Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
It’s off to Ireland for the Irish Derby and more Curragh fun, including:
Saturday:
Race 2: Summer Fillies Handicap
Race 4: Railway Stakes
Race 5: Irish Derby
Race 6: International Stakes
Sunday:
Race 5: Pretty Polly Stakes
Free Curragh Past Performances Saturday and Sunday (coming)
The Curragh Horse Racing Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s International Tips
Saturday
2:00
Dubai Duty Free Summer Fillies Handicap (Premier Handicap) (3yo+) 7f
3 – Emilie Gray – Draw 3
10 starts 1 win 2 seconds 2 thirds
One placing in stakes race
Been running against better company and this is a much more suited spot
Find winning form here
4 – Marbling – Draw 10
13 starts 2 wins 1 second 1 third
Off a long break, ran 7th losing by 5L in handicap
Collin Keene won on this horse at Dundalk on the AW
Need start
7 – Night Of Romance – Draw 11
15 starts 4 wins 2 seconds 1 third
Interest that 6 races on AW have been not great but running on the turf is it’s thing
Won last by 2L at 7F at Gowan Park in handicap
Right back and had showed nothing in 5 starts before last win
Right spot, show have a nice run here
3:05
GAIN Railway Stakes (Group 2) (2yo) 6f
3 – Blackbeard – Draw 6
4 starts 3 wins
Just ran at Ascot 4th as the favorite in grade 2
Grade 3 and listed winner
He run better here against these horses
5 – Crispy Cat – Draw 3
4 starts 1 win 2 seconds 1 third
Ran behind the 50-1 shot at Ascot to the The Riddler by 2L lost was a good overall run, in good form
Should be around for some money again
2 – Apache Outlaw – Draw 5
3 starts 1 win 1 second 1 third
Won last by 3/4L at 6F and first time on good track
Both races before were on soft/heavy and yielding course
Good odds and maybe a good chance to repeat
3:45
Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (No Geldings) (3yo) 1m4f
5 – Lionel – Draw 4
3 starts 1 win 1 second 1 third
Never wins or loses by much – nk win, 3/4L and 3/4L loses
Been running at 11F and done well overall for me
Shipping in with a good chance – Jamie Spencer to ride again
6 – Piz Badlie – Draw 2
4 starts 2 wins 1 second
Awful last in the Epsom Derby way back and showed nothing
Won at 10F before that derby by a head in group 3
Return to have Gavin Ryan riding
7 – Westover – Draw 5
5 starts 2 wins 2 seconds 1 third
Ok effort last out in Epson Derby running 3rd at 25-1
Good efforts at 8F and 10F so is this too long
I will toss in for a money run
4:20
ARM Holding International Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+) 1m2f
2 – MacSwiney – Draw 3
15 starts 4 wins 1 third
The last 5 races, he’s run in group 1 races, one in Hong Kong and the best effort was a third at Ascot in October 2021
He’s been toss in with some of the best runners and class relief is what he needs
He is a group 1 winner and he beat Poetic Flare at the Curragh
He has 3 wins on the track and I like to spot for him
1 – Bear Story – Draw 7
15 starts 2 wins 5 seconds 3 thirds
All races at 10F in last 6 races in group 1 down to listed races
Likes the track and is getting some class relief
No big odds this time and should show up again
3 – Visualisation – Draw 4
13 starts 4 wins 2 seconds 2 thirds
He’s not found the winners circle yet from 3 starts this year but ran 3rd in group 2 at the Curragh
I think he’s good enough to get in the money
Sunday
3:45
Alwasmiyah Pretty Polly Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) (3yo+) 1m2f
2 – La Petite Coco – Draw 6
7 starts 4 wins 1 second
Hasn’t raced since September when she beat Love by a head in group 2 at the Curragh
First start of the year is always a concern of form by she’s won off a layoff before and started last season at the maiden level to become a group 2 & 3 winner
If she’s fit and sound, she’s the won to beat
8 – Purplepay – Draw 1
10 starts 4 wins 2 seconds 2 thirds
Won last at Chantilly by 2 1/2L at 8F, look very good
Vs her race at 8F at the Curragh in her first start of the year in the group 1000 Irish Guineas, need start
She ran well last year in France with 3 wins and one at 8.5F
If we dismiss her 1st run of the year, she should be tough to beat
Being a 3 year old at this time of year, she gets a weight allowance in races against older horses
3 – My Astra – Draw 7
5 starts 3 wins 1 second 1 third
Superb win at Ayr last out at 10F by 12L and it could have been more
Late developing horse who’s first start was July 2021
She started this season on the AW at Kempton in 8F race as the favorite and like others, needed the race running 3rd by 1/2L
She’s diving into the group level for the first time and fitness isn’t a question but can she compete at this level after her listed races?
Rich’s Ranks
Saturday
Race 2: Summer Fillies Handicap
11 – Karkiyna
3 – Emilie Gtay
8 – She’s Trouble
7 – Night of Romance
Race 4: Railway Stakes
6 – Shartash
3 – Blackbeard
2 – Apache Outlaw
5 – Crispy Cat
Race 5: Irish Derby
5 – Lionel
8 – Tuesday
7 – Westover
1 – Boundless Ocean
Race 6: International Stakes
7 – Vega Magnifico
4 – Rumbles of Thunder
2 – Mac Swiney
1 – Bear Story
Sunday:
Race 5: Pretty Polly Stakes
2 – La Petite Coco
1 – Dreamloper
6 – Concert Hall
4 – Rosscarbery
