Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich head to Ireland to take on the Curragh and a pair of Guineas races and more.
Saturday
Race 3 – Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes Group 2
Race 4 – Tattersals Irish 2000 Guineas Group 1
Sunday
Race 3 – Tattersalls Gold Cup Group 1
Race 4 – Lanwades Stud Stakes Group 2
Race 5 – Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas Group 1
Curragh Racecourse Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom
Saturday
Race 3 – Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes Group 2
1 – A Case Of You
14 starts 7 wins 2 seconds 2 thirds
Last 2 races in Dubai have been successful with 1 win in G1 and a 2nd to Man Of Promise in a G3 race
Before shipping to Dubai he prepped in all-weather race at Dundalk and won in a field of 4 but when off at 4-1 he was the favorite
Before the layoff, he raced in the Breeders Cup and ran 5th to Golden Pal.
It was after his start at Royal Ascot and then a layoff, he got going and has been in the money 6 out 7 times except the BC race.
He has won and placed on all types of track conditions
Favorite
5 – Majestic Colt
19 starts 9 wins 2 thirds
On paper the last start at 5F looks average but he was up with the leaders and then drop back and ran an even race
The race at Cork was a mess at 7F, showed little in 25 horse field at big odds
Why pick? His first 2 races in Ireland were after being away from the track for 1 year and needed these races
Import from Germany, he won and places at distances of 6F, 6 1/2F and 7F on all type of track conditions
I think he needed some races to get back in form
He’s a Godolphin cast off purchased for $20k EUR
Big price
3 – Glen Shiel
35 starts 8 wins 10 seconds 1 third
After some disappointing efforts in 2021, he finally got a placing at Ascot in his last start of the season running 2nd to Creative Force in G1 race
Comes back in this year in C2 race at Haydock and runs 2nd to Brad The Brief and the favorite
Early in his career, he ran in races of 1 mile or more with mixed results, they dropped him to shorter distance also with mixed result but running against better company in handicaps to G1 races and placing.
I don’t think he can win but 2nd races off the bench he should make a good accounting of himself
Likes all type of track conditions and he’s won at the Curragh before
Race 4 – Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas Group 1
7 – Native Trail
6 starts 5 wins 1 second
In last start, the 2000 Guineas he lost to his stablemate Coroebus as the favorite
It was a good race overall and they are both talented horses
Shipped to the Curragh to try and win the 2000 Guineas classic here, he’s won at the Curragh before
He ran 7F races as a 2-year-old and then first start of the year, he goes 1 mile for a winning effort
He’s the favorite for a reason, he good, fast and distance isn’t an issue
Godolphin owned and the team of Charlie Appleby/William Buick
1 – Atomic Joes
3 starts 2 wins
He needed his last start, never on even terms in the race, held back of the field at the start, made some headway and then flattened out. Needed race. The winner of this race is the favorite right now for the Epsom Derby
I have some question about the distance last out, 1 ¼ too far?
Won at 7F and 8F as a 2-year-old and with a race under his 3-year-old belt, he will run better here
He won his maiden at the Curragh
4 – Imperial Fighter
5 starts 1 win 2 seconds 1 third
Ran 3rd in a listed race last out at Newcastle on the all-weather and it was an adventuresome trip, steadied at the start, looking for racing room with less than 2F to go and was shut off, keep on but traffic issue did him in. The jockey said in the post-race stewards meeting that he had not place to go, it looked that way to me too.
