Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich go to Newmarket Racecourse for a trio of races and come home to Belmont Park for a couple of races with international flavor.
Saturday:
Newmarket Racetrack – free Newmarket Past Performances
Race 4: Superlative Stakes
Race 5: Bunbury Cup
Race 6: July Cup Stakes
Belmont Park
Race 7: Belmont Oaks
Race 9: Belmont Derby Invitational
Newmarket Racecourse Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s International Tips
Race 4 3:15
bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f
5 – Victory Dance – Draw 4
Won only race at Newmarket by a head at the big favorite
7F suits but bred to go longer, maybe 1 ½ miles
Favorite again
4 – Lion Of War – Draw 1
Won first 2 starts both at 7F. One was on the AW at Newcastle by 10L
He went wire to wire in that race.
The Leicester race, he sat midpack but going forward and winning by 2 1/4L
Also bred to go longer but proven good at this distance
1 – Dark Thirty – Draw 3
Won first start maiden at Newbury by a nose going wire to wire
Next start at Royal Ascot in listed race, he was towards the front but with 2F go, he really wasn’t making up any ground and just ran an even race
Jockey switch because he’s riding the #3 but using top French jockey Christian Soumillon is no downgrade
Race 5 3:50
bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f
17 – Samburu – Draw 7
4 starts 3 wins
Last out he faced Noble Truth at Royal Ascot in group 3 ran ok 6th
The 3 in a row wins were at maiden, novice and handicap C3 level
Going and distance suits
He gets a weight allowance because he’s a 3-year-old
11 – The Attorney – Draw 2
15 starts 3 wins 4 seconds 3 thirds
Places 2nd in last on the AW at Newcastle by 1L with a similar result at Goodwood on the turf
He’s one that’s sits midpack before going forward
This is his distance and has a good record on Good to Firm going
4 starts 1 win 2 seconds 1 third
3 – Jumpy – Draw 5
13 starts 4 wins 5 thirds
At Royal Ascot last out, he ran a good 3rd and look good but this was at 6F he had problems at the start
Steps up in distance today but his record at 7F is 3 starts 2 wins
Start out the season in group 3 company then dropped to C2 handicaps.
In the start 2nd start of the season, he went off the favorite and lost the race at the start, not a clean break- and made-up ground but no better than 6th.
One thing this season, he can get out of the starting gate cleanly
Race 6 4:25
Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f
12 – King Hermes – Draw 6
5 starts 2 wins 1 third
Last out was in Tokyo run in group 1 losing by 3L to one of Japan’s top 3-year-old running 6th at 1 mile
His start before was a better effort but again lost in group 2 running 3rd by 1L, also at 1 mile
A winner at 2 of a group 2 races at 7F
His only start at 6F was as a maiden and he won
Going is perfect with all his races because he’s only run on good to firm
3 – Creative Force – Draw 9
12 starts 6 wins 2 seconds
Ran an unlucky 2nd to stablemate Naval Crown by a short neck, he was on the stand side and the winner on the far side.
Toss Dubai run, not his day.
So, 2 starts, one terrific race and he could do it this time
He, like many in the field is a group 1 winner
13 – Perfect Power – Draw 8
9 starts 6 wins 1 third
Won first start of the year in group 3 at 7F
Then tried 1 mile in the Guineas and not good, he’s not at miler
Back to 6F and won like he has in the past, with ease
Now tries older horses and get weight off and is that fair?
Favorite
Belmont Park Picks and Analysis
Race 7
1m2f Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo Fillies) (Inner Turf) (3yo)
10 – Concert Hall
Ran 4th to maybe the one of the better filly/mare at the Curragh in La Petite Coco facing older horses for the first time.
Again 4th to Tuesday at Epsom in the Oaks
3rd to Homeless Songs in the Irish Guineas
She won her first start of the season in a listed race at Navan at 1 ¼ miles
The first 3 races were all group 1 races
9 – Agartha
Last win was as a 2-year-old in group 2 at the Curragh
Since then, she’s been 2nd 3 times in group 1 and 3 races and 4th & 5th in others but she’s running against a good group including some the same horses Concert Hall has faced
Again, it looks to me she will run second
5 – Consumer Spending
Can’t leave a Chad Brown horse off the picks in big races and I think this is his best 3-year-old filly turf horse
She won 2 in a row beating Pizza Bianco in one of those races
She really hasn’t run a bad race but she’s facing very good bunch here
No grade 1 wins, yet but it’s coming and maybe here?
Race 9
1m2f Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Inner Turf) (3yo)
10 – Nations Pride
Toss last, he ran an even 8th and never got into the race, the Epsom Derby but he may have not like Epsom
Before that, he 4 in a row at Lingfield (AW), Chelmsford AW), Dubai and the in a short field race at Newmarket by 7 widen lengths
That day, he beat the runner up in the Epsom Derby
He should like the turns on Belmont and Frankie Dettori will have to get him in position to have a chance
I think this was the “surprise” horse for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin because of the other top 3-year-olds they have
8 – Royal Patronage
Beat 37L in the Epson Derby, another one who didn’t like the track and maybe the distance
He ran second to the Derby winner in the race before at 10.5F
He’s won group 2 and 3 races at the distance of 7F and 8F
Keeping fine company but no wins this season.
He will be staying in the US after this race and being turned over to Graham Motion
9 – Tiz The Bomb
Toss the dirt races out, he has proven that he wins on turf and AW too.
Why the KY Derby, no clue especially with races like this coming up
He ran 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup to Modern Games by 1 1/2L
He’s beaten some of the better turf horses in various distance all over 1 mile.
Interesting choice of Dylan Davis to ride
Rich’s Ranks
Newmarket Racetrack
Race 4: Superlative Stakes
3 – Thomas Shelby
4 – Lion of War
5 – Victory Dance
Race 5: Bunbury Cup
3 – Jumby
10 – Montassib
17 – Samburu
20 – Lord Rapscallion
Race 6: July Cup Stakes
3 -Creative Force
13 – Perfect Power
11 – Flaming Rib
2 – Blackrod
Belmont Park
Race 7: Belmont Oaks
6 – New Year’s Eve
5 – Consumer Spending
10 – Concert Hall
4 – With the Moonlight
Race 9: Belmont Derby Invitational
10 – Nation’s Pride
3 – Napoleonic War
13 – Stone Age
9 – Tiz the Bomb
