Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich cover all seven races for Day 2 of the Royal Ascot!
Race 1 – Queen Mary Stakes
Race 2 – Queen’s Vase
Race 3 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes
Race 4 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes
Race 5 – Royal Hunt Cup
Race 6 – Windsor Castle Stakes
Race 7 – Kensington Palace Stakes
Free Royal Ascot Past Performances
Royal Ascot Horse Racing Tips and Analysis
22 to 1 Tom’s International Tips
2:30
Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 5f
11 – Manhattan Jungle – Draw 20
3 races 3 wins all in France and at 3 different tracks
The last race is the one that stuck out for me, 5F at Vichy on soft going she won vs 5 horse field by 1 3/4L going :57.01 on the straight course
All her races have been on the soft or very soft going, what can she do on good to firm going?
Sire was 5F specialist and the Dam won 1 race on the AW, this is her first foal.
Like the odds, hate the draw
12 – Maria Branwell – Draw 16
2 for 2 both at 5F on good and good to soft
Beat males in her last race a listed race at Sandown, what’s interest is she raced “green” in the final furlong but ran to the lead to win by a neck
Sire was good at 2 but not much after, horses at 2yr old are winning at a 38% clip
Dam was unraced and this is her foal to win out of 3 foals
17 – One More Olly
1 for 1 winning at Chelmsford on the AW, traveled well, sat behind the leaders, switched to the right, and went on with 1F to go, tough and doing enough. This was a class 2 race. Nice run for a 2yr old.
Sire won twice in sprints just 1 listed win. Ok producer with mixed bag of runners. Dam never won in 4 tries but she’s by a top-class sprinter Invincible Spirit and a 6F specialist.
3:05
Queen’s Vase (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 1m6f
10 – Emotion – Draw 4
Last out at Goodwood, she ran 5th beaten 13L but had to be steadied and switched right moved up to 2nd and then flattened out.
This was a listed race, so she drops here. She lost her novice race by a big margin (20L) winner was Emily Upjohn
Gosden’s and Cieren Fallon won on this horse before.
Big odds but lots of upside to this slow developing horse
7 – Nahanni – Draw 7
Comes back quickly after average run in the Epsom Derby running 7th.
This run was after 3 wins in a row in 2 novice races and the last before the derby, a listed race at 10F.
In his derby race, he dwelt at the start, slow into stride, pushed forward and when on with an even finish.
Get out of the gate cleanly will help his chances
William Buick back on board and won before on this horse
Favorite?
3 – Baltic Bird – Draw 11
Improving horse, lost big in first race but ran 3rd, missed next out by a neck running 2nd, won last out in maiden by 3L+
All these races were at distance of 11.5F and 12F
Sire is Frankel, enough said
Dam is a nice winner at distance and her other foal is a winner at distance
Frank Dettori and the Gosden’s combination is always completive
3:40
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2f
3 – Shahryar – Draw 3
Winner in Dubai in Sheema beating Yibir with a good inside run
Another Japanese horse who’s won on the international stage and appears ready to do it again.
Group 1 winner in Japan with a record of 7 starts 4 wins 2 thirds
There was some concern of the distance at 1 ¼ mile but he’s won at distance of 1 1/16 to 1 ½ so I don’t see this as a problem
The going is good to firm, it favors him
Cristian Demuro returns to ride again
Will he be at the Breeder’s Cup Turf this year?
4 – State of Rest – Draw 1
Both races this season have been group 1’s with a win at ParisLongchamp and a 3rd at the Curragh
His Curragh race, he was forward early, dropped back a little, went along the rail, swung out and then made a run, closing on the outside but no chance to win.
He won 3 in a row prior to the last race
2 – Lord North – Draw 5
An uneventful 4th last out in a grade 1 race at the Curragh. He didn’t have anything left at the end
Since win in Dubai in the Dubai turf, it was a DH win, came flying at the end
Used a AW race to prep for that race
Good runner and will be nearby at the end
4:20
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m
5 – Mother Earth – Draw 6
Faced open company at Newbury group 1 at 1 mile and Baaeed was in the race. She ran 7th. Ask to go at 2F and not much and no match for the winner.
For her first race of the season, she dropped to group3 company at the Curragh and won.
She mainly been running in group 1 company and the drop back to group 2 will make her the favorite here.
6 – Novemba – Draw 3
Raced at Baden-Baden last out in G2 and tracked the leader, made a move forward at with 2F to go and was held quickly than had even finish for 5th.
Ran 4th at Royal Ascot last year
Front runner
Group 2 winner get Sibylie Vogt to ride
1 – Saffron Beach – Draw 5
Ran 4th to Load North in Dubai last out after a 3-win streak in group races
Back to fillies & mares, she should be one of the favorites and depending what the Dubai trip took out of her, she should be very completive here
William Buick rides
5:00
Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m
4 – Intellogent – Draw 4
Transferred to current trainer after doing most of his running in France.
