Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich try their Foreign Friday luck at Newbury for more of the British Championship Series.
Saturday
Race 1: Carnarvon Stakes
Race 2: Al Rayyan Stakes
Race 4: Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes
Race 5: Conditions Stakes
Race 6: Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes
Newbury Racecourse Picks and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s International Tips
Race 1 1:35
BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV
3 – Hierarchy
6 starts 2 wins 2 seconds 1 third
Ran in group 3 last out in 4 horse field, held his own but ran on for 2nd. The winner was Go Bears Go.
He won 2 novices’ races
Prepped for the Breeder’s Cup race with a 3rd at Newbury
Ran 6th in the BC race.
Sire was good sprinter, dam won at the handicap level
Improved off his last race, he wins
9 – Tiber Flow
4 starts 3 wins 1 second
All races on all-weather so far
Bred to be a sprinter, sire was a champion and dam was a group 3 winner
He shows up ready and he have a good chance here
My concern is does his all-weather form go on the turf too?
Sire was a champion sprinter, dam won a group 3 sprinting all turf runs
Favorite
6 – Rizg
2 starts 1 win 1 second
Steps up here to listed level after 2 races at the novices level
Last race, he didn’t keep a straight line and edged left, greenness
Sire was champion sprinter, dam only won a maiden race
Keep a straight run will help get a placing again
Race 2 2:10
Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f
5 – Outbox
26 starts 7 wins 5 seconds 4 thirds
Last out, he faced Yibir and went right to the lead in the group 2 race. He wasn’t good enough to hold off Living Legend or Yibir but made a good accounting of himself
Drop to group 3 level but only placed in group races, he has won at the listed level and below
Won in Dubai after 65 day layoff vs listed types but how good
Then last race with 69 days between, he may have needed that race
A measured ride and pace will result in a win
Should be the biggest price in the field
6 – Without A Fight
13 starts 5 wins 2 seconds 3 thirds
Last ran in group 1 in Dubai in the Sheema Classic and beat a few horses in the back of the field but never challenged and ran 12th
Better effort in Dubai the 2nd race back, running 2nd to Hukum in group 2 race
He finished the season last year with 2 wins in small field but on C2 he beat Living Legend.
This is his distance and run all top level with placings
That’s what I think will happen here
2 – Eshaada
5 starts 3 wins 1 second
The last race for her was Oct at Ascot just winning by a head over Albaflora in group 1 at 16-1 this was after 58 day layoff.
Her pervious layoff was 63 days and at York in group 1 vs Snowfall finish last by 37L, nice turn around.
Ran 2nd in group 2 at Royal Ascot and winner of 2 races before in Listed and Maiden
If she comes back to her pervious form, she’s the one to beat but we have seen the other side too.
Race 4 3:20
Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m
5 – Real World
12 starts 6 wins 1 second 2 thirds
2 winters in Dubai and they run him on the dirt, he doesn’t win
Last 2 races were the Dubai Cup and the Saudi Cup, toss both races
1 race on turf in Dubai, he wins
He’s 5 other races on the turf, he’s won. He is a turf horse
What he doesn’t have on the CV is a group 1 win on the turf, here maybe his best chance
His won his turf races on all types of going from very soft to good to firm
1 – Baaeed
6 starts 6 wins all races at 1 mile
The trainer moves this horse up the ranks from maiden in in Jun to novices to group 3 then 2 group 1’s
Along the way, he’s beating Palace Pier (top miler in Europe at the time), Order of Australia (BC winner at 1 mile), El Drama, etc…
First time off a layoff, so is he ready? Bettors think so now at 2/5
7 – Sunray Major
6 starts 3 wins
Tried group company last time at Ascot and ran 5th. He made the challenge with 2F to go but didn’t finish, needed the race.
He’s been mainly running and winning in the novice to handicap levels, last race a step up and the Gosden’s must think they have a good horse to try again
Longshot, price play and you get Frankie Dettori to ride
Race 5 3:55
BetVictor Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f
4 – Sierra Blanca
No starts
Ryan Moore/Aiden O’Brien
Sire top champion sprinter but
Dam produced 5 runners 4 winners and 3 stakes winners and at distance on from 1 mile to 1 ½+ miles, so they must know something to start this horse at 6F.
Dam took 4 races for her first win and it was at 1 mile
Why pick with 2 other horses in this that have already won, the combo trainer/jockey and placement in the race
Royal Ascot is the goal?
Race 6 4:30
Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f
1 – Bouquet
3 starts 1 win 1 third
Toss last, group 1 running 8th out of 9.
This is a Gosden horse and change of jockey to Frankie Dettori
She’s a novice and maiden running winning the novice race
Has this horse improved enough over the winner to be a factor here?
If wins, she will be running at Royal Ascot
5 – Mukaddamah
2 starts 1 win 1 second
Tried 1 plus in first start on the all-weather and looked good
Then run at Ascot on the good to firm running, ran 2nd and look good
Time to step up here and will be making the run at the end
3 – Flash Betty
20 starts (WOW) 3 wins 5 seconds 1 third
Toss last, awful in group 1 to Cachet who won the 1000 Gunineas, she went off at 200-1 and ran about that well
She ran 5th to Cachet in the race before…
Better all-weather for the wins?
Money with the drop but winning???? Drop helps.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: Carnarvon Stakes
3 – Hierarchy
9 – Tiber Flow
5 – Ribhi
2 – Ehraz
Race 2: Al Rayyan Stakes
2 – Eshaada
3 – Ilaraab
5 – Outbox
4 – Foxes Tales
Race 4: Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes
1 – Baaeed
5 – Real World
9 – Mother Earth
8 – Alcohol Free
Race 5: Conditions Stakes
2 – Persian Force
4 – Sierra Blanca
1 – Holguin
3 – Indian Renegade
Race 6: Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes
6 – Nashwa
1 – Bouquet
5 – Mukaddamah
3 – Flash Betty
