Keeneland is fast and firm today with eight races on the card, and the deeper fields should give us plenty to work with as we hunt for value. We’re coming off a solid day at Parx, hitting 3 of 4 in Benny and the Bets, and today Rich and Terry turn their attention to Keeneland. We’ll put the Smart Sheets to work looking for pace advantages, vulnerable favorites, overlooked contenders and horses sitting on the right trip. Who controls the early pace? Who has the late speed to finish the job? And where do those deeper fields give us a chance to get paid at a price? Follow along, make your own calls and let us know what you see.
Every race tells a story. Smart Sheets help you read it.
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Rich’s Keeneland Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Inside 3 and 8+ best, 4-7 Discount
1 – MILITARY ROAD – SIM FAV – top SIM SP#, Tied Most Upside and drops
3 – FOUNTAIN RUN – the other with the most upside – better EP/Fracs and drops
5 – FAST SOLUTION – on the lead – popped in last and tends to pair/triple up big runs
8 – UNLOAD – tough call over the 2 – better odds – drops and PAR+>50%
$2 Exacta Key Box: 1/2,3,5,8
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Stalkers, Rail Best, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Discount
10 – QUEEN MCKINZIE – YES horse Longshot – TLRSP#+7 – Standout C ZONE and drops
12 – RED RAINBOW – the other YES horse – SIM FAV and Top SIM SP#
11 – ARMY MEDIC – Top TOTAL PACE +11 for the 11
3 – SNOW BUNNY – run back to her debut and she has a chance as a maybe
$2 Exacta Key Box: 10/3,8,11,12
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 44% w2w – Strong Inside Out
2 – SPRING DANCER – the inside speed horse
1 – JUSTINQUESO – 3SP# increases with TLRSP# +7 and can run any style
6 – STRONG STATE – biggest in race edge of +6 LS with the most upside
4 – SILENT LAW – tough call over the 3 – looks to have a little more pop
$2 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,4,6
Race 4: 1 1 /16 Miles – Early Speed, all good except 4-7
7 – THE FINAL SECRET – best 2nd race parability – 2 points better than
6 – JUMP SEAT – next best 2nd race parability as the ML favorite – Irad and Brad Cox
1 – SPECTACULAR SAM – YES horse trending in the right direction – biggest drop
9 – LOVE LINE – tough call over the 2 – been well bet in both and yet to get a clean trip
$2 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,2,6,9
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 44% w2w – Strong Inside Out
1 – ANNA BO BANNA – Top TOTAL PACE +12 with 2nd race Parability way past par
4 – LEXI’S CHARM – TLRSP# +3 – and drops from 200K NGSTK
6 – CARDIO CAT – could be part of the early story with most upside and Irad
2 – FOR THE WIN – tough call over others – SIM FAV
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,6/2,5,6/3,4,5/3,5,11
Race 6: 1 1 /16 Miles – Early Speed, all good except 4-7
2 – CLAIRITA – wide open race – should be better – maybe a lot in 2nd up
6 – UNION MIST – super consistent SIM FAV
5 – STRONG DESTINY – Biggest in race edge of +11 LS
4 – SO THERE SHE WAS – out on the lead as the only class dropper
Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Stalkers, Everything Good but 8+ Bad
3 – SHOULD’VE – TLRSP# +3 – big pop in only other 2nd up – most upside
4 – INSIGHTFUL MISS – Top SIM SP# as the top C ZONE
5 – SOCIAL BELLE – top closer with top TOTAL PACE and good C ZONE too
2 – SOMETHING STRONGER – tough call over the rest – but going with the inside draw
$2 Exacta Key Box: 3/2,4,5,13
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 44% w2w – Strong Inside Out
11 – EZ PAL – all noes – 2nd race Parability
3 – MAGNET – top Rated 1ster with a Back Bullet
5 – GOAL TO GO – 2nd race upside was the 93 cent fav in debut for Bob Baffert – works a tad slow for Bob
7 – JACK ATTACK – 2nd rated 1ster vs all noes
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,5,7,11
