Keeneland hosts a competitive 9-race card today on a fast dirt track and firm turf course, featuring a mix of developing runners, experienced allowance horses, and high-level contenders. This full-card breakdown uses Smart Sheets to identify the strongest opportunities based on pace dynamics, positional advantage, and data-driven indicators that consistently produce winners. Today’s analysis focuses on: Horses most likely to be forward at the quarter mile Total Pace and C-Zone advantages Simulated odds compared to the morning line Profile of a Winner indicators by surface and distance With a variety of race types on the card, from lightly raced horses to seasoned competitors, the emphasis is on identifying where each race will be won based on structure, not just surface-level form. This is a data-driven approach designed to uncover both logical contenders and overlooked value across the entire Keeneland card. Drop your Best Bet below before first post — let’s keep the streak alive. 🏇💰
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Terry’s Picks
Keenland – 4-09-26
Race 1
5 – Skara Brae – First time starter whose; Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Bullet 3F workout (Apr-02).
2 – Crossfire – First time starter; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 3F workout (Apr-01).
6 – Fire Baron – First time starter whose; Dam has 8 winners from 13 starters and 1 stakes winner; Has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Uncle With Money – First time starter who; Has a high % winning jockey; Bullet 3F workout (Mar-28).
Alternate:
7 – Zee R One
Race 2-Female
11 – Click – Drops in class today; Can improve while returning to Dirt; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
5 – Sharing Wisdom – Has a high % winning trainer wins 20% of the 1st Time Maiden Claiming starts; Has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Safe Space – First time starter whose; Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Sea Zest – Has an early foot so the Shorter distance can help; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
9 – Hylla
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5,3,11/6,7/2,3,5,6/1,5,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
7 – Flame Dancer – Ran 2nd in last race as the favorite but has high % winning trainer wins 33% of the races when bringing beaten favorite back; Jockey has high win rates.
6 – Danzig’s Dora – Has won her last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
8 – Sweet Scorecard – Won last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Ma Rae’s Girl – High % winning trainer wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from AW to Dirt; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Bullet 3F workout (Apr-03).
Alternate:
3 – Mom’s Cheesecake
Race 4-Female
5 – Trust Account – Won last race at Gulfstream; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
3 – Amberglen – Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey- Lasix added; Bullet 4F workout (Mar-28).
6 – South Philly Slide – Finished in the money 5 races of 7 career starts, winning the last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Backgammon – Is one for one at Keenland; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – White Smoke
9 – Luster
Race 5
1 – Maginnesontap: Finished 2nd as favorite last race. Trainer wins 24% with beaten favorites. Jockey has strong win rates. Good 5F workout (Apr-02).
8 – Royal Crescent – Closer who finished 2nd missing by a nose at 1-mile extending to a 1-1/16 Mile; Trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
5 – Hickman Creek –Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey; Blinkers off.
Longshot:
2 – Fourth Dimension – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Spartacus
Race 6-Female
6 – Three to G – Appears to either lead or come from off the pace to win; trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
4 – East Jabip: Debut winner; high-percentage trainer and jockey; solid 5F workout (Mar-27).
1 – May Gray: Won last race; Highest last race speed rating; Rail post is winning at a 25% clip; Breeding suggests she will like the grass.
Longshot:
10 – Soloist: Beaten only 1-1/4 lengths vs tougher in last start; Drops in class today.
Alternate:
5 – Rhythm Lady
$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5,6,10/2,3/2,9/1,2,5,9,12 – Cost $50.00
Race 7
3 – Majestical: Drops in class and should be competitive; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
2 – Market Chill – Won last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Go to Girl – Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
Longshot:
4 – Honor Azteca – Finished 2nd in last race, winning the previous race.
Alternate:
1 – Call Me Precious
Race 8
9 – McRavin – Won 3 races out of 4 career starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Risk Tolerance – Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Mountain Bear – Finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 5 starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Reagan’s Wit – Finished in the money in 4 races out of 7 career starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Simulate
Bet: $20.00 Win: 9 – $10.00 Exacta Box:2/9 – $10.00 Exacta: 9/2,6,8 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 2,8,9
Race 9-Female
12 – Merry Madison: Was third as the favorite last out; 33%-win rate for trainer with beaten favorites. Drops in class today; jockey has strong win rates.
