Keeneland presents a competitive card today with several races featuring heavy morning line favorites, making it critical to separate true contenders from potential traps. This “Real vs Fake Favorites” breakdown uses Smart Sheets to identify which favorites are legitimate—and which may be vulnerable based on race structure and data-driven indicators. Today’s analysis focuses on: Horses most likely to be forward at the quarter mile Pace control and probability to lead Total Pace and C-Zone advantages Simulated odds compared to the morning line Profile of a Winner indicators by surface, distance, and race type Special attention is given to evaluating chalk favorites and determining whether they have the positional and statistical profile to win—or if they are overvalued based on public perception. This is a data-driven approach designed to identify where favorites can be trusted, where they can be beaten, and where value opportunities may exist across the Keeneland card.
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Terry’s Picks
Keenland – 4-16-26
Race 1-Female
1 – Emirates Affair – Ran 2nd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance ñ Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
6 – Coastline Hottie – Placed in the last four starts, including one win; Has the highest speed rating from the previous race.
3 – Devil of Paradis – Has won 3 races out of the last 6 starts: Good 4F workout (Apr-07).
Longshot:
5 – So Far So Good – Ran 2nd in last race as the favorite but has high % winning trainer wins 36% of the races when bringing beaten favorite back; Jockey has high win rates.
Alternate:
4 – Sunset Harbour
2 – Ask Amanda
Race 2
8 – Paper Run – First time starter whose Sire wins 19% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
12 – Castle Pines – First time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters; Has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Grandes Suenos – First time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 7 starters; Has a high % winning jockey; Several good workouts.
Longshot:
10 – Trim Castle – First time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Mr Gerso
$.50 Pick 4: 5,8,10,12/3,5,7,8,9,12/3/1,4,5,7– Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
8 – Headspin – Closed to finished to 1-/4 lengths from 1st at 5F and now stretches out to 5-1/2F; Trainer and jockey has high win rates.
5 – Aurora Sky – Finished 2nd in last race; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
3 – Lucy McGee – Finished in the money in 4 races out of the last 6 starts; Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
12 – One Happy Island – Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race; Return to Turf will help.
Alternate:
7 – Conquering Marin
9 – Llamp
Race 4
3 – Shangrala Road: Finished poorly as favorite last race but has a high % winning trainer wins 33% with beaten favorites. Jockey has strong win rates.
1 – White Whale – Rail post is winning at a 28% clip; Trainer and jockey have strong win percentages; Good 5F workout (Apr-09).
4 – Mo Work – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey and the combo in last 14 days (3 3-0-0).
Longshot:
7 – Attersee – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Bite and Strike
Race 5
5 – Just a Touch: Finished in the money in 8 races out of the last 10 starts, winning 2 races; Breeding suggests he will like the grass. Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
7 – Big to Do – Won last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% in Allowance races and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Maycocks Bay – Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Miranda Rights – Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when taking a horse from AW to Turf; Bullet 5F workout (Apr-04).
Alternate:
2 – In a Jam
Race 6-Female
7 – Clairita– Finished 2nd stumbling at the start as favorite last race but has a high % winning trainer wins 34% with beaten favorites. Jockey has strong win rates.
4 – Metfardeh: Finished in the money in 4 races out of the 5 career starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Ivory and Ebony: Finished in the money in 7 races out of the last 8 starts, winning 1 race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
1 – Union Mist: Finished third last out; shares top dirt speed today; Nice 5F workout on Apr-04.
Alternate:
5 – Quinn’s Promise
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,7/6,7,8,9/5,8/1,5,8,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
6 – Coiled: Finished 3rd (on AW) in last race; Will improve while returning to Turf; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
8 – Chapman’s Peak – Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; This combo in last 14 days (7 3-1-2).
9 – Concord Green – Won last race at today’s distance; Trainer and jockey have strong win %.
Longshot:
7 – Faber – Drops in class today; trainer and jockey have strong win rates.
Alternate:
2 – Carcano
Race 8
5 – Clooney – Won last two races at Santa Antia; Drops off win; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Awesome Ruta – Has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Trusty Rusty: Finished 2nd last time; returns to dirt; solid 4F workout (Apr-04).
