Horse Racing Picks, News and Opinions
Tom and Rich are in Newmarket Racecourse where the world’s racing “Headquarters” will host two of the British Classics this weekend.
Saturday
Race 2: My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap
Race 3: Suffolk Handicap
Race 5: 2000 Guineas Stakes
Sunday
Race 2: Betfair Daily Rewards Handicap
Race 4: Dahlia Stakes
Race 5: 1000 Guineas Stakes
Newmarket Racecourse Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s International Tips
Saturday:
Race 2 – My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap (Heritage Handicap) CL2 4yrs+ 6f
6 – Final Song
22 starts 3 wins 4 seconds 4 thirds
At distance 4 starts 1 third
She’s not done much lately, so why pick?
She’s drops here after facing group company in her last 3 races
First race of the early, in Dubai was an average run because she was off slowly and never was really in the race beaten 16L
Christophe Soumillon rides and has placed with her before and he will a hot rider 5 wins on Thursday at Longchamp and riding unbelievably this year, in past 14 days, his winning percentage in 48%.
A group 3 winner in Dubai
2 – Summerghand
63 starts 13 wins 10 seconds 6 thirds
All his wins are at 6F and only 1 races not at 6F
Horse for course? 8 starts at Newmarket 3 wins 4 seconds
1 race at Newmarket he didn’t place was a group 1 and the winner was Starman
Nothing in his last 6 races in either Dubai or England, beaten by too many lengths
So, I am looking for a price, some class relief and likes Newmarket
Big price?
16 – Above
18 starts 4 wins 4 seconds 3 thirds
11 starts at 6F with 2 wins 3 seconds 2 thirds
Better on AW than turf with 1 win & 4 placings from 9 starts
Beaten last out by group 1 winner on AW in C2 races, second start of the year
He was good as a 2-year-old but since his been only ok
But I am not looking for him to win and think he can beat the balance of the field for a placing
Race 3 – Betfair Daily Rewards Suffolk Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m1f
2 – Dhahabi
3 starts 1 win 1 second 1 third
Never ran this distance
Maiden winner but tried listed & group racing in other 2 races
4-year-old who’s last race were at 2 year old, Returns at 2 years off
Drops to C2 handicap in this race
To make him favorite here at his absent says he’s matured, injury free and ready to show us what he can do.
Yet another Godolphin owned and William Buick riding, Charlie Appleby trained
4 – Notre Belle Bete
11 starts 3 wins 3 seconds 1 third
1 run at distance, a winner on the AW
Raced 8 times before winning his first race on the AW at Lingfield and he’s now 3 for 3 on the AW
Tried the Lincoln at Doncaster on good to soft, ran 9th (of 22)
Ran with the near side group but not doing enough
I will give him a chance here because he has run in maiden to group races on the flat before with good results
6 – Forest Falcon
11 starts 3 wins 1 second 2 thirds
Won at distance and more suited for races over 1 mile
Ran 3rd on the AW last out, ran with the leaders, switch to the right and held his placing
I think a good first effort after layoff
He won his last 2 races before the layoff at 1 mile+
With race in hand, I like his chances for a placing here
Race 5 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m
5 – Dubawi Legend
4 starts 1 win 1 second 1 third
1 try at 1 mile, race in Breeder’s Cup 2 turn mile, straightaway at Newmarket
Only a novice winner at Doncaster at 7F but place in other 2 races before BC race
Raced too keen in the BC race, close up but didn’t finish, I have some question of him handling the turns
Sire was a good miler and less distance, undefeated at 2yr old. He’s produced many winner including Yibir.
Dam has 4 foals to race, all winners and 2 stakes winner all owned by Hugo Palmer
Straight mile here with draw 14, matured and working well at home for this try
10 – Native Trail
Undefeated in 6 starts
Won last out in group 3 at 1 mile easily over Claymore (he will be running next in France)
He has beaten many of these runners before and the closed race was here at Newmarket where he won by a head
Should be close in the running early and will be moving forward with 2F left
Sire was top class sprinter and has produced some good middle distance horse
Dam was unraced and this is her first foal
Godolphin owned trained by Charlie Appleby, William Buick to ride
Favorite
9 – Luxembourg
Undefeated in 3 tries all at 1 mile
Last race, he raced midpack, as to go, he did and always doing enough
Longer distances are possible in the future races – looking towards Irish Derby?
Sire won this race and the English and Irish derbies and produced many good distance runners
Dam has 4 foals to race all winners including 3 stakes winners all at distances over 1 mile.
