Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich stay busy on Saturday and Sunday starting in England for the Epsom Derby and then crossing the channel on Sunday for the Prix du Jockey Club in France.
Saturday – June 4, 2022
Epsom Racecourse
Race 2: Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Raec 3: Cazoo Diomed Stakes
Race 4: Simpex Express ‘Dash’
Race 5: Cazoo Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
Sunday – June 5, 2022
Chantilly Racecourse – free resources https://www.france-galop.com/en
Raec 3: Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby)
Epsom and Chantilly Horse Racing Pick and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s International Tips
Epsom – Saturday, June 4
Race 2 2:35
Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Cazoo) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m½f
9 – Majestic Glory
7 starts 2 wins 1 second 1 third
Last out in group 3 losing 13/4L to Wild Beauty, she had problems at the start, held back with the near side runners, 1F out she made up ground to join the leaders and finished inside, good run for first start of the season
Group 3 winners at Newmarket in July
First attempt at distance but breeding says no problem being a daughter of Frankel
She’s the only 3-year-old in the races and gets a big weight allowance vs this field which favors 3-year-old runners
4 – Potapova
6 starts 2 wins 1 second
Ran 2nd on the all-weather at Kempton last out for first start of the year
She has 1 win as a 2-year-old and 1 win as a 3-year-old but her group 3 runs haven’t been the best with 9th at Royal Ascot, 4th at Sandown, 10th at Doncaster.
I think she will improve off her first start and Ryan Moore rides again
1 – Bashkirova
5 starts 3 wins 1 second
Nice run last out at Goodwood in listed race running 2nd and she was caught at the end.
Late developing horse didn’t make debut until August and then won 3 in a row in maiden, novice and class 2
Should continue to improve but is giving up weight to the 3-year-old
Won at distance and going
Favorite but odds could be ok
Race 3 – 3:10
Cazoo Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m½f
4 – Modern News
10 starts 6 wins 1 second 1 third
Started the season in Dubai with a 3rd in listed race, move to Doncaster and ran the worst race of his career vs class 2 runners finishing 7th. This was in the Lincoln the start of the flat season race with 22 runners.
Last 2 runs in class 2 and class 1 races at 1 mile and won both of them
Steps up to group company for the first time and running at distance he likes
Charlies Appleby and William Buick team up again and he will be the favorite
3 – Megallan
13 starts 3 wins 5 seconds 1 third
2 fair efforts in last races 1 at Chester running 3rd in 4 horse field group 2 and running 2nd at Newmarket in group 3
The last race, he didn’t finish and maybe the extra furlong was more than he could handle on the tight turn Chester course
Group 3 winner at Salisbury last year getting weight from the 2nd horse because of being a 3-year-old vs older horses
Gosden’s train and Frankie Dettori will ride
1 – Escobar
55 starts 6 wins 6 seconds 9 thirds
A winner at York last out in first start of season in class 2 with top weight, raced back of the field and came on at 2F mark to win
Never placed in group race before but one stat caught my eye
The jockey who won on the horse last out, Jason Watson has a record of 3 starts 1 win 1 second 1 third on this very experienced horse
Not the winner but placing would be an excellent result
Race 4 – 3:45
Simpex Express “Dash” Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 5f
19 – Tees Spirit
13 starts 3 wins 2 seconds 2 thirds
Won last 2 races at the class 5 and 4 levels doing enough and then some. He appears to be a quickly improving horse.
He made all the running last out but I see him more sitting off the pace before moving at 2F marker
My question is, too aggressive of a move up?
He gets a break in the weights; his regular rider is up and he’s going 3 in a row.
