Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich go back down under to Caulfield Racecourse and sprinkle in a bonus track, Keeneland for the Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes.
Caulfield Racecourse Horse Racing Tips (Free Caulfield Past Performances)
Race 5 – Herbert Power Stakes
Race 6 – Schillaci Stakes
Race 7 – Might And Power Stakes
Race 8 – Caulfield Guineas
Race 9 – Toorak Handicap
Keeneland Horse Racing Tips – Saturday, October 8, 2022
Race 10 – Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes
Picks with the Professor’s Parlay of the Day
Caulfield Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
R5 NEDS HERBERT POWER STAKES 2400m Qlty G2
8 – Point Nepean
After 3 months away, he needed the start running 9th, forwardly placed with nothing left at the end
His 4 races before were 3 wins 1 second at distances of 2400m to 2800m
Maybe too forwardly placed early or really target is this race?
He has 2 starts 2U and 1 win
This is a step up in the company but if the last race was a prep, then he has a chance here
9 – Regal Lion
After an average first-up, he won the next start in an open company at 1700m
In past racing life, he’s placed in group 2 and 3 races at this distance but never won
In form and if he makes that big run again, he will be in the money
5 – Emissary
Won the first start of the season in a listed company at Caulfield
Raced 5th in next start at Caulfield moving to group 3 company at 2000m
Race in 6th/7th early then moved forward with a chance but didn’t finish
Returns to group 3 company again at a longer distance, let’s see what he can do
R6 LEXUS SCHILLACI STAKES 1100m 3U OPEN G2
1 – Paulele
Ran on ok 6th last out but never was close enough to make that final kick for home
This was vs group 1 company at Moonee Valley
He’s placed 3 times in group 1 company and has 1 win from 4 races at the group 2 level and won 2 and 1 placing with 3 races in group 3 so I think he is well suited to win here
He’s done better 1U but does have a win 2U
He just needs to move forward off last and should finish stronger in this race
6 – In The Boat
Raced at Caulfield last out and first of the season in group 3 to run 5th but narrowly missed a higher placing
His 2U record in 2 starts 2 placings but not at this level
He should be on the lead and being a little short on form last out, could hang on for a placing here
7 – Express Pass
The first start after a 2-month break was a good one, 3rd at 1100m in an open company race
Moves up in class off that effort and has a good 2U record of 5 starts 2 wins and 2 placings
He’s won 2 times at this distance but I think a placing in the correct spot but not to win
R7 NEDS MIGHT AND POWER 2000m 3U OPEN G1
7- Anamoe
Won first 2 starts of the season in group 1 races going 1400m & 1600m
Has won at this distance before
Very consistent horses with 11 starts 5 wins 5 placings at Group 1 level
He will sit close to the place and depending on the tempo of the race will move forward when asked
One concern is that the post-race vet check found that he was lame in 1 of the forelegs but since the trainer has reported no issues
1 – Zaaki
He won his first start of the season in group 2 company going 1400m
The description of the race was he plowed through the heavy going to win
Last start at 1800m in group 1 company, he ran 3rd of 6
He may have been comprised in the race because the rider of another horse struck him 2 times early on in the race
Ran 2nd most of the race but didn’t have the final kick to finish
He’s won at this distance in the past and should show up again to run a strong race
5 – Mo’unga
3 group 1 races this season, ran 2nd, 3rd and in his first start 10th.
Adding distance each time from 1400m to 1600m to 1800m
Has won at this distance but in 4 tries placed 2nd one other time
He seems to like more distance because in races of 2000m or more, his worst finish is 4th
With many in this field not winning ever at this distance, this may be the right time and place to have a good run
R8 NEDS CAULFIELD GUINEAS 1600m 3 OPEN G1
4 – Millane
Lots of problems at the start of the race last out and was in midpack most of the race and never made a progress forward, lost the race at the start
He had 1 win and that was in a listed race at Flemington, first start
2nd start, ran 3rd with issues
In 3rd race, no cover ran wide still ran 3rd in a fast race sat 4th but not doing enough vs the winner
So, we have a horse that gets into trouble, so a clean race will result in better performance, I hope so at a price
1 – Tijuana
Won last at 1600m in group 2 company with an awkward start
But this has generally been the case with this horse, in 4 of 5 races, he’s had issues at the start
In the one race he didn’t have issues, he broke on top and did enough at the end to win
What’s going to happen this time?