A 2nd in class 2 handicap and ran 3rd in a listed race at Ascot
The Ascot race was a field of 4 and the horses that finished in front of him are group winners
This 7-year-old has some back class, group 1 at 3 in Deauville and later was sent to run in the Arlington Million, ran 6th behind Bricks And Mortar
He ran well in 2020/21 with 7 starts 1 win 2 second 2 thirds
Slow away sometimes is a question mark?
Let’s see what can do in this big field handicap
2 – Escobar – Draw 5
Two races this season, a win in class 2 handicap at Yarmouth at 7F and then tried group 3 company in last, running 4th of 6 at Epsom
Last out was a good effort vs some good horses, he was moving well, switch right but could get to the top runners
I like his chances for a placing at good odds
26 – Totally Charming – Draw 17
I really like his last race at Epsom in a class 2 handicap he took the lead, horse came at him at the end and pushed again to win
He won the start before at Lingfield as the favorite at 1 mile.
Jockey switch to Frankie Dettori from William Buick
5:35
Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f
12 – Little Big Bear – Draw 2
Won last time out a Naas by 3L and could have been more
Got caught in his first race and lost by a head in the stride
Aiden O’Brien/Ryan Moore team up with this favorite who will continue to improve off last race, one to beat
Sire first crop 3 winners from 17 runners, dam never won and this is the first foal
17 – Selsmic Spirit – Draw 11
Lost in final stride at Churchill in 3 horse field, they went :57.1
Sire was group 1 winner and foals have run well on both AW and turf, dam won maiden at 7F over good to firm
The good to firm going will help him and will want the lead
21 – Jumbeau – Draw 3
Won first start in novice at Brighton easily and the went to York and ran 3rd to Pillow Talk but had problems, bumped soon after the start, race with the far side group, ask to go and switch out. The comment line was “did well in the circumstances”
This was a listed race for fillies
Back to open company better run and good placement early should help
Sire start in Australia and move to UK and ran twice, 1 at Royal Ascot (2nd), basically a sprinter at 6F. Dam won once on AW and this is her first foal.
6:10
Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m
2 – Angel Power – Draw 4
First 2 starts of the season were vs listed company, ran 3rd in both
Ran on the lead in last, winner blew by and she couldn’t hand on for 2nd, winner won by 12 1/2L
Winner of group2 in 2020 and only 3 races in 2021
I also think the drop in distance will help
Good play at 18-1 plus
16 – Spirit Of The Bay – Draw 6
Move up to class 2 last out and ran 2nd at Ascot over 1 mile, drifted around a bit in the race, when she finally got going, went 2nd nearing the finish and kept on.
Good overall record but at lower class level, improving 4-year-old must be considered here
William Cox rides with 3 lbs allowance
7 – Rosemary And Thyme – Draw 7
Hasn’t done much in a while and only has 1 win but she been racing in group and listed company and drops to class 2 today, granted it’s at Royal Ascot.
Toss first start of the season, she was bumped at the start and lost a shoe
Last race was average, raced in the rear, as to move forward at 3F, tried to go up the center, kept on but not getting to the leaders.
Why pick? She’s been too aggressively placed in race in the past, when at the right level, she done ok on both AW and turf. Her win is on AW.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – Queen Mary Stakes
10 LOVE REIGNS
12 MARIA BRANWELL
16 OMNIQUEEN
1 ALL THE TIME
13 MAYLANDSEA
20 THE PLATINUM QUEEN
Race 2 – Queen’s Vase
7 NAHANNI
3 BALTIC BIRD
6 HAFIT
11 PERFECT ALIBI
12 TYPEWRITER
2 ANCHORAGE
Race 3 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (BC Win and You are in Race)
3 SHAHRYAR
1 BAY BRIDGE
2 LORD NORTH
Race 4 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes
3 BASHKIROVA
1 SAFFRON BEACH
5 MOTHER EARTH
2 SIBILA SPAIN
6 NOVEMBA
8 THUNDER BEAUTY
Race 5 – Royal Hunt Cup
24 LEGEND OF DUBAI
26 TOTALLY CHARMING
27 DARK SHIFT
15 DESERT PEACE
9 ASTRO KING
32 FOREST FALCON
Race 6 – Windsor Castle Stakes
17 SEISMIC SPIRIT
12 LITTLE BIG BEAR
22 STAR OF LADY M
21 JUMBEAU
6 FAR SHOT
2 CHATEAU
Race 7 – Kensington Palace Stakes
4 FARHH TO SHY
11 FFION
13 STATE OCCASION
16 SPIRIT OF THE BAY
19 IMPROVISED
2 ANGEL POWER
