Keenland
8 races at Keeneland today with six on a fast dirt track and two scheduled for the good turf.

There are four maiden races on the card, so we’ll have plenty of lightly raced horses, potential improvement and unknowns to work through.

Rich and Terry are coming off another workmanlike day at Parx, with both having more than half of yesterday’s winners as their top choice. Nothing flashy — just another day of putting ourselves around the winner’s circle.

Today we’ll work through all eight Keeneland races looking at pace, SIM Speed # advantages, potential value, vulnerable favorites and those maiden runners who might be ready to take a step forward.

And we’ll keep an eye out for any SIM Speed Monsters lurking on the card.

Download Today’s Smart Sheet: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/BEL_20261021_e58585_HRT.pdf

Smart Sheets Explanations: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HRTSmartSheetsExplanations.pdf

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Race 1

6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount

Terry’s Picks

3 – Pop and Locke: Top last-race speed rating; drops in class; trainer wins 21% first-time maiden claiming; blinkers added; strong jockey stats.

8 – Night Knight: May improve returning to dirt and sprinting; drops in class; trainer wins 28% first-time maiden claiming.

6 – Mandalay: Drops in class today; has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% taking a horse from Maiden to Maiden Claiming.

Longshot:

7 – Midnight Burst: Showed early speed: Well bet in debut; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternates:

9 – Flanker

4 – Nickyb

Rich’s Picks

4 – NICKYB – no YESes – Top Rated 1ster timer with a BGO

3 – POP AND LOCKE – 2nd race upside

9 – FLANKER – Tied for 2nd rated 1ster

5 – GHOST WISH – The other tied for 2nd rated 1ster

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$2 Exacta Key Box: 4/3,5,8,9

Race 2

1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, None 8+

Terry’s Picks

5 – Miami Frank: Finished in the money in 4 out of the last 5 races, winning 1; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

6 – East Village: Won last race at Churchill Downs; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

4 – Mr Randy: Ran 2nd vs tougher (on AW) in last race; Switches to a high % jockey; Drops in class today; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

7 – First of His Name: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

Alternates:

9 – Fort Campbell

2 – Jinxzi

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 4,5,6/1,3,4,5,6,7/3,7/2,3,4 – Cost $54.00

Rich’s Picks

5 – MIAMI FRANK – SIM Speed #+10 – most upside and Top TOTAL PACE +9

6 – EAST VILLAGE – could be the pacesetter – 3SP# increases

4 – MR RANDY – ranks well in all the Smart Stats and get Jose in 2nd up

7 – FIRST OF HIS NAME – the other YES horse with the 5 and plenty of upside

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 5/2,4,5,7,9/2,3,7/2,3,4,6,10

Race 3 – Female

6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, All Winners 2-7 in 5 Races

Terry’s Picks

5 – Fair Practice: Runner-up as favorite last out; trainer wins 27% with beaten favorites; fastest dirt speed in the field; high-percentage jockey.

6 – Go Missy Go: Finished 3rd in only start; has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% in 2nd career race.

7 – Lakeville Love: First time starter whose Sire wins 18% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

4 – Livvo: First-time starter; dam is 1-for-1; sprint-suited breeding; high-percentage trainer and jockey; bullet 4F workout (Oct. 15).

Alternates:

3 – La Noche Negra: Finished in the money in 2 out of 4 career starts; Drops in class today;

1 – Sheza Go Getter

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$10.00 Win: 5

$1.00 Exacta Box: 3,4,5,6,7

Cost: $30.00

Rich’s Picks

7 – LAKEVILLE LOVE – Tied for Top Rated 1ster with Jose

4 – LIVVO – tied for the Top 1ster

2 – MIDNIGHT SAGE – longshot – 3rd rated 1ster with a back bullet

9 – JACKIE AND GINGER – 4th rated 1ster with a back bullet

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$2 Exacta Key Box: 7/2,4,5,9

Race 4

7 Furlongs – Early Speed, Outside In

Terry’s Picks

3 – Proprietary Trade: Won 2 races in a row going for hat trick; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Money Run: Throw out the last race because of snow but won the previous 2 races; Drops in class today; Top trainer and jockey win rate.

9 – Five o’ Somewhere: Won last race at Churchill Downs; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Top trainer and jockey win rate.

Longshot:

2 – Two Seven: Finished in the money in 7 out of 10 career starts, winning 7 races; Drops in class today.

