International Horse Racing Today – Royal Ascot – Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Horse Racing Picks and Analysis

Tom and Rich cover all seven races for Day 2 of the Royal Ascot!

Race 1 – Queen Mary Stakes
Race 2 – Queen’s Vase
Race 3 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes
Race 4 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes
Race 5 – Royal Hunt Cup
Race 6 – Windsor Castle Stakes
Race 7 – Kensington Palace Stakes

Free Royal Ascot Past Performances

Royal Ascot Horse Racing Tips and Analysis

22 to 1 Tom’s International Tips

2:30

Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 5f

11 – Manhattan Jungle – Draw 20

3 races 3 wins all in France and at 3 different tracks

The last race is the one that stuck out for me, 5F at Vichy on soft going she won vs 5 horse field by 1 3/4L going :57.01 on the straight course

All her races have been on the soft or very soft going, what can she do on good to firm going?

Sire was 5F specialist and the Dam won 1 race on the AW, this is her first foal.

Like the odds, hate the draw

12 – Maria Branwell – Draw 16

2 for 2 both at 5F on good and good to soft

Beat males in her last race a listed race at Sandown, what’s interest is she raced “green” in the final furlong but ran to the lead to win by a neck

Sire was good at 2 but not much after, horses at 2yr old are winning at a 38% clip

Dam was unraced and this is her foal to win out of 3 foals

17 – One More Olly

1 for 1 winning at Chelmsford on the AW, traveled well, sat behind the leaders, switched to the right, and went on with 1F to go, tough and doing enough. This was a class 2 race. Nice run for a 2yr old.

Sire won twice in sprints just 1 listed win. Ok producer with mixed bag of runners. Dam never won in 4 tries but she’s by a top-class sprinter Invincible Spirit and a 6F specialist.

 

3:05

Queen’s Vase (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 1m6f

10 – Emotion – Draw 4

Last out at Goodwood, she ran 5^th beaten 13L but had to be steadied and switched right moved up to 2^nd and then flattened out.

This was a listed race, so she drops here. She lost her novice race by a big margin (20L) winner was Emily Upjohn

Gosden’s and Cieren Fallon won on this horse before.

Big odds but lots of upside to this slow developing horse

7 – Nahanni – Draw 7

Comes back quickly after average run in the Epsom Derby running 7^th.

This run was after 3 wins in a row in 2 novice races and the last before the derby, a listed race at 10F.

In his derby race, he dwelt at the start, slow into stride, pushed forward and when on with an even finish.

Get out of the gate cleanly will help his chances

William Buick back on board and won before on this horse

Favorite?

3 – Baltic Bird – Draw 11

Improving horse, lost big in first race but ran 3^rd, missed next out by a neck running 2^nd, won last out in maiden by 3L+

All these races were at distance of 11.5F and 12F

Sire is Frankel, enough said

Dam is a nice winner at distance and her other foal is a winner at distance

Frank Dettori and the Gosden’s combination is always completive

 

3:40

Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2f

3 – Shahryar – Draw 3

Winner in Dubai in Sheema beating Yibir with a good inside run

Another Japanese horse who’s won on the international stage and appears ready to do it again.

Group 1 winner in Japan with a record of 7 starts 4 wins 2 thirds

There was some concern of the distance at 1 ¼ mile but he’s won at distance of 1 1/16 to 1 ½ so I don’t see this as a problem

The going is good to firm, it favors him

Cristian Demuro returns to ride again

Will he be at the Breeder’s Cup Turf this year?

4 – State of Rest – Draw 1

Both races this season have been group 1’s with a win at ParisLongchamp and a 3^rd at the Curragh

His Curragh race, he was forward early, dropped back a little, went along the rail, swung out and then made a run, closing on the outside but no chance to win.

He won 3 in a row prior to the last race

2 – Lord North – Draw 5

An uneventful 4^th last out in a grade 1 race at the Curragh. He didn’t have anything left at the end

Since win in Dubai in the Dubai turf, it was a DH win, came flying at the end

Used a AW race to prep for that race

Good runner and will be nearby at the end

 

4:20

Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m

5 – Mother Earth – Draw 6

Faced open company at Newbury group 1 at 1 mile and Baaeed was in the race. She ran 7^th. Ask to go at 2F and not much and no match for the winner.

For her first race of the season, she dropped to group3 company at the Curragh and won.

She mainly been running in group 1 company and the drop back to group 2 will make her the favorite here.

6 – Novemba – Draw 3

Raced at Baden-Baden last out in G2 and tracked the leader, made a move forward at with 2F to go and was held quickly than had even finish for 5^th.

Ran 4^th at Royal Ascot last year

Front runner

Group 2 winner get Sibylie Vogt to ride

1 – Saffron Beach – Draw 5

Ran 4^th to Load North in Dubai last out after a 3-win streak in group races

Back to fillies & mares, she should be one of the favorites and depending what the Dubai trip took out of her, she should be very completive here

William Buick rides

 

5:00

Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m

4 – Intellogent – Draw 4

Transferred to current trainer after doing most of his running in France.

