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Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
New Year’s Day racing in Hong Kong. Hopefully, Tom and Rich can ring in the New Year with a bang of winners!
Sha Tin Racecourse Tips (Free Sha Tin Past Performances)
Race 7 – Cherry Handicap
Race 8 – The Chinese Club Challenge
Race 9 – Cotton Tree Handicap
Race 10 – Chinese Banyan Handicap
Race 11 – Flame Tree Handicap
Sha Tin Racecourse Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 7
10 – Power Koepp – Post 5
He’s run two good races recently, with a 2nd at 1000m and a 6th at 1200m.
In the 12/4 race, he had an issue about 700m out but did make progress.
In November, he won going this distance at Happy Valley but 1/2L beat 80-60 rated horses.
The step up in class and switch to Sha Tin has been ok overall.
Silvestre De Sousa returns to ride
2 – Trillion Win – Post 7
Going into his last race, he had 2 barrier trials at prep, but there was a 3-month gap between the race and the preps.
In that last race, he was taken back and waited until 300m to go and was steadied close to the finish line when another horse shifted into him.
The jockey was questioned in the race.
They will at a distance from the last race, 1000m to 1200m, as a few others in the race are doing.
Back of the backpack again to make one strong move.
He has one win from 4 starts second up with a placing too.
7 – Ping Hai Galaxy – Post 6
He is coming into this race off a win at 1000m over some of these horses by 1/2L.
Solid race sat 4th and as to go at 300m and move to the lead and did enough to hold off the runner-up.
His previous starts were at Happy Valley, with a 2nd going 1200m and a 4th and 3rd in the other races.
His win last out was the first at Sha Tin from 7 tries, but I won’t be surprised if he wins again going 1200m because he has won 3 times and placed four times from 21 starts.
His been going well in the past four starts.
Race 8
4 – Healthy Happy – Post 6
He appears to be the speed of the race but may have some company on the lead.
In November, he ran here going 1400m running a fair pace and pulled ahead at the top of the straight, and he didn’t finish fading to 6th with Beluga winning the race.
To prep for this race, he run 2 barrier trials at 1000m and 1200m, with a 2nd in the first one running at the front and winning the last won with an even-paced lead all the way.
He gets a fair pace for him and has won at course and distance; he will win vs this group.
If he gets pressure, then he could still be around at the end.
1 – Beauty Joy – Post 1
He tried group 1 company last out and ran a good fourth going 1600m vs California Spangle and Golden Sixty.
He led until the 300m left to go and gave up the lead to some pretty good horses.
A 7th in a group 2 race before at 2000m appears to not suit this horse in the distance.
It’s been a few races since he went 1400m but with a record of 5 starts 3 wins and 1 placing and 2 wins at Sha Tin, maybe this is his distance.
The group 3 company here is good, but he’s had a chance before at this level, and his group 3 record is 3 starts 2 wins 1 placing.
Right spot at the right distance. Watch out.
Post 1 isn’t ideal
5 – Blaze Warrior – Post 4
He comes in this race running an average barrier trial before winning his last race at the 105-80 level.
He’s tried group 3 company once before and failed to place.
Even with issues in the last race, he won.
In form and is capable at this distance to place vs this group.
Race 9
6 – California Concord – Post 3
Raced once lately with an even effort running 6th at this level.
The comment was “one pace”.
Since that race, he has 2 barrier trial races at 800m and won both with the time of :46.62 and :46.04. Ran one on pace with no cover and the started first and finished well.
Before that last race, he has 2 barrier trial and won both on them at 1200m
So, why pick?
Top trainer A S Cruz is using an apprentice for the ride and a 10lbs apprentice at that. Cruz has 11 runners going today.
Send him to the lead, don’t look back and try and hold on at the end is what I assume they are going to do.
Post 3 is a good place for this horse to start too.
5 – Beauty Eternal – Post 6
Like many in this field, a lightly races horse, 4yo with 2 starts 1 win 1 third.
Prepped for this race with a winning effort in a barrier trial moving from 3 to 4 to 1 with a wide move and won “comfortably”. This was on the AW.
Ran 3rd last out in race at 1200m at this class level, he didn’t have clear running in the last 100m after making good progress from 300m.
