JEWELLERS SKYLINE STAKES
Race 6: TAB SWEET EMBRACE STAKES
Race 7: TAB VERRY ELLEEGANT STAKES
Race 8: DRINKWISE SURROUND STAKES
Race 9: PROVEN THOROUGHBREDS GUY WALTER STAKES
Race 10: LIVERPOOL CITY CUP
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track of the Day: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Royal Randwick Horse racing Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 4
8 – Duvana – Barrier 3
Storm Boy’s first race was a captivating journey filled with challenges and learning opportunities. Despite encountering issues late in the race and starting from the back of the field, he showed resilience and determination. The most intriguing aspect was his performance at the 200m mark, where he was held up. The comment that resonated with me was’ 100m he was not thoroughly tested’, hinting at his untapped potential.
1 – Storm Boy – Barrier 1
Storm Boy, with his impeccable record of three wins in three races, is set to be the clear favorite. He has shown a surplus of energy in each race, suggesting that he has yet to be tested. Despite encountering difficulties in his first two races, he emerged victorious. His recent triumph in a barrier trial further bolsters his credentials. The only potential hurdle is his inside draw, but he has already proven his ability to overcome this in his debut race from Barrier 1.
4 – Parkour – Barrier 5
Won at Randwick last time out from the outside barrier after settling toward the back of the field. He showed great potential in that race and had something left at the end. He used a barrier trial to prepare for this race and ran fifth. His experience of this track and his winning at 1200m enhance his chances of winning this race.
Race 6
2 – Castanya – Barrier 13
Since his horse has sat at the back of the field in both her and come on to win her last race and place second in her first race, she has a good chance here from the outside barrier.
11 – Fly Fly – Barrier 11
She ran fourth in her only race with some trouble, sat fourth in the early parts, moved up to second on the inside, and didn’t finish. She won both her barrier trials and improved from the first to the second in a faster time. She will be forwardly placed early in the race. The better the trip, the better the results. Another pick from an outside barrier, but maybe this will help because, in the first race, she had barrier one.
4 – Chateau Miraval – Barrier 7
She had a narrow win in her maiden race. running on the front end. She settled well with a one-length advantage, then challenged and fought on strongly to the end. She won two barrier trials and ran third in the other at this track. She’s on the lead again, and let’s see if she can do it again.
Race 7
4 – Buckaroo – Barrier 1
Running fifth last start coming from his settling position in seventh was a tactical run because when the stewards questioned the jockey, he was following Militarize and waited for him to accelerate, but he didn’t and he waited longer than he wanted then shifted, out at the with 200m left in the race for clear running and finished well. He has won two of his four efforts second up, so I see good things happening here with more distance.
1 – Think It Over – Barrer 3
He ran a good third last time out, but not enough to win. Add some more distance, a good record at this distance in place, and doing this six times (he has two wins), and he should improve off that effort. He’s a better horse first up than second up but has placed four times from seven starts with adding distance. He’s good enough here to get a placing.
6 – Navajo Peak – Barrier 4
He ran fourth in his last start off a layoff and settled in the back of the field before making up ground, but he didn’t finish. Did he need a race? His second-up record is good, with three starts, two wins, and one placing, and this suggests we could see a big effort here. I think so.
Race 8
4 – Learning To Fly – Barrier 6
She ran second last out at 1200m and came with one big run to miss. She adds distance today for the first time and has a career record of three wins and one placing from five starts. Based on her last performance, adding distance will land this horse in the winner’s circle.
1 – Tropical Squall – Barrier 2
Her last race appears to have been too far for her, and now she drops in distance from 2500m to 1400m and has a record of two starts, one win, and one placing. She is two for two, first up, and her barrier trial suggests fitness for this race. Distance suits and starting position helps, too.
10 – Roll On High – Barrier 11
She’s won her last two races at today’s distance. These races were run differently. She was more forwardly placed in the maiden race, and in the last race, she came from last place early to win. Today, she steps up in class to see if she’s good enough and maybe a specialist at this distance. She has the disadvantage of an outside barrier and first time on softer going, so I am taking her the odds of around 12-1.
Race 9
1 – Duais – Barrier 6
This race may be just the place to win, but it won’t be easy. She’s never won at this distance; she’s won once from nine starts at this track, but she is a proven winner with three Group 1 wins and 2 Group 3 wins. Coming off a layoff and running at a shorter distance against a very average field, I am going to take a chance that this time, the best of her will show up and win.
7 – Miss Faberge – Barrier 1
She came with a run last to finish fourth at the 1200m, but in the race before, she won at 1400m in a BM72 race, and she ran well at the lower class levels. She’s never finished on the board in any of her group races, but I think she will run a strong effort with this field and the improved effort at the Group 3 level.
