Horse Racing Picks, News and Opinions
Tom and Rich head off to Champions Day at Sha Tin Racecourse in Hong Kong and make their picks.
Sha Tin Horse Racing Picks
Race 5 – Bullish Luck Handicap
Race 6 – Chairman’s Sprint Prize
Race 8 – Champions Mile
Race 9 – QEII Cup
Race 11 – Silent Witness Handicap
Hong Kong, Sha Tin Horse Racing Tips and Commentary – April 24th
22 to 1 Tom’s International Tips
Race 5 – Bullish Luck Handicap
4 – Turin Redsun
11 Starts 2 wins 2 placings
Won at distance 1 out of 5 tries
He’s won once off layoff – FU
He gets some class relief here, dropping from Hong Kong Derby and other top races but he’s earlier wins were at C3 level.
Ran 3rd in his barrier trial at 1200m but this appears to be too short of a distance having won at 1400m and 1600m
Has won in a year so why pick? He’s done ok against better company in last three races, running 4th, 2nd and 6th and these were all 14 horse fields
Good trip and some lucky, he will come from way back and make a wide run
Draw 8 will test him in the late running
5 – Beluga
17 starts 5 wins 8 seconds
Won and placed from 2 tries at this distance
He’s won 1 and 3 placings when FU from 4 starts, layoff not any issues
Won at this level
What’s not to like? Likes the distance, does well off layoffs and ran 2 good barrier trial as prep for this race.
He should run near the front and if in position at the turn, should finish well
Draw 10 is not great but has handled it before and will be to break near the front to have any chance late
1 – Beauty Joy
10 starts 6 wins 2 placings
3 runs at distance 1 win 1 placing
Won both of his barrier trial races as prep for this race
Won at this level and has won 2 from 3 FU tries
He appears to be versatility, run from way back or near the lead but best runs are near to the front
Favorite, should make a good account of himself with this group
Draw 3 is favorible
Race 6 – Chairman’s Sprint Prize
2 – Wellington
15 starts 9 wins 1 placing
11 starts 9 wins at distance
Won last 2 races group 1 & 2 sitting midpack and getting up in time, both were good trips
This is the classic horse of win or do nothing so I think he get 3rd in a row here
If ready to run again, he sits again midpack and does his best running late
Draw of 9 should hurt him.
3 – Lucky Patch
18 starts 7 wins 6 placings
10 starts at distance 5 wins 3 placings
He has won both his FU attempts after layoff
Last race, he was involved in a spill in Hong Kong Sprint and DNF
Break, healed and ran 2 good barrier trials – winning 1 and placing in the other, there is a 2 second difference in the race he won vs the 2nd run but what were they trying to get out of him at that point?
He’s last 2 wins were fast, 1:07+ for 1200m and returns to that form, he fast
Normally sits back and move on the turn to fan out for the run down to the wire
He will need some racing luck to overcome barrier 11.
6 – Sight Success
17 starts 7 wins 3 placings
14 starts at distance 6 wins 2 seconds
Jockey switch to Zac Purton – first ride
Good second to Wellington in his last start, group 2 sprint sitting close to the lead
He’s bounced around in types of race he’s run from class races to group races
He appears to be moving forward here and at a price with jockey change, a winner here but at least finish in top 3
Good draw, barrier 2
Race 8 – Champions Mile
1 – Golden Sixty
23 starts 20 wins 2 placings
At distance 10 starts 9 wins 1 placing
Won last time out sitting closed than normal to the leaders, move 3-4 wide and finished strong
This final time was one of his fastest mile at 1:32+
Ran 3rd in a 2000m race, maybe beyond what distance he is suited for, 1600m or less is best and top miler
When his unbeaten record was broken, the winner (who’s in this race) got the jump on him and he was too far back to catch the winner but ran :22+ final and that’s really fast
8 – California Spangle
9 starts 6 wins 3 placings
Has not won at this distance but did place in one attempt
Has been running in top company and does his best running from the front so barrier 5 is a good starting position
Zac Purton rode the horse that beat Golden Sixty a few races back but is riding this horse instead of Waikuku
If gets his way on the frontend, he will have plenty left to hold off other rivals but not Golden Sixty if he runs his race
7 – Excellent Proposal
19 starts 7 wins 3 placings
6 starts at 1600m and 2 wins 1 placing
Up and down type of horse run ok and then doesn’t run, he hasn’t won in 12 months and 2 placings from 7 starts
So why put him in here for a placing?