Longshot:
4 – American Law – Finished in the money in 6 races out of the last 8 starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Goes the Clown
7 – Evening News
Bet: $20.00 Win: 5 – $10.00 Exacta Box:5/8 – $10.00 Exacta: 5/1,4,8 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,5,8
Race 9
5 – Anglophile – Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Sand Pipes – Drops in class; trainer and jockey have high win rates; Good 5F workout (Apr-09).
1 – Event Detail – improve while returning to Turf; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Noises Off – Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Smokey Mandate
Best Bet of the Day at Keenland – 8th Race – #5 – Clooney
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
6 – COASTLINE HOTTIE – going to take 2 shots to beat the 3/5 – Top TOTAL PACE + 10
3 – DEVIL OF PARADIS – going to be on the lead with standout C ZONE
1 – EMIRATES AFFAIR – most back class 3/5 ML with Irad
4 – SUNSET HARBOUR – tough call over all the rest but more upside
$1 Double: 3,6/3,4,7,8,10,12
Race 2: 4 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Fair
8 – PAPER RUN – Top Rated 1ster
7 – SING FOR MO MONEY – 2nd rated
10 – TRIM CASTLE – 3rd rated
4 – SUPER SAIYAJIN – 2nd Race Parability
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,7,8,10/3,6,7,8/3,4,8/1,5
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Stalkers, 33% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Struggle, 4-7 Best, 8+ Fair
8 – HEADSPIN – 2nd race Parability that’s borderline Stakes level
6 – RED BEACH – top rated 1ster versus all noes and a few maybes
7 – CONQUERING MARIN – Irad on a Irish horse with the strong turf breeding
3 – LUCY MCGEE – one of the maybe horses that doesn’t need much improvement
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Closers, 0 w2w – PP: Inside Out – But 8+ a Little better than 4-7
3 – SHANGRALA ROAD – best race of career was lone at Keeneland – Irad
4 – MO WORK- some really solid Keen works prepping
8 – FRACTURE – moving nicely up the speed ladder as SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE but track riser
6 – BITE AND STRIKE – only YES horse in the race – no choice but to have him
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 17% w2w – PP: Huge Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
1 – MAYCOCKS BAY TLRSP# + 5 on the big rail bonus – some really good works between
5 – JUST A TOUCH – heavy SIM FAV drops for a G1 and ran in the KD
10 – CALIFORNIA BURRITO – standout C ZONE type with excellent works too
6 – STARS AND STRIDES – tough call over a few others – but more upside potential
$5 Exacta Key Box: 1/5,6,9,10
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fairish, 8+ Discount
7 – CLAIRITA – TLRSP#+6 and still could have more – big LP edge of 2 lengths
3 – IVORY AND EBONY – on the front end as the SIM FAV – win came when involved early
4 – METFARDEH – moving up the speed ladder and only 2nd time going 2nd up
2 – ORAIA – a little flyer here – big Alpha for tr Willima Cowans 2nd up 32% vs 17 overall
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,7/2,6,7,8/4,5,7,8/4,7,10
Race 7: 1 ½ Miles Turf – no Data
8 – CHAPMAN’S PEAK – really long race but C ZONE says he should really like it
7 – FABER – drops from a G2 after running the TLRSP# + 5
6 – COILED – SIM FAV that was better ATB in last – some late speed power
2 – CARCANO – has not gone this far yet – but I think the extra distance works
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fairish, 8+ Discount
5 – CLOONEY – biggest class dropper – and runs hot 1st up – do wonder about those west coast speed #s though
8 – AWESOME RUTA – can pop or drop in 2nd up – pop means potential easy win
4 – AMERICAN LAW – ITM 7/9 at the distance and I think Tyler G won everything yesterday
7 – EVENING NEWS – TLRSP#+ 4 – resume says 2nd up will look like the 1st up
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, 17% w2w – PP: Huge Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
10 – SAND PIPES – only w/ better EP and FRACTIONS and drops from a G3 – TP +13
4 – FLYING MOHAWK – SIM FAV with strong C ZONE – has run well 1st up
7 – TIZTASTIC – AoN type that that ran in the KD – catches 1st Lasix
1 – EVENT DETAIL – got to use the big rail edge on a horse that pops 1st up
$5 Exacta Key Box: 10/1,4,5,7
