Newmarket Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich see if they can keep it hot with another Foreign Friday and British Champions Series race at Newmarket.
Race 2: Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap
Race 3: Mile Handicap
Race 4: Superlative Stakes
Race 5: Bunbury Cup
Race 6: July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series)
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Free Newmarket Picks
22 to 1 Tom’s Newmarket Tips
Race 1 – 1:40
Rossdales British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race) Cl3 (2yo) 7f
4 – Desert Flower
7 – Flight
5 – Duty First
Race 2 – 2:12
Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f
3 – Hard To Resist – Draw 6
The first start of the season was at Royal Ascot. It went off at 40-1 and ran like a 40-1 chance, twenty-two of thirty. It showed early but not much, with two furlongs left in the race. A winner of only a novice winner, she raced in group races, running third, fourth, and fourth. Now with a run, she will show up and win, promising an exciting race.
7 – Not Real – Draw 9
With only a three-race career, she’s run in the money in all her races with a win at Redcar on the soft going by four and a half lengths. In her last race, she was forwardly placed and rallied at the end but was not well enough to win. She moves up in class but shows sufficient to run in the money again.
11 – Miss Bodacious – Draw 3
She has won her last two races, one of which was a dead heat when she raced midpack and moved strongly to get up in time. In her last start, she won at Newmarket going six furlongs in a class five race. She steps up but appears to be getting better with each start.
Race 3 – 2:50
bet365 Mile Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m
6 – Volterra – Draw 15
He ran at Royal Ascot last time and beat the ten runners in his group but finished eleventh in the race. He was the joint favorite, but in big field races at Royal Ascot, your draw can make a difference between winning or being an also-ran. His previous two starts were winning at class 4 and 3 races. He steps up in class but should return to form with a win here at decent odds.
9 – Champagne Prince – Draw 5
He won his first two starts on the all-weather, going seven furlongs by over three lengths. In his next race, they placed him in a group 3 race at Newmarket, and he ran last by twenty-one lengths. But that was his first start of the year, and he dwelt at the beginning and was eased at the finish. He will run better today.
11 – Daarkom – Draw 11
In his first start of the season, he ran third after a not-so-great start at Windsor on the good to firm going. Overall, it could have been a better race, with problems from start to finish. A better effort today should be expected.
Race 4 – 3:25
bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f
6 – Pentle Bay
A win of his first start while sitting in the rear of the field and finishing fast and powerfully. His next start was on the good-to-firm going at Royal Ascot, where he dwelt at the beginning, sat in the rear of the field, and beat the rest of the field, but he was nine-and-a-half lengths behind to the winner, Bedtime Story. This was a good race, and he should run well again. The only concern right now is that the front runners are doing well.
4 – Line Of Force – Draw 8
He comes into this race undefeated, with winning efforts as the favorite in lower-level races, both at six furlongs. He’s winning with some lengths in front of the second horse. He’s handled the good to soft and will contact the leaders. He has an excellent chance to continue to improve.
1 – Ancient Truth – Draw 1
He is undefeated, with both of his wins at Newmarket. He likes to race on the front, which helps on the Rowley course. He’s not run on the softer going, but if William Buick puts him on the lead and sets a moderate pace, he could out-finish the field. I prefer to pick someone else on top at the current odds.
Race 5 – 4:00
bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f
15 – Spirit Genie – Draw 16
A winner of his last two races by the neck and a nose at seven furlongs and eight and a half furlongs. He runs well at this distance, with three wins and one second. This is a horse who sit in the back of the field before kicking on. The pace appears strong in this race, which should improve his chances of a three-peat. In this field size, following the right group may make the difference.
2 – Mostabshir – Draw 11
Over the good to the firm going at Royal Ascot, he ran fourth and appeared to be maybe short on 100% form even though this was his third race of the season. His race before at Ascot was a stinker being carried left and lost all chances. This will play to run in the money and should get a good trip.
8 – Finn’s Chance – Draw 15
Tossing the last race at Royal Ascot, he raced forward and was poorly hampered and backup to run 40 lengths behind. He came into the race off a win at Goodwood in a class 3 at this distance. He’s an off-and-on horse, and I will play him to be on today.
Race 6 – 4:35
My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f
3 – Kinross – Draw 12
He ran second in his first start of the second on the all-weather in a group 3 race at six furlongs. He led in the final furlong to get caught at the end. He ran last year with a couple of Group 2 wins. Was his first race a prep for this race being the target by the trainer? I think so and will play him to win.
11 – River Tiber – Draw 4
I think that I am tossing out his last two races even though he ran third in the Guineas at the Curragh. Why you may ask, distance. I think his best distance is six furlongs with two wins and one third from three starts. He appears to like some moisture in the group for a best effort.
7 – Swingalong – Draw 7
Ran strongly at Royal Ascot, losing to the repeat winner, Khaadem, in group 1. She generally runs good races, and this distance is the only distance she’s won at and placed in. With these odds, I will give her a chance against this field.
Race 7 – 5:10
Trust A Trader Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m4f
8 – Ciro Di Marzio
11 – Wonder Kid
7 – Goodwood Odyssey
Rich’s Newmarket Ranks
Race 2: Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap – Post Time 9:12 am ET
11 – MISS BODACIOUS – easy Newmarket win in last and resume says more to come in 2nd up
2 – KEY TO COTAI – is a ½ length from winning both at Newmarket
9 – LOU LOU’S GIFT – really hasn’t run a bad race yet, there is a good chance today could be her best
7 – NOT REAL – maybe the most unseen ability in fourth career start
Race 3: Mile Handicap – Post Time 9:50 am ET
8 – LIVEANDLETLIVE – improving and another step forward and it will be three wins in a row
1 – ARABIC LEGEND – ran a huge race last out – a repeat or something close would be hard to beat
11 – DAARKOM – 2nd up and made huge gains in the only other 2nd up
4 – QIRAT – maybe his last race performance is overlooked, decent finish in field of 29
Race 4: Superlative Stakes – Post Time 10:25 am ET
8 – THE PARTHENON – debuted in a G3 for O’Brien and Moore – they think they have something here
1 – ACIENT TRUTH – unbeaten in 2 and both are at Newmarket and fairly easily
4 – LINE OF FORCE – won his debut “easily” and then eased to wire in his last – don’t know how good this one is or how bad the competition was – we’ll know today
6 – PENTLE BAY – a bounce back race to his debut and very well could find the winners enclosure
Race 5: Bunbury Cup – Post Time 11:00 am ET
10 – GORAK – any of his last 2 Newmarket races are likely winning efforts
1 – AWAAL – probably the most class in the race – best outing, by far, was lone Newmarket run
15 – SPIRIT GENIE – trending up, won the only time he had good footing and 2nd in debut at Newmarket
4 – TALIS EVOLVERE – been facing some tough company and running competitively – expecting a nice move forward at a price today
Race 6: July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) – Post Time 11:35 am ET
12 – VANDEEK – best race on the firm footing gets that here
9 – INISHERIN – got to have him – but very concerned about pairing peak races and regression
10 – JASOUR – three best races with James Crowley riding – he rides today
6 – REGIONAL – first time in a year making it three races in a row without a break – healthy