Favorite last time out, he won’t be today
10 – Live In The Dream
8 starts 3 wins 1 third
A winner of the last 2 at the class 2 level at Chester and Sandown
Came up along the rail to win in last
3-year-old faces older horses here and get small weight advantage plus get 3 additional off because they are using an apprentice who’s won on the horse before
Should be forwardly placed and could have easily been placed in a group race for 3-year-olds but they chose this rather than take the bigger risk, maybe later
1 – Justanotherbottle
48 starts 9 wins 5 seconds 7 thirds
First start of the season was more of any trial running against listed company, good start but didn’t finish
Next start he had a good start and ran 2nd in class 2 races
Last out, again went to the front and back down right at the end losing 2 places and finish 4th
He be on or very near the lead again down the straight away and with the inside position should have some advantage to finish stronger than before
4:30
Cazoo Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f
13 – Star of India
3 starts 2 wins
Last out in listed race at Chester at 10.5F was forwardly placed and push between 3F to 2F to go move to the right to get room and finished off strongly for the win
First race of the season, in group 3 he saw the back end of Native Trail and was never in the race at 8F
Won his first start as a 2 year old at 7F
He’s bred for middle distances and his siblings 7/6 of them has won at distances of 6.5F to 10F so is this too far? He’s sire in Galileo who was champion at all distance he ran and won this race
The other siblings are main bred for the middle distance and at the end of Galileo stud career he was being bred to sprinting type mares and get distance horses out of them.
Looking for a least 15-1 odds
14 – Stone Age
7 starts 2 wins 3 seconds 1 third
His first 2 races of the year are visual impress, winning by 51/2L and 9L
He didn’t win as a 2-year-old which suggests he need to mature, well it worked.
He ran 2nd in maiden race to a future stakes winner, ran 2nd next out in group 2 and beaten by 5L in group 1 next out.
Final 2-year-old race, he ran 2nd in group 1 on very soft going in Saint Cloud
Sired by Galileo and dam ran at distances of 10F or more but only won a maiden race. Her other foal never won
He’s odds are second to the favorite (who I am trying to beat)
Ryan Moore/Aiden O’Brian
9 – Nations Pride
5 starts 4 wins 1 second
He was not nominated to this race so he had to be supplemented in
He won his last race by 7L a listed race at Newmarket at 10F in four horse field
He won a 3 year old race in Dubai by 3 1/4L
Both races over good going
He’s won 2 races on the all-weather
His maiden start, he ran second on turf on good to soft going
Sire was unbeaten as a 2 year old and retired due to injuries but has produced class runners that run in many different countries at all distances
Dam has produced 3 runners 2 winners, she won races up to 1 mile 1/16
This is an improving Godolphin runner who they forget to be nominated to the major races?
Chantilly – Sunday. June 5
Race 5 Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) 2100M
14 – Yoozuna
4 starts 2 wins 2 seconds
Last out at Chantilly ran 2nd in 2000m listed race and improved
His shortest race is 1600m and longest is 2100m and won both of them against lesser company
He’s not a top-rated horse in this race but he’s proven over the distance, race at the course and is getting better based on last start
1 – Vadeni
5 starts 3 wins 1 third
He’s won and placed in his 2 races at Chantilly at 1800m, both were group 3 race
Unplaced in 1600m race a ParisLongchamp running 5th for first start of the season
Sire has a few good runners, but the dam was a horse who won 1 race at the distance of 2300m from 5 starts. All her races were at long distances
He wants distance races and at 2100m, it should be perfect
Owner is the AGA Khan and trained by J Rouget and ridden by Christian Soumillon
5 – Onesto
4 starts 2 wins 1 second
A winner last out at Chantilly at 2100m in group 2. He moved strongly at the 400m mark and won in hand. Last to first move
His first start of the season was not good in group 3 but must have needed the start. Back of the field and never moved forward
Sire is Frankel and dam was unraced
Winner over the track and ran winning effort at distance against good company
Rich’s Ranks
Saturday
Epsom Racecourse
Race 2: Princess Elizabeth Stakes
4 – Potapova
3 – Mrs Fitzherbert
1 – Bashkirova
7 – Technique
Race 3: Cazoo Diomed Stakes
4 – Modern News
6 – Zakouski
5 – Mustasaabeq
3 – Megallan
Race 4: Simpex Express ‘Dash’
7 – Fine Wine
13 – Dusky Lord
9 – Equality
15 – Mokaatil
Race 5: Cazoo Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
14 – Stone Age
2 – Desert Crown
9 – Nations Pride
8 – Nahanni
Sunday – June 5, 2022
Chantilly Racecourse
Race 3: Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby)
7 – Modern Games
10 – Lassaut
8 – The Acropolis
