Keeneland features an 8-race card this Humpday with recent results showing longshots hitting at a higher rate than expected. With competitive fields and several races lacking clear standouts, today’s card presents opportunities to identify the right price horses using a data-driven approach. This full-card analysis uses Smart Sheets to uncover value by focusing on: Horses projected to be forward at the quarter mile Pace scenarios that could create upset potential Total Pace and C-Zone advantages Simulated odds compared to the morning line Profile of a Winner indicators based on Keeneland trends With multiple races offering wide-open dynamics, the emphasis is on separating true contenders from overbet favorites and identifying runners that may be overlooked by the public but fit today’s race shape. This is a data-driven breakdown designed to highlight where value may exist and how races are most likely to unfold across today’s Keeneland card.
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Terry’s Picks
Keenland – 4-22-26
Race 1
2 – Get Her Number – Won last race 3 races in a row; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Bullet 4F workout (Apr-15).
5 – Air of Defiance: Ran 2nd in last race; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
3 – Big Gain – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good4F workout (Apr-10).
Longshot:
6 – Ahumado – Finished 3rd (on AW) in last race; Return to Dirt can help.
Alternate:
1 – Tiverton
4 – Extravