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Jerome Stakes Analysis on the Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby

By: Rich Bieglmeier follow me on X @HRTRich

A skinny field of five horses will run in the $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday, January 6, 2024. The race is the latest on the Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby with the winner earning 10 qualifying points, 5 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth and the last place horse in the third race will get a point.

The Profile of a Jerome Stakes Winner

Pilots or co-pilots have won six of the last 10 Jerome Stakes with a trio going wire to wire and another three racing second at the quarter mile marker. None of the last 10 champions were worse than fifth at the quarter pole.

Post Position didn’t play a role in the last 10 Jerome Stakes as horses have won from the inside, middle and outside.

Early to tactical speed has been the dominant bias.

Early Speed Analysis

According to our analysis of 1000 simulated 2024 Jerome Stakes races, this is the predicted percent chance of each horse having the lead at the quarter mile marker.

Winning Running Style

EL GRANDO wants the lead and is the most likely to have the lead. There isn’t a pure closer in this year’s version of the Jerome Stakes as all prefer to run middle forward. Two horses could be out of position, REGALO and DRUM ROLL PLEASE as both could find themselves in an uncomfortable position trailing the field at the first call.

However, DRUM ROLL PLEASE scores a C-ZONE of 90.52%, meaning this race’s projected pace most closely mirrors his winning effort. EL GRANDO, the potential pacesetter, is next with a C-ZONE reading of 37.83%. His confidence will likely grow the longer he is on the front.

Pace Analysis favors EL GRANDO and DRUM ROLL PLEASE

Form Analysis

The Jerome Stakes looks like a contentious race with four the five separated by a single point on our Total Pace scale. KHANATE appears to be about 2 lengths behind the pack (5 EP/LP Points roughly equals 1 length).

A bobble at the break or a wide trip could be the difference between earning 10 or 2 Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points.

Speed Figures

The Brisnet Par Speed figure for the conditions in 94. Once again, based on 1000 simulations, we find two horses have a strong chance of running at a speed figure equal to or greater than Par. EL GRANDE O has the best chance at 40.60% and DRUM ROLL PLEASE at 35.40%.

Speed Figure Stock Chart

High, Low, Average (red dot) relative to each other

Fair Odds

1000 simulations using our proprietary, secret formula and speed figures to date, we calculate our odds for the Jerome Stakes. The idea is to focus on the horse(s) with simulated odds that are lower than post time odds, That’s our definition of value.

Value Horse: EL GRANDE O

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Predicted Running Order

Post       Horse Name
4             EL GRANDE O
1             DRUM ROLL PLEASE
5             REGALO
3             SWEET SODDY J
2             KHANATE

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