Second start of the year is a challenge, but they must think they have something to make the run here
He’s been behind the better horses and group 1 winners
Get a better trip, like the going (which is some question) and he can place here
Sunday
Race 3 – Tattersalls Gold Cup Group 1
8 – State Of Rest
10 starts 4 wins 1 second 2 thirds
Won last at Longchamp by 3/4L in group 1
Last 2 races last year were winning efforts
He beaten good to very good horses
One of the favorites
3 – Broome
22 starts 7 wins 6 seconds
Toss last in Tokyo was awful
Ran second in Breeders Cup to Yibir, one of better races
Good record at the Curragh 4 starts 2 wins 1 second
Aiden O’Brian coming off layoff should be interesting
2 – Bear Story
14 starts 2 wins 5 seconds 3 thirds
3 races this year and 3 in the money finishes in listed and group 2 & 3
Beaten by the same horse in those races – Layfayette
But, he’s been getting closer because he had some issues in the first race of season lugging in
Second race was better and was closer at the end sitting of the leaders
Last race was even better missing by 3/4L
Win? I doubt it but again paying the bills with an in the money finish, yes!
Race 4 – Lanwades Stud Stakes Group 2
5 – Pearls Galore
13 starts 5 wins 3 seconds 1 third
Won first start of the year at Leopardstown at the favorite in listed race, it was nice win over good horses, and she sat behind the leaders
At the Breeders Cup, she was in striking range but did move forward, 6th
At Longchamp, she fared better running driven up and challenge to the finish 2nd.
Both races the winner was Space Blues
She’s group 1 places and winner in group 3 races
8 – Twilight Spinner
6 starts 3 wins 1 second 2 thirds
Winner at 7F in group 3 at the Curragh last out, track the leaders, when as to go she did
She never run a bad race, and face listed and group company after her maiden win
She ran 3rd in her first start of the year and appeared have needed that race
This is her first try at 1 mile
1 – Diadora
12 starts 2 wins 3 seconds 5 thirds
Good useful 2nd last out at Naas towards the front to start, back off a bit then rejoined the leaders with 2F to go, appears to have needed a race. She was the joint favorite
She’s a German import and her only 2 wins were at Dusseldorf
2 races at the group level running 3rd & 4th
Coming off that last race, she has a nice chance for a placing here
Race 5 – Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas Group 1
11 – Purplepay
8 starts 3 wins 2 seconds 2 thirds
Was transferred to William Haggas after good efforts in France
Ran 3rd to Angel Bleu at St Cloud in group 1 Criterium with a run of tracking the leaders move strongly throughout but couldn’t get to the leaders at the end
She has run good in all her starts except her first start
She moved up the 2-year-old ranks and run on all types of track conditions
First start of the year and with the new trainer, they must have high hope here
9 – Mise En Scene
4 starts 2 wins
Missed starting in the 1000 Guineas at Newbury because had a fever and was a vet scratch
So, this is plan B
Winner of novices and group 2 races, she than ran 4th in group 1 at Newmarket
The trainer/owners though she was good enough to send to the Breeders Cup but not a successful run finishing 10th
This is her first start of the year and with the earlier issues cleared up, she’s ready to go winning her maiden as her first start
5 – History
4 starts 2 wins 2 seconds
Last out winner in group 3 at Leopardstown with a strong return
Move midpack then forward with 2F left to go and past the leaders with easily to win
It took her 3 starts to win her maiden but lost to future listed winners. Beating on last time out
She won on good and yielding group and twice at this distance
If she keeps rolling, she will be tough with this bunch
Rich’s Ranks
Saturday
Race 3 – Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes Group 2
9 – Mooneista
1 – A Case of You
3 – Glen Schiel
4 – Gustavus Weston
Race 4 – Tattersals Irish 2000 Guineas Group 1
7 – Native Trail
2 – Buckaroo
9 – Wexford Native
3 – Duke De Sessa
Sunday
Race 3 – Tattersalls Gold Cup Group 1
8 – State of Rest
6 – Lord North
4 – Helvic Dream
3 – Broome
Race 4 – Lanwades Stud Stakes Group 2
8 – Twilight Spinner
4 – Pearls Galore
1 – Diadora
3 – My Holy Fox
Race 5 – Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas Group 1
5 – History
13 – Tuesday
11 – Purplepay
1 – Agartha