9 – Haleakala – Finished in the money 5 races of 8 career starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Formaggio: Rail post is winning at a 19% clip; Early speed running style helps chances; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Onmywaytosavthday: Drops in class today; High %winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Mustang Lady
Best Bet of the Day at Keenland – 8th Race – #9 – McRavin
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 4 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Fair
2 – CROSSFIRE – Only with a Bullet work – Top Rated 1strer
5 – SKARA BRAE – 2nd rated firster – Wesley Ward – 1/5 again?
6 – MR. FETE – 3rd rated 1ster
4 – UNCLE WITH MONEY – fast 3f works – suggest 4th rated 1ser will come put hot
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Rail Strong, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Strong
2 – SAFE SPACE – only 1ster vs all noes and few far maybes – and all are moving up in class
13 – DODECAHEDRON – better EP/FRACTIONS – could be pacesetter – solid C ZONE
11 – CLICK -SIM FAV, SIM SPEED# FAV and Top TOTAL PACE – one of the maybes
5 – SHARING WISDOM – the other maybe and 2nd up after a dog race
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,5,11,13/7,8/3,6,7,9/1,4,8
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,11,13
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Strong, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
7 – FLAME DANCER – steady performer in the 3rd up – Rivelli horse should be fast
8 – SWEET SCORECARD – SIM FAV – TLRSP#+8 back in Jan – wins big or fades in 1st ups
3 – MOM’S CHEESECAKE – biggest in race edge +8 LS and plenty want to get out
6 – DANZIG’S DORA – undefeated in 2 on dirt and both at the distance – Jose Ortiz and tr Eddie Kenneally won 4 of 4 together
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 2/12 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
3 – AMBERGLEN – Brad Cox and Prat – drops from a NGSTK – workouts off the chart with 1st Lasix
9 – LUSTER – been off since August – won debut with ease – strong works prepping for return
7 – MOTHER GREEN – on the pace as top C ZONE
6 – SOUTH PHILLY SLIDE – SIM FAV at a Price – killer turf breeding too
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/5,6,7,9
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
1 – MAGINNESONTAP – crazy C ZONE vs the rest – strong rail – why not
8 – ROYAL CRESCENT – just missed in hos last and will be rolling late
4 – SPARTACUS – was bet to 8/5 in GP debut – 2nd race upside – some solid works
3 – BEARISTER – 3rd race bonce back type at a big price
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,4,8
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 2/12 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
1 – MAY GRAY – big SIM FAV – Pacesetter – Top Total Pace +9 – 3rd race upside – TLRSP#+5
4 – EAST JABIP – w2w in debut – Irad rides again and 2nd race upside
10 – SOLOIST – drops from a Grace 3 – 1st Lasix and some powerful works
6 – THREE TO G – been versatile – almost won debut on lead and then closed to win in 2nd
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,10/3,5/2,5,9/2,5,6,9,12
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
5 – GO TO GIRL – only YES horse with +6 SIM Speed number edge – some fast works
3 – MAJESTICAL – better EP/FRACTIONS and drops from the G2 Rachel Alexandra
2 – MARKET CHILL – Top TOTAL PACE +7 – 3 SP# Increases
1 – CALL ME PRECIOUS – strong rail – tough call over the 6 – but grades out a little better
$12 Win: 5
Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Closers, 2/11 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fairish, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
2 – RISK TOLERANCE – TLRSP# +3 – some good works since and fires off the bench
9 – MCRAVIN – just ¾ a length from being undefeated in 4 races – 2nd up pop the only other time
5 – CLEVER AGAIN – SIM FAV – been off since September –has hit 100 speed figure – Irad
6 – REAGAN’S WIT – Jose over a bunch of other contenders – some SIM odds value
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,6,9
Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Rail Strong, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Strong
12 – MERRY MADISON – TLRSP#+6 – SIM SPEED # and Top C ZONE
9 – HALEAKALA – better fractions last out and drops – pacesetter?
6 – RHAENYS – SIM FAV and potential big value play
2 – ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY – very consistent and will be closing
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,6,9,12