Sunday
Race 2 – Betfair Daily Rewards Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f
1 – Red Verdon
53 starts 10 wins 11 seconds 5 thirds
At distance 5 starts 2 wins 1 second 1 third
2 races this year, placed in a handicap race then tried group 3 company and didn’t show much
Top weight in this race but the trainer is using one of the better apprentice rides in Harry Davies who gets a 7 lb allowance. I watch him win a race early in the week, excellently done ask the most out the horse and used the whip twice properly
Classy old guy at 9 and should make a good account of himself here
9 – Soapy Stevens
10 starts 2 wins 1 second 2 thirds
At distance, 3 starts 1 win
After layoff, a very average race at Musselbourgh in C2 losing by 7+L but needed start
He’s been racing with success at lower level (C5 to C3 races) and this is his 2nd run in C2
Lightly raced and wants long distance races over good to firm ground
This looks like a nice spot to get in the money here
2 – Revolver
10 starts 6 wins
At distance, 4 for 4
These stats look good, but the horse hasn’t raced in 17 months, last race in Sept 2020
He bounced around winning in lower level class handicaps then tried group 2 company before his layoff
Whatever the delays, he coming into this race off of many unknowns and odds at listed at 8-1
On his back races before, I am putting him in the race to run in the money but too many unknows, but stranger things have happened
Race 4 – Betfair Exchange Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m1f
4 – Ebalyra
13 starts 4 wins 3 seconds 4 thirds
At distance, she has no races but won at longer distances
Last out at Longchamp, she ran 3rd to group 1 winner as the favorite over very soft going
Race in Feb in Riyadh, another 3rd to top Japanese horse Authority who went wire to wire
Dec run was top company at Sha Tin group 1 running 3rd (again) to Glory Vase in 1 ¼ race
She’s one for the classy horse in the field and has group 3 wins but my concern, like others is the going, good to firm for her is not her usual running but if she handles it, she wins
Christophe Soumillon has the mount again and he’s been on her for most of her race. In the last 14 days, he’s riding percentage is 48% winners.
5 – Lilac Rose
10 starts 3 wins 2 seconds 1 third
At distance, she’s run 5 times with 2 wins and 1 third
She’s a listed winner but only placed in group races, a bit of step up here
She appears to prefer the good to firm going and beaten by 1/2L by Ville De Grace last out after a layoff and now another layoff going into group 2 race
She had issues in last start, steadied at the start, lack of room with 2F left and was clear at the end but only managed 2nd. She lost a shoe in the race.
7 – Ville De Grace
7 starts 3 wins 1 second 1 third
At distance, 2 runs 1 third
She’s 2 for 2 at longer races
Won last out in group 3 company last Oct and won before in September
Her races she wins is chasing the leaders and then moving forward with 2F to run
My concern with her is the going, she’s done her best running on good to soft and this race will be good to firm
Race 5 – Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) Cl1 (3yo) 1m
7 – Malavath
6 starts 3 wins 2 seconds 1 third
At distance 1 starts 1 second – BC races 2nd to Pizza Bianca
Winner of first start of the year over heavy going at Deauville beating Zellie by 1 1/2L
Ran midpack early moved up and lead with 1F to go and strong ride out for the win
She’s group 2 and 3 winner in France and grade 1 placed in US
Sire was top 2-year-old sprinter but produced good distance horses including Going Global
Dam, this is her first foal and she never won a race, she wasn’t even close beaten by a total of 97L in 4 races
Top France ride aboard with that 48% win record in the last 14 days
It’s a tough group but if she runs like she has, she wins
12 – Tuesday
2 starts 1 win 1 second
1 for 1 at the distance
Maiden race winner last out as the overwhelming favorite at 2/5
Maturity must of helped, she with the leaders at the 2L maker, was asked to move up and did with so asking, ridden with 1F to go and won comfortably
Aiden O’Brian trained with a change of riders to Frankie Dettori because Ryan Moore is riding the favorite in this race
I like the fact that she gone the distance and did it with style
Sire is Galileo and he’s produced many, many to horses and sire of sires
Dam produced 7 foals, 5 winners 3 stakes winners all her foals are by Galileo they include Minding, Empress Josephine and Kissed by Angels all winners at 1 mile
If the breeding holds, she’s a miler and this is her type of race
2 – Cachet
9 starts 2 wins 1 second 3 thirds
At distance, 3 starts 1 third – BC Cup race and group 1 & 3 races
Nice winner last out at Newmarket in group 3 at 7F, ran on the near side, had lead at 3F, push along at 2F and ridden out at the end, 1st start, look very good – good going
A bit of a Newmarket specialist, 5 starts 2 wins 1 second 2 thirds
Sire won in France, he was a miler
Dam never won but did run 2nd at 1 ¼ miles, 2 foals, this filly is the only winner
If her Newmarket form holds true, she good for an in the money finish
Rich’s Ranks
Saturday
Race 2: My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap
3 – Jumby
4 – Justanotherbottle
12 – Blackrod
Race 3: Suffolk Handicap
6 – Forest Falcon
2 – Dhahabi
8 – Turntable
9 – Fast Medicine
Race 5: 2000 Guineas Stakes
11 – Perfect Power
10 – Native Trail
9 – Luxembourg
4 – Coroebus
Sunday
Race 2: Betfair Daily Rewards Handicap
10 – Cemhaan
2 – Revolver
4 – Golden Flame
9 – Soapy Stevens
Race 4: Dahlia Stakes
5 – Lilac Road
3 – Dreamloper
4 – Ebaiyra
6 – Romantic Rival
Race 5: 1000 Guineas Stakes
13 – Wild Beauty
7 – Malavath
11 – Tenebrism
8 – Mise En Scene