2 – Hinged – Barrier 5
She comes into this off a very average barrier trial, and some dismal races with some trouble in both races for the 80-plus days off may help improve her chances. She is better second up than first up but likes this distance of six starts, three wins, and one placing. She will improve here by getting the top jockey (winning at a 30% clip in his last 50 races) and top trainer.
Race 10
3 – Golden Mile – Barrier 6
Nothing in his last race, terrible effort even being forwardly placed early in the race. Check after to race, the vets found that the horse was coughing. He’s done well in group races with fifteen starts four wins and three placings. His won once at this track and has three starts one win and one placing at this distance. He should be forwardly placed and I hope for a winning effort today. Change of equipment today with winkers off but retaining the blinkers.
2 – Coal Crusher – Barrier 11
Rans second after a three-month layoff at this track going 1200m. He was forwardly placed and challenged the winner but was denied by about half a length. Here’s a horse who likes this distance, with a record of six starts and four wins. He has won at his courses and distance before.
The only reason I can’t put him on top is the starting position because the last winner of this race coming out of post eleven to win was in 2011.
8 – Phearson – Barrier 5
He hasn’t raced since December and that effort was not much running eleventh and the best way to look at the race is he could keep going. Maybe it was too short of a turnaround because there were only seven days between his winning effort at Rosehill to his last race before layoff. He’s won twice at this distance and has an overall record of five starts, two wins and three placings. His two barrier trials were good with a win and a second in good times. Big effort here from this horse.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 4: CATANACH’S JEWELLERS SKYLINE STAKES – 10:15 pm EST
7 – President – his debut race was by far the fastest time for any in here, was closing, extra 1/2f helps
3 – Prost – numbers say he is faster than the 1 the likely favorites
6 – Indecisive – debut was fast too, ran evenly, 2nd race improvement is what I am looking for
1 – Storm Boy – undefeated in 3 races, going to be < 1/1, On a 2 year old – no way
Race 6: TAB SWEET EMBRACE STAKES – 11:25 pm EST
4 – Chateau Miraval – winning time in debut was the fastest by about ½ second
7 – Wave Breaker – debuted in a Group 3 – connections think they have something special here, debut time and even effort says they are probably right
1 – Manaal – experienced horse that is going to take money, but many of the others could offer a lot more upside
10 – Asteride – time in debut fits here
Race 7: TAB VERRY ELLEEGANT STAKES – 12:00 am EST
1 – Think It Over – going to try to beat the favorite again with 2nd up improvement for a horse that’s 7/2-1-2 at the track and distance
9 – Fangirl – going to be the betting favorite but, IMO, not worthy of < even money with his 2nd up record
2 – Cascadian – interesting comment from his last race – “They don’t run much better lasts than he did resuming. Only found dead ends in the straight but with clear air, he would have been in the placings. Can improve sharply.” Ok, I’ll bite
8 – Athabascan – completely a Tom horse, probably no chance to win, steadily improved in 4 yo campaign, been off since Nov 4. Any improvement whatsoever, and his numbers fit at close to 100:1
Race 8: DRINKWISE SURROUND STAKES – 12:35 am EST
4 – Learning To Fly – only question is the distance, but she closes, so more is better, right?
1 – Tropical Squall – 1st up and her first up record is 2 wins in 2 starts
8 – Makarena – been ITM 100% in four race +
2 – Zardozi – so tempted to put 1st, won 5/9 races, just looks like she prefers wet track, there is rain in the forecast – if the track is downgraded by race time to soft or worse, going to put on top – if it say’s good, going to consider using the #3 Kimochi – maybe.
Race 9: PROVEN THOROUGHBREDS GUY WALTER STAKES – 1:15 am EST
1 – Duais – most back class by a wide margin, concern is first up record, if she is ready – 9/2 odds are a steal
2 – Hinged – the tweener distance is proper for her, 6/3-1-0, all others 24/3-4-3
4 – Barbie’s Fox – something clearly went wrong in last race of Nov 23. Class before that was strong, 1st up looks bad on paper, but dig just a little deeper, only lost by 6 lengths, in a G2 at 5 ½ F, since two horses came back to win and she showed some return to form – more distance is key
6 – Ausbred Flirt – best track/distance record in the bunch – AoN F1st up 5/2-0-0
Race 10: LIVERPOOL CITY CUP – 1:55 am EST
5 – Democracy Manifest – if he is going to win, it will be today, 1st up 6/4-1-0 – half of his wins, at the distance 3/1-1-1 and loves good footing
2 – Coal Crusher – flat out loves the distance 5/4-0-0 – held the lead into the stretch in the lone miss -4th – in a race where 4/8 came back to win
1 – Cepheus – ITM 14/20 on good, off the board in 6 on anything else on grass
3 – Golden Mile – has the most upside in the race, sometimes pops big races, one of those and he wins running away – otherwise he fights, but it would be a dogfight