Alternates:

5 – Cool Cowboy

4 – Saltwater Cowboy

Rich’s Picks

3 – PROPRIETARY TRADE – could be on the pace – consistent – 50/50 first up

2 – TWO SEVEN O – going back to dirt helps fast 3/2-1

7 – MONEY RUN – most upside – top TOTAL PACE – but 0/3 at Keeneland

9 – FIVE O’ SOMEWHERE – SIM FAV and dangerous on the lead – where he could be

Race 5

1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, None 8+

Terry’s Picks

3 – Majestic Valor: Well-bred first-time starter; dam is 1-for-1 with a stakes winner; high-percentage trainer and jockey; solid 5F workout (Oct. 15).

4 – Social Deception: Runner-up as the favorite against tougher turf company last out; drops in class; trainer wins 21% with beaten favorites; high-percentage jockey.

2 – Jackpot Rocket: Third vs. similar last out; top last-race and dirt speed figures; trainer wins 20% first time routing.

Longshot:

6 – Solar Horizon: May improve while trying Dirt; high-percentage winning trainer wins 31% of 2nd route race; Top jockey win rate.

Alternates:

7 – Justification

9 – Objectivity

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,6,7/6,7,8/4,11/2,9,10,11,15 – Cost $75.00

Rich’s Picks

4 – SOCIAL DECEPTION – going back to dirt work YES horse – horse he lost to on grass last out came back to win 120k allowance

2 – JACKPOT ROCKET – YES horse and any improvement from last would be hard to beat

3 – MAJESTIC VALOR – Top Rated 1ster with very good works

10 – TOWER HILL – 2nd Rated 1ster with just as good works – post is a drag

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,6,10/4,6,7/3,4,7,11/10

Race 6 – Female

5 ½ Furlong Turf – Closers, Inside 3, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Discounted Heavily in 7 Races

Terry’s Picks

7 – Saturday Flirt: Wins 38% on turf; third last out; high-percentage trainer and jockey; solid 4F workout (Oct. 13).

8 – Lovely Emma: May improve returning to turf; drops in class; trainer wins 18% on turf; Irad Ortiz rides; bullet 3F workout (Oct. 15).

6 – Big Trouble: Drops in class today; trainer wins 21% with beaten favorites; high-percentage jockey.

Longshot:

4- Le Amazonia: Loves being the bridesmaid finishing in 2nd In 5 races out of 10 starts on the turf; Highest speed figure at today’s distance.

Alternate:

2 – Do Gooder

Rich’s Picks

7 – SATURDAY FLIRT – has the most upside in the race – winner 2/3 on Keeneland turf

6 – BIG TROUBLE – most LS and super consistent – solid enough first up

4 – LE AMAZONIA – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE best chance to go w2w

8 – LOVELY EMMA – Irad and could bump in 2nd up

Race 7

1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, None 8+

Terry’s Picks

11 – Bourbon Flight: In the money in seven straight, with four wins; runner-up against tougher turf company last out; drops in class; high-percentage trainer and jockey.

4 – Pagode: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

5 – Wonder Mist: Finished in the money in 6 out of 7career starts, winning 2 races; Drops in class today; Top trainer and jockey win rate.

Longshot:

8 – Rugged Love: Won last out at Churchill at today’s distance; top trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

3 – Freddie B

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$20.00 Win: 11

$10.00 Exacta Box: 4/11

$5.00 Exacta: 11/4,5,8

Cost: $55.00

Rich’s Picks

4 – PAGODE – TLRSP#+3 and biggest in race edge of +7 LS with moth upside

3 – FREDDIE B – other YES horse with the 4 – fell off some in last race – wide trip

11 – BOURBON FLIGHT – strong C ZONE – not so strong post – fires 1st up – Jose

7 – FIND NO FAULT – top TOTAL PACE Longshot

Race 8 – Female

1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers, 2/6 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Fair

Terry’s Picks

10 – Follow Your Heart: 2nd as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 47% with beaten favorites; Top trainer and jockey win rate.

2 – Majorbrowniepoints; Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

11 – Waterman’s Song: First time starter; Strong trainer and jockey and the combo in last 14 days (6 2-0-0).

Longshot:

9 – Golden Cause: Drops in class today; longer distance can help; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternates:

15 – Cyber Gal

3 – Ataya

Rich’s Picks

10 – FOLLOW YOUR HEART – 2nd Race Parability close to Graded Stakes level stuff – horse she finished 2nd behind won a Grade III in next outing

3 – ATAYA – bomb with 2nd Race Parability

2 – MAJORBROWNIEPOINTS – Yes Horse wide rally on 2nd career outing

15 – CYBER GAL – best chance to break par – improving by the race

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$5 Exacta Key Box: 10/2,3,11,15