A 2^nd in class 2 handicap and ran 3^rd in a listed race at Ascot

The Ascot race was a field of 4 and the horses that finished in front of him are group winners

This 7-year-old has some back class, group 1 at 3 in Deauville and later was sent to run in the Arlington Million, ran 6^th behind Bricks And Mortar

He ran well in 2020/21 with 7 starts 1 win 2 second 2 thirds

Slow away sometimes is a question mark?

Let’s see what can do in this big field handicap

2 – Escobar – Draw 5

Two races this season, a win in class 2 handicap at Yarmouth at 7F and then tried group 3 company in last, running 4^th of 6 at Epsom

Last out was a good effort vs some good horses, he was moving well, switch right but could get to the top runners

I like his chances for a placing at good odds

26 – Totally Charming – Draw 17

I really like his last race at Epsom in a class 2 handicap he took the lead, horse came at him at the end and pushed again to win

He won the start before at Lingfield as the favorite at 1 mile.

Jockey switch to Frankie Dettori from William Buick

 

5:35

Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f

12 – Little Big Bear – Draw 2

Won last time out a Naas by 3L and could have been more

Got caught in his first race and lost by a head in the stride

Aiden O’Brien/Ryan Moore team up with this favorite who will continue to improve off last race, one to beat

Sire first crop 3 winners from 17 runners, dam never won and this is the first foal

17 – Selsmic Spirit – Draw 11

Lost in final stride at Churchill in 3 horse field, they went :57.1

Sire was group 1 winner and foals have run well on both AW and turf, dam won maiden at 7F over good to firm

The good to firm going will help him and will want the lead

21 – Jumbeau – Draw 3

Won first start in novice at Brighton easily and the went to York and ran 3^rd to Pillow Talk but had problems, bumped soon after the start, race with the far side group, ask to go and switch out. The comment line was “did well in the circumstances”

This was a listed race for fillies

Back to open company better run and good placement early should help

Sire start in Australia and move to UK and ran twice, 1 at Royal Ascot (2^nd), basically a sprinter at 6F. Dam won once on AW and this is her first foal.

 

6:10

Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m

2 – Angel Power – Draw 4

First 2 starts of the season were vs listed company, ran 3^rd in both

Ran on the lead in last, winner blew by and she couldn’t hand on for 2^nd, winner won by 12 1/2L

Winner of group2 in 2020 and only 3 races in 2021

I also think the drop in distance will help

Good play at 18-1 plus

16 – Spirit Of The Bay – Draw 6

Move up to class 2 last out and ran 2^nd at Ascot over 1 mile, drifted around a bit in the race, when she finally got going, went 2^nd nearing the finish and kept on.

Good overall record but at lower class level, improving 4-year-old must be considered here

William Cox rides with 3 lbs allowance

7 – Rosemary And Thyme – Draw 7

Hasn’t done much in a while and only has 1 win but she been racing in group and listed company and drops to class 2 today, granted it’s at Royal Ascot.

Toss first start of the season, she was bumped at the start and lost a shoe

Last race was average, raced in the rear, as to move forward at 3F, tried to go up the center, kept on but not getting to the leaders.

Why pick? She’s been too aggressively placed in race in the past, when at the right level, she done ok on both AW and turf. Her win is on AW.

 

Rich’s Ranks

 

Race 1 – Queen Mary Stakes

10      LOVE REIGNS

12      MARIA BRANWELL

16      OMNIQUEEN

1        ALL THE TIME

13      MAYLANDSEA

20      THE PLATINUM QUEEN

 

Race 2 – Queen’s Vase

7        NAHANNI

3        BALTIC BIRD

6        HAFIT

11      PERFECT ALIBI

12      TYPEWRITER

2        ANCHORAGE

 

Race 3 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (BC Win and You are in Race)

3        SHAHRYAR

1        BAY BRIDGE

2        LORD NORTH

 

Race 4 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes

3        BASHKIROVA

1        SAFFRON BEACH

5        MOTHER EARTH

2        SIBILA SPAIN

6        NOVEMBA

8        THUNDER BEAUTY

 

Race 5 – Royal Hunt Cup

24      LEGEND OF DUBAI

26      TOTALLY CHARMING

27      DARK SHIFT

15      DESERT PEACE

9        ASTRO KING

32      FOREST FALCON

 

Race 6 – Windsor Castle Stakes

17      SEISMIC SPIRIT

12      LITTLE BIG BEAR

22      STAR OF LADY M

21      JUMBEAU

6        FAR SHOT

2        CHATEAU

 

Race 7 – Kensington Palace Stakes

4        FARHH TO SHY

11      FFION

13      STATE OCCASION

16      SPIRIT OF THE BAY

19      IMPROVISED

2        ANGEL POWER