Won his first start at Sha Tin at 1200m by 2L at the 60-40 level.
He had a wide starting post in that race.
Fitness maybe an issue because he was scratched from a race because of lameness.
Zac Purton stays on and this could be your winner…
9 – Wonder Kit – Post 7
Ran 6th last out at this level after 3 very average barrier trials. The last start was the first in Hong Kong and he broke well, sat behind the speed and one pace finish.
Needed run.
Before coming to HK, he won at Gold Coast at 1200m by 1L in a class 1 level race.
Ok first effort, will have to show more to win here but a placing at a price is what I am looking for in this race.
Race 10
6 – Mark The Moment – Post 10
Ran 2nd last out, his first start in HK, with problems at the start.
When he did get clear at the 100m, he was caught by the winner.
Need a race and a quick time of 1:08.82
He used 4 barrier trials for prep for his first race in HK with 3 on the AW and the other a 1000m on the turf.
In the turf trial, the comment was he raced “greenly”.
In the last 12 months, he’s raced 3 times with 1 win and 1 placing.
Off the last race, I see improvement here.
5 – Metro Warrior – Post 2
Ran another 4th last out at 1000m in the lower-class race.
Used the rail most of the race until the straight and switched out but only went one pace at the end
He’s run 4 times since an early September barrier trial and ran 4th, 7th, 3rd, 6th, so he’s in the races but not finishing up
I think he will be more forwardly placed today as in most of his races if he doesn’t find some trouble again.
A good course record for running in the money vs. winning with 24 starts 2 wins and 11 placings
My concern in the class rise but with this field of horses, I really think he has a chance for a placing.
8 – Pleasant Endeavor – Post 14
This horse race at both HK tracks with some success but his record on 20 starts 4 wins 1 placing is reflected in his racing in both Australia and HK.
Because the course running is 4 starts 2 wins 1 placing
Ran 4th last out at Happy Valley, he sat behind the leaders and really didn’t have any pace to challenge the leaders.
He ran a good 2nd at Sha Tin going 1000m and was asked to go at 300m and just beaten by a neck.
His win in October was sitting farther back and moving very strongly at the end.
Moves up in class, a bit, and must overall the wide draw to have any chance here.
Race 11
2 – Straight Arron – Post 9
This is the first start in HK for this horse after racing at Randwick in 2 previous starts in group 3 races at 2000m and 1600m with a win in the 1600m and 3rd in the 2000m
Both barrier trials have been good with positive comments in both races.
Nice record of 4 starts 2 wins 2 placings and 2 runs at distance 1 win 1 placing.
Zac Purton has the mount
Generally, I like to see a start in HK before I bet but this one is hard to pass on with the record and the barrier trials being good.
6 – Red Lion – Post 7
After a barrier trial in early December, which he won, he ran a good 2nd at HV going 1200m with issues in the race.
After the race, the vets found a wound on the right front leg.
Lose by noise with issues is a gutsy performance
Next out, ran 8th again with issues with the jockey having to take back the at the beginning because of the wide draw and didn’t make much up in the straight.
Post 7 should help this horse with a clean trip should result in a good effort.
It’s also interesting to note that as a yearling he was purchased for $7k EURS, and 2 years later they paid $240k EURS for the horse.
3 – A Pal – Post 12
The last 3 races have been good efforts overall, 4th last out with a win and a second in the 2 races before.
This runner appears to want to be forwardly placed in races.
He had some issues being bumped in the last race and took the lead at 300m but was caught in the end.
Better timing, better results and is in good form right now.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 7 – Cherry Handicap
5 – Oriental Smoke
8 – Buzzinga
9 – Rock Ya Heart
1 – Winning Dreamer
Race 8 – The Chinese Club Challenge
1 – Beauty Joy
2 – Lucky Sweyness
6 – Fantastic Treasure
Race 9 – Cotton Tree Handicap
5 – Beauty Eternal
9 – Wonder Kit
3 – En Pointe
S1 – Lord Thunder
Race 10 – Chinese Banyan Handicap
6 – Mark the Moment
3 – Special M
8 – Pleasant Endeavor
1 – California Rad
Race 11 – Flame Tree Handicap
1 – The Best Peach
3 – A Pal
5 – Good Buddy
11 – Lucky Fun