Well, 2U he has 5 starts 4 wins 1 placing
He’s has the services of one of the top jockey’s in HK
And I am not looking for the win, just get in the money for me
Race 9 – QEII Cup
8 – Romantic Warrior
7 starts 6 wins
1 for 1 at the distance
Winner last out by a whisker at 2000m in the HK Derby, sat 4th, was shuffled back to 7th and then moved forward to 3rd and go on to win. Good run
Barrier trial coming into this race was a good 2nd with inside draw at 1200m
He has won at distance from 1200m to 2000m and the trainer has been moving him up according starting at 1200m (won 3 at this distance) to 1400m to 1600m to 1800m and last race at 2000m
He’s faced, and beaten, horses that are running in this race and the other group 1 races on the card
Draw 6 is just fine
1 – Russian Emperor
18 starts 3 wins 7 placings
At distance, 2 wins 3 placings from 6 starts
Ran 1600m last out and beaten by Golden Sixty, settle back of the pack and was coming at the end, lost by 2L
Poor barrier trial before that race but in form because he won a group 1 at 2000m by 4+L running at the back and moving forward on the turn to run them down. That day, he beat Golden Sixty
He was purchased in UK after wins at Royal Ascot and other but is now just finding good form and ability.
Strong Favorite with a good draw 5
10 – Zebrowski
21 starts 5 wins 6 placings
Never won at distance with 3 tries but placed once
Why pick? Well, I had a tough time finding a 3rd horse so let’s see what this one can do.
Disappointing 6th last out but losing to Roman Emperor and Golden Sixty is, well happens
He won his 2 starts before at 1800m in group 3 races, close to the pace and moving at the end to win by a nose and 1.3L
Won his barrier trial prep for this race running at 1600m, so if the trainer trying to get more foundation in this horse?
Let’s see what he can do, draw 10 hurts
Race 11 – Silent Witness Handicap
3 – Blaze Warrior
10 starts 5 wins 2 placings
At distance 4 starts 3 wins 1 placing
FU he’s won and placed
Good effort last out winning a C2 race with big move flying at the end
He will be at the end, the closes to the pace he’s been was 7th and didn’t win
Barrier trial was average with 5th as prep
He’s tried better company and failed but the last 2 at C2 have been very good
Good draw help 2
4 – Codyceps Six
10 starts 5 wins 3 placings
At distance, he’s 1 for 1
Last 2 races were win at 1000m & 1200m (class rise last time out)
He’s was doing well in C3 races and was rated higher off the 2/3 win and was move up but won again
Won his barrier trial last out in a good time of :58
Going for 3 in a row, same type of group he faced last time so should make a good account of himself
7 – Keep You Warm
27 starts 3 wins 9 placings
Never won at this distance from 18 starts but placed 8 times
1 win over the last 12 months, but I am not looking at this horse to win
Last 4 races, he’s run 3rd. 2nd, 2nd, & 4th. All sitting midpack
Jockey change to Zac Purton who has won on this horse in the past
Will this change and better placing early in the race be the difference?
Should get ok odd of 8-1 or higher
Rich’s Ranks
Race 5 – Bullish Luck Handicap
2 – My Sugar
1 – Beauty Joy
8 – Soulmate
5 – Beluga
Race 6 – Chairman’s Sprint Prize
8 – Master Eight
2 – Wellington
6 – Slight Success
1 – Sky Field
Race 8 – Champions Mile
8 – California Spangle
1 – Golden Sixty
4 – Mighty Giant
3 – Waikuku
Race 9 – QEII Cup
8 – Romantic Warrior
6 – Reliable Team
10 – Zebrowski
1 – Russian Emperor
Race 11 – Silent Witness Handicap
11 – Lucky With You
3 – Blaze Warrior
2 – Trillion Win
5 – Winning Dreamer