2 – Berkeley Square
Sat in the back of the field last race, the tempo of the race was fast and this suited him because moving strongly forward, he won without any problem over my 2nd choice
This was a change in tactics because he ran on the lead in the race before and won that won too
He has been moving up in the company from his maiden start with a 2nd in an open company race, the first of the season
Favorite off last? Let’s see what the trainer/rider chooses to do this time in the running of the race
R9 HYLAND RACE COLOURS TOORAK HANDICAP 1600m OPEN G1
13 – Pinstriped
He’s run once in group 1 company and not placed but coming off the last 2 races, I think he has a chance to continue to improve
In both races, he sat in the rear and made one run
A 3rd in the last race group 3 in a race where the tempo suited the frontrunners, he made up ground
In his first race of the season, he ran 2nd in a listed race with some problems brushing another horse
Again, sat toward the back of the field
Step up in class but looks like he’s coming into his own to run big here
2 – Converge
2 not so good races to begin the season
Why, soft to heavy track, the tempo of the last race, ran 6th and 9th
Why pick? Good track has won at this level and distance
Last race, sat last and finished last
The first race of the season, more forwardly placed but went the wrong way late
He’s won 2 group 1 races from 6 starts and 3 from 6 at this distance
Turn it around here on a good going
3 – Dalasan
2 races this season 1 win vs listed company and then a 6th in group 1 company
Problems at the break in the last race, in the back of the field and pickup his tempo at the end
Even in the race he won, he had some issues and got up in time
With enough pace in this race, he should be along for a placing because there appears to be 5 frontrunners
Rich’s Ranks
Race 5 – Herbert Power Stakes
4 -Desert Icon
12 – Saracen Knight
6 – Makram
7 – Schabau
Race 6 – Schillaci Stakes
4 – Zoustyle
7 – Express Pass
6 – In the Boat
5 – General Beau
Race 7 – Might And Power Stakes
4 – Mr Brightside
7 – Anamoe
3 – Alligator Blood
1 – Zaaki
Race 8 – Caulfield Guineas
2 – Berkeley Square
1 – Tijuana
11 – Elkington Road
7 – Meridius
Race 9 – Toorak Handicap
8 – Tuvalu
11 – Military Expert
7 – Buffalo River
9 – Gentleman Roy
Keeneland Racetrack Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
22-1 Tom’s Tips
Race 10 – $1M Coolmore Mile Stakes
9 – Casa Creed
This is the “now” horse for me
Very impressive win at SAR in the last race the Fourstardave settled behind the speed and made one powerful run
The Jaipur was sort of the same race at BEL sitting back and pouncing at the right time
A have to toss his Dubai race, maybe too close to the leader
And in Saudi Arabic, lost to a Japanese horse who was damn good
At 6, he’s run the 2 best races of his career last time out
Repeat again, yes, and yes.
4 – Gray’s Fable
Last race at KD, a bad break at the start and lost the race right there, toss
Won a 1-mile race at Ellis with a late kick
Showed speed at IND and backed off behind Ivar and company running 6th
He’s a grade 3 winner and this is his first try at a grade 1 company at the odds, I give him a really good chance to upset the field here
2 – Smooth Like Strait
Has great tactical speed and will need it here with the other front runners
But his last win was 5/2021 at SA going 1 mile
After that race, a grade 1, he’s been very good at running 2nd 6 times and 3rd once
This is in good company grade 1 or 2 races
I hope that he doesn’t get “cooked” on the lead because another in the money may happen again
Rich’s Ranks
Race 10 – Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes
7 – Santin
6 – Ivar
5 – Masen
2 – Smooth Like Strait
