International Horse Racing Today – Caulfield, Australia – Saturday, September 17, 2022

Horse Racing Picks and Analysis

Tom and Rich go to the Land Down under where winter gives way to spring. Can’t you hear, can’t you hear the horses thunder?

Caulfield Horse Racing Picks – (free Caulfield Past Performances)

Race 4: NEDS CAULFIELD GUINEAS PRELUDE

Race 5: HERE FOR THE HORSES THOUSAND GUINEAS PRELUDE

Race 6: CATANACH’S JEWELLERS MRC FOUNDATION CUP

Race 7: NEDS SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES

Race 8: NEDS HOW NOW STAKES

Picks with the Professor’s Play of the Day

Caulfield Horse Racing Tips and Commentary

22 to 1 Tom’s Tips

Race 4 NEDS CAULFIELD GUINEAS PRELUDE 1400m 3CG G3

2 – Aft Cabin

2^nd at Caulfield in group 3 last out without the benefit of a clean run, traffic

Travelled 5^th then 6^th before picking it up for the wire

He’s raced 3 times and never out of the money

Off that last effort, should be tough here

5 – Lethal Thoughts

Ran 5^th at Rosehill last out in group 3 race at 1300m

Ran toward the rear and then made-up ground but too wide to get to the early pace setters

First race in over 2 months

2 barrier trials were good time, winning one and running 7^th in the other

He placed in group 3 race and ran ok 6^th in group 1 at Eagle Farms

He has a win from 2 starts on the soft going

This spots suits for 2^nd off layoff

8 – Japanese Emperor

1 race 1 win at 1200m at 40-1

Moves from the maiden race to see what they have against better horses

Raced at the rear, moved up at 400m and the description of “shouldered way out at 250m and produced a monster run”. Sounds impressive to me

The going was heavy so the soft shouldn’t be an issue

Will be a price again

 

Race 5 HERE FOR THE HORSES THOUSAND GUINEAS PRELUDE 1400m 3F G2

2 – Revolutionary Miss

Last run, closed good and just missing a placing running 5^th

First race of the season was a disaster, ran last in a group 2 race

The last race was a listed race, so she’s moving up in class

She only has one win from 7 starts with 3 placings but last race was a better effort

I will take a shot, but the soft going is a concern

7 – Mumbai Jewel

First 2 starts have not been great, 7^th last out, 9^th in group 2 first start of the season

As my top choice, only 1 win but that was on the soft going

She’s placed in group 3 race

What’s interesting for me is the barrier trials were good, but the effort was not shown in the last 2 starts

Like my top choice, this horse was in the same race and just missed placing, so that may end up being a key race

13 – Bonheur

As a 2yo, ran third in one race and then nothing in the other 2 races

Need to mature?

Ran a barrier trial before it next start and it was fast time but she ran 7^th

Then the breakthrough, won maiden with good position early, move to 2^nd on the turn and powered way at the end but did appear to be lazy

Short price in that race

Moved up from that race but during those other 2 races as a 2yo, they were group 2 races

 

Race 6 CATANACH’S JEWELLERS MRC FOUNDATION CUP 2000m 3UQlty G3

14 – Uncle Bryn

Last race ran 2^nd at Moonee Valley, stalked, moved on the turn and finished strongly but not a winning effort

First start of season at Caulfield ran 6^th, with sitting in the back of the field, he had too much to do to have any chance of winning but came on

I think he’s built on the 2 runs at 1400m to 1600m to today’s distance

Imported from England, he’s getting on track now and this distance will be an interesting test

13 – Smokin’ Romans

1 start this season running 2^nd in a small field race going 2040m at Moonee Valley

He just missed getting the win

Off that effort and that 2^nd off a layoff he has won, top effort today

He prefers the good to soft going so this should suit

My only concern is does he want more distance?

6 – Chapada

Last start was a first run since Oct 2021 and it was a first start

Ran 8^th, started in back of the field, better move up a bit but well, it’s a first start

The comment line was interesting “Didn’t lie down although never a winning hope”

He’s run this distance before at Caulfield, no wins but placed 2 times from 3 starts

In his career, he’s placed in group 1’s, won 2 group 2’s and placed in group 3’s

Only 3 wins in his 35-race career

 

Race 7 NEDS SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES 1400m 3U OPEN G1

18 – I Wish I Win

Hadn’t race since March 2021 and came out strong to win first start of the season at 1400m

Back in the rear of the field siting 7^th then 8^th, moved up and charged for home to win by open lengths, impressive off the layoff.

He’s won 3 times from 4 layoffs, 2^nd up he’s placed 3 times from 3 starts

Why pick on top? This was a great effort

Very consistence horse, 10 starts 3 wins 6 placings

Step up here but should make a good run again

16 – Chaillot

This is his first race of the season after a 6^th in his barrier trial

He’s only a group 3 winner so why pick?

Going shouldn’t be an issue, he’s won on good and soft

He’s record of first starts after layoff is 5 starts 4 wins

Ok, this is a group 1 but that’s still impressive

Can be get a placing, I think so and maybe even a win

Hopefully I am getting some odds here

9 – Hilal

Improved off his start, running 4^th in group 1 at Randwick

He’s a front runner in this race and broke out of the gate well, sat good most of the race and then got tired at the end

He’s season debut, was not as good, 9^th sitting way back before doing not much at the end

Big improvement from race 1 to 2 and may had been just of bit of total fitness

Off the last race, I am including him on my ticket

 

Race 8 NEDS HOW NOW STAKES 1200m 4UM G3

4 – Chain of Lightning

It’s kinda hard to pass up an undefeated horse with a record of 5 for 5

She’s 4yo so they hadn’t rushed her along for this late mature mare

Last win was at this track in group 3 and she had to do some work early to win easily

Back in the field 8^th, got finally settled and made-up group quickly as they turn for home

For any undefeated horse, she went off at 5-1

You won’t get those odds again

2 – Zapateo

Lack luster race last out in group 3 at Randwick

Forwardly placed, improved a bit and then didn’t fire for the finish, running 6^th

Toss race because she won her start before and looked brilliant to blowing them away

Placed 6^th at the early stages she moves up and was 4^th on the turn

So first up she wins, she won her barrier trial too

I think she will reverse form of last and have a better run

7 – Isotope

First start of season ran 6^th, sat 9^th, shuffled back, moved up but had too much to do

Stewards asked for a vet check after the race and it was found that she had to “thumps” which is diaphragmatic flutter caused by dehydration. Humans get the hiccups, this is similar

There was an equipment change in this race of taking off the blinkers and brow band

Well without those issues, she should run better here

Rich’s Ranks

Race 4 NEDS CAULFIELD GUINEAS PRELUDE 

1 – Osipenko
2 – Aft Cabin
11 – Black Samurai
4 – Meridius

Race 5 HERE FOR THE HORSES THOUSAND GUINEAS PRELUDE 

5 – Boogie Dancer
1 – She’s Licketysplit
9 – Hope at Hand
10 – Proscenium Arch

Race 6 CATANACH’S JEWELLERS MRC FOUNDATION CUP 

2 – Earlswood
4 – Sheraz
1 – Gold Trip
9 – Midnight Blue

Race 7 NEDS SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES 

10 – Showmanship
8 – Ayrton
18 (AE) – I Wish I Win
15 – Tuvali
16 – Chaillot (alternate if doesn’t get in)

Race 8 NEDS HOW NOW STAKES 

4 – Chain of Lightning
7 – Isotope
2 – Zapateo
11 – Another Award