Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
It’s one of the biggest racing days at Sha Tin in Hong Kong. So, where else would you find Tom and Rich?
Sha Tin Racecourse Tips (Free Sha Tin Past Performances)
Race 4 – THE LONGINES HONG KONG VASE
Race 5 – THE LONGINES HONG KONG SPRINT
Race 7 – THE LONGINES HONG KONG MILE
Race 8 – THE LONGINES HONG KONG CUP
Race 10 – HIGHLAND REEL HANDICAP
Sha Tin Racecourse Horse Racing Tips and Analysis
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 4 – The Longines Hong Kong Vase 2400m
5 – Botanik – Post 5
French runner coming off a really bad run in the Prix du Dollar at Longchamp running 10th at distance of 1950m.
Before, 3 wins at Longchamp and Deauville going distances of from 2400m to 2500m over the good to good to soft going.
He beat top Japan runner Stay Foolish
He’s only place in his one group 1 race as a 2yo.
Generally a front runner and should be on the lead.
Trained by Andre Fabre and riding by William Buick (first time)
13 starts 7 wins 2 seconds 1 third
9 – Win Marilyn – Post 3
Very strong 2nd last out in the QEII Cup at Hansin behind a top running in Japan on very soft ground.
But, her wins are on good to firm and good going so better going better results?
Her first start in April was a mess and then took 2 months off, ran a disappointing 7th next start, another 2 months off and ran 3rd in group 2 at Sapporo.
I like that last run over ground she doesn’t necessary like and if she duplicates that effort, should hit the board, that’s why she’s here off that last effort.
16 starts 5 wins 2 second 1 third
10 – Stone Age – Post 1
After some average races at various tracks in the past 5 races at Belmont, Saratoga, Epsom, Leopardstown, Ascot and then…
In the Breeders’ Cup, finally ran a top race to a 1 ½ mile specialist and previous winner, he ran a 2nd with a strong late charge but no match for the winner.
Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore team up again and he should make a good account of himself.
Race 5 – The Longines Hong Kong Sprint 1200m
1 – Wellington – Post 10
Won 4 in a row then ran 6th and he was lame coming out of that race.
He is a 1200m specialist with 14 starts 9 wins and he either wins or doesn’t doing anything.
He likes Sha Tin, gets Ryan Moore along for the ride and must be ok or he won’t be running
3 – Gendarme – Post 8
This is an interesting horse from Japan, he won last out in group 1 hanging close to the lead and running :34.- final running 1:07.8
The problem with this horse is in the last 6 races, he’s either won (2 races) or finished 11th, 13th, 11th or 17th.
These races are in either group 1 or group 3 company
Last win was the first win in group 1 at 20-1
So what’s this horse going to do today? Win or run last.
I don’t think they would ship him to Hong Kong if everything wasn’t going good right now.
4 – Lucky Sweyneese – Post 3
This horse has been going really well over his career, 10 starts 7 wins 2 seconds 1 third.
Won last race at Sha Tin in group 2 layoff the lead (7th) and move forward at the end running 1:07.55, last quarter was :21.88.
Moves up in class and in wonderful form, never out of the money.
Race 7 – The Longines Hong Kong Mile 1600m
1 – Golden Sixty – Post 4
Career record is unbelievable, 25 starts 22 wins 1 second 1 third and at this distance 12 starts 11 wins 1 second.
Won last out in group 2 races running 1:34 with the final quarter :21.32
He’s a closer and when his rolls, he rolls right by them
He won this race last year and his last start was the first start of the season.
1600m is his specialty and he’s the one to beat.
10 – Danon Scorpion – Post 6
Last race sucked, ran 11th of 15 horses and sat middle with no finish. I am tossing the race.
He’s the only 3yo in the race
He’s won a group 1 in Japan at this distance in 3yo race.
He’s a closer and will be flying at the end.
He’s only run too poor races and bounced back from the last one.
Gets the services of William Buick to ride and I think we will get a price on this one.
5 – Waikuku – Post 9
Even race behind Golden Sixty running 3rd last out which was much better that the first start of the season, running 11th. Needed a race.
He’s one of the few horses that have been Golden Sixty in the Stewart’s Cup last year at this distance and he got the jump on his and Golden Sixty had too much to do to win.
He has 3 wins from 11 starts in group 1 races
He should improve off his last start and maybe get the jump on Golden Sixty again?
Race 8 – The Longines Hong Kong Cup 2000m
6 – Danon The Kid – Post 6
He is coming into this race off 3 good runs, 3rd, 3rd, & 2nd.
He moved from group 3 to 2 to 1 and he’s been running 1600m and 1800m races now back to 2000m
In the past, he has won at today’s distance in a group 1 but that was in 2020.
For me, he looks like one that is coming into form and shipping him in for this race maybe the right move.
Longshot but I am willing to take a shot on a horse who hasn’t won in a while.
2 – Romantic Warrior – Post 7
Hasn’t done much wrong lately with the last 3 races are wins at today’s distance.
Overall, 9 starts 8 wins and 1 fourth
He’s moved from class 4 handicaps in 2021 to a group 1 winner
This one who will sit off the lead and make his run late.
In his season debut, he won ran on of his best races in terms of time, going 1:59.23 with the final in :22.83
He’s the won to beat.
11 – Geoglyph – Post 3
Last start was first of the season, running a disappointing 9th but 5L back.
Tried the Japanese Derby at 2400m and had nothing, too far
But won the Japanese 2000 Guineas (Satsuki Sho) at 2000m coming from mid-pack to win.
If you toss the last race as a first run of the season, shipping in for this race and picking up William Buick, maybe he has a chance at a price.
Race 10 – Highland Reel Handicap – 1400m
5 – Ima Single Man – Post 5
He ran 6th last out as the favorite after running second in his last 2 races.
In the running of the last race, he had problems during the running of the race.
He has 8 starts in this class with 1 win 3 seconds 1 third
He also has won at this distance 2 times from 6 starts
Change of rider should help.
9 – Oriental Smoke – Post 7
Won has time by a nose at 1200m and this was second up moving up in class.
His never won at this distance from 4 tries but ran in the money 3 times.
His realty done well this season, 4 starts 3 wins
In form and Zac Purton rides again
4 – The Irishman – Post 5
Not much last out at Happy Valley running 7th. He had trouble in the last race, blocked. A late mover with traffic issues.
In his previous start, he ran from the “clouds” to win by 3/4L.
This another “cloud” runner and with a good trip, should be in the money.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 4 – THE LONGINES HONG KONG VASE
4 – Mendocino
3 – Galaxy Vase
5 – Botanik
10 – Stone Age
Race 5 – THE LONGINES HONG KONG SPRINT
4 – Lucky Sweynesse
1 – Wellington
8 – Lim’s Kosciusszko
14 – Resistencia
Race 7 – THE LONGINES HONG KONG MILE
1 – Golden Sixty
2 – California Spangle
4 – Schnell Meister
10 – Danon Scorpion
Race 8 – THE LONGINES HONG KONG CUP
2 -Romantic Warrior
1 – Panthalassa
3 – Jack D’Or
12 – Lei Papale
Race 10 – HIGHLAND REEL HANDICAP
10 – Beauty Live
4 – The Irishman
9 – Oriental Smoke
2 – Lucky With You
