Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich stay in England at Newbury for the Lockinge Stakes, part of the British Championship Series.
Newbury Racecourse (Free Newbury Past Performances)
Race 1: Aston Park Stakes
Race 3: London Gold Cup Handicap
Race 4: Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes
Race 5: World Pool Handicap
Race 6: OCS Handicap
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track of the Day: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Newbury Horse Racing Picks
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
RACE 1
Sky Sports Racing Aston Park Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f
8 – Salt Bay – Draw 1
Nice run last out in a group 3 race and this track, losing by a neck. He has done well in his two races at Newbury. He only has one win but appears to be on the improve. He won’t go off at 33-1 this time.
7 – Middle Earth – Draw 5
Before layoff, he won his final race in October at Ascot in a list race. He tried group 1 company at Doncaster without success. Good place for a debut for the return to the races.
1 – Boister – Draw 3
Won his first start of the season at Pontefract in a class 2 race making all of the running. If he sets a sensible pace, he could steal this race but I pick in run in the money because he will have enough left at the end.
RACE 2
Highclere Castle Gin Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 6f
2 – Dawn Charger – Draw 9
9 – Pocklington – Draw 8
3 – Elite Status – Draw 2
RACE 3
Trade Nation London Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo) 1m2f
2 – Chantilly – Draw 12
After four races of almost, he finally won at Leopardstown by four-plus lengths, and it could have been more. Maybe adding more distance was the key. He stalked the leader and moved forward in plenty of time.
6 – Goodwood Odyssey – Draw 13
Undefeated on the turf and ran second on the all-weather. He’s been running on the soft to good to soft going with success. Distance should suit this surface.
9 – Brioni
He won on the all-weather at Kempton going one mile two starts back, then ran second in my last start to my second choice. All of his four runs have been good overall with in the money finishes.
RACE 4
Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m
11 – Inspiral – Draw 1
She won her last race, going over one mile, proving she could win over one mile; that race was the Breeder’s Cup Filly & Mare Turf race, beating Warm Heart, who won her next start at Gulfstream in a grade one. She’s been an effective miler, but every once in a while, she tosses in a stinker. She has won a layoff in the top company before. Will return to defend her BC win?
3 – Charyn – Draw 6
Won his first two starts this year in a listed and then a group two both at one mile. Maybe maturity is the difference, and if he holds to form, he should be running well at the end.
2 – Big Rock – Draw 9
He shipped in from France to crush the field on British Champion Days at one mile. He lost to Inspiral at Deauville by one and one-quarter length. He may have the best 3yo in France, but there was Ace Impact, who retired undefeated after winning the ARC. He will be on the front end and they will have to close to catch him.
RACE 5
HKJC World Pool Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f
2 – Significantly – Draw 2
Not much in his first two starts of the season in a class 2 handicap and a group three race. He finished last season with a win and two seconds in class 2 handicaps. He appears to have needed the starts and I think this is the race to get a win.
6 – Wiltshire – Draw 7
His last two races were winning ones but by slim margins. There were in class 3 company and moves up today. He only has the one win on the turf and that was in his last race. He’s tried better company without success but now in good form, he will hang in tough here.
10 – United Approach – Draw 11
This is an interesting horse because he had two starts in 2022, a win and a fifth. He started once in 2023 and won as the favorite at Doncaster. Now he returns in 2024, what will happen? Another win? He moved up from novices’ races, but I don’t think they would run him if he was not ready. Jamie Spencer has the mount.
RACE 6
OCS Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m
4 – Talis Evolvere – Draw 4
He has performed well at the class 2 and 3 levels since January, except when he was pulled up and checked and had for a respiratory noise issue. Otherwise, he has two wins, two second and one third, which was his last run on the good to soft at Newbury. Game performer and get Ryan Moore services to ride.
6 – Slipofthepen – Draw 12
After winning twice and then running third in listed races, he ran a really average race last time out at Newmarket. One thing to consider is that he was running with the far side of the track in that group, and that side wasn’t the place to be that day. So, I will excuse that race and give him another chance.
8 – Godwinson – Draw 10
He ran second last time out to one of the horses in this race but started slowly, which cost him the race by half a length. Only a maiden win in a four race career and you can excuse the all-weather race. He won his maiden second up, maybe again.
RACE 7
Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f
6 – Siyola
1 – Diamond Rain
2 – Ejaabiyah
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: Aston Park Stakes – 8:50 am est
7 – MIDDLE EARTH – best performances are on good footing – 2 wins and a second
3 – DESERT HERO – missed by a head at this level last out, 2nd up but his two worst outings on good
6 – MAXI KING – going to take a shot with one that looks like a new horse after more than a year off
5 – KING OF CONQUEST – expecting a more in round two off the bench and has a third at Newbury
Race 3: London Gold Cup Handicap – 10:00 am est
14 – INDIVIDUALISM – hasn’t won yet, well bet in his last and should improve in 2nd up
6 – GOODWOOD ODYSSEY – unbeaten in a pair on grass and one at the distance
1 – BLACK RUN – 3rd up, won 2 races, both the Marquand riding – 2/2 – guess who is up today?
12 – PREPSCHOOL – has one trip on good footing, by far his best effort
Race 4: Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes – 10:35 am est
7 – POKER GACE – distance 6/4-2 – chance to improve in 2nd up
11 – INSPIRAL – BC winner – beat the ML FAV and next pick, concern in Dettori not riding – new jock
2 – BIG ROCK – turf – 7/3-4-0 only one off effort in 11 races – 1st up likes to finish 2nd
8 – REAL WORLD – ITM 7/8 at a mile – Newbury – 2/1-1-0
Race 5: World Pool Handicap – 11:10 am est
1 – WILLEM TWEE – more stamina today – all or nothing at distance/surface 4/2-0-0
8 – UNDER THE TWILIGHT – chance to be better in 2nd up, a third at Newbury and distance 5/2-01
10 – UNITED APPROACH – straight wildcard after more than a year off – was just a length from being unbeaten in 3
11 – WOOLHAMPTON – got to give this one a shot – 7 pound weight break – most success at Newbury 5/0-2-1
Race 6: OCS Handicap – 11:45 am est
7 – METAL MERCHANT – resume says second off the sidelines will look like 1st – won last
11 – TWO TEMPRING – runs well on good footing – 3rd up and solid at a mile 9/1-4-1
12 – AALTO – some in race issues and still finished 2nd last out – 2 of 3 turf races work here
8 – GODWINSON – best race, and it isn’t close, was in the 2nd up, like today
