Keeneland Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Keeneland on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mahoning Valley
Keeneland Pick and Plays
Charming Charles’ Choices
1. 4,7,1,3
2. 12,4,2,9
3. 3,4,6,2
4. 6,4,1,10
5. 8,3,7,2
6. 6,7,9,8
7. 11,8,9,4
8. 1,7,10,3
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 7 races – Stalkers – 2 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2-7 Best, 8+ Small Penalty
3 – EDGEE ANGEL – small drop in class with TLRSP#, 19f works since last race
4 – ABITIBI – first off the claim, winner two in a row, decent work, up in class
7 – APRIL’S NO FOOL – overlay with high c-zone score – been off since August, 4 decent prep works
5 – SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI – tough call over the 2, but facing tougher, drops and more consistent performer
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,7/3,4/2,3,4,5,7
Race 2: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2+ Close to fair w/ Slight Outside
Anything can happen
12 – HIBERNACLE – – got to take the Wesley Ward horses
9 – HAPPY BAYTOWN – 3 of last 4 works were bullets and fast
2 – UNHEARD – Last work of 46.2 Breezing from the gate is fast too
11 – HOLLYWOODBOULEVARD – tough call over the 4, maybe a hair faster and outside bias
4 – NEXT DOT
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,9,12/9,12/2,4,9,11,12
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 42% w2w – PP: 1-3 Under Par, 4+ Little Bonus Outside In
3 – AMARETTI – Chris P angle, just missing in debut with TLRSP#, been off since June, decent works
4 – THE PRINCESS SAYS – faster fractions in 2nd race, gets Irad
5 – KID’S LAST LAUGH – 1st up since last in late January, Last work was quick 4f in 47.4
6 – BLAME THE TOLL – speed at routes, cutting back in distance, doesn’t always translate to speed in sprints
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,5/3,4/3,4,5,6,7
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 42% w2w – PP: 1-3 Under Par, 4+ Little Bonus Outside In
5 – HEADLINE REPORT – debut was on fast, won, followed by two Stakes races on good, then AW back to dirt
1 – DON’T WAIT UP – big drop, Irad, MSW 100k winner, decent works
6 – HEARTBREAKER – top 5 yo vs 3 and 4 yo – lots of long workouts preparing for first race since June 17
10 – KEEN HEIR – ran his best race last out and lone bullet work since, maybe getting it
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 5: 1,5/3,8,12/5,6/8,11,12/1
Race 5: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – Bias: 2 Races both won by speed, but neither w2w
3 – JARREAU – been off since September, OK runs fresh, Irad and Maker hit at 38%
12 – POLICY OPTION – absolutely will be rolling late, distance 2/0-1-1
8 – DRIPPING GOLD – likely better in his second start after a layoff, Top Turf Numbers
11 – EXPLOSIVE – better through the first half mile, AW is better than turf
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,8,12/3,12/2,3,8,11,12
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 21% 2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Best, 4+ Almost Fair
6 – MONEY RUN – strong EP/LP edge, peak SP# as BTN fav, switch to Irad, but every previous peak # was followed by major regression
5 – CAPTAIN JACK – maybe didn’t like AW in debut, much, much better in second start on dirt, 10 pound weight break
8 – COUNTERSPY – Z Pattern, strong LP gains last out, maybe better in 3rd after a layoff
9 – FIGHT FIERCELY – sim overlay and strong c-zone, cutting back in distance might help
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,6/5,6,8/5,6,7,8,9
Race 7: 1 1/16 Turf – Bias: 9 Races – 2 w2w – Inside 3 Bias, 4+ Under Par
11 – FLIRTING BRIDGE – really close to winning 3 of 4 since coming from Ireland where she was running in group races
12 – LADY PUCHI – won the last rime she ran at this level, on Keeneland Turf, been off since late November but works getting ready are good
8 – SISTER LOU ANN – Irad and Saffie Joseph Jr winners 6/12, EP with 2nd Lasix, Saffie hits 48/151 second Lasix
9 – BLISSFUL – won 2 of 3 at the distance/surface – 20f works since last race on Feb 16
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 8,11,12/11,12/7,8,9,11,12
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 7 races – Stalkers – 2 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2-7 Best, 8+ Small Penalty
1 – CARAMEL CHIP – been upping his speed number race to race, TLRSP# and been exploding late
7 – TWO WORLDS – better times last out at 1m70y vs 1 mile, concerned about the track rise
10 – HIGH HEATER – consistent performer this is a good distance for him, 4/2-0-1
3 – IMPROBABLE STORY – 4sp# increases, better late in his last, upgrade on an off track
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,7/1,7,10/1,3,7,9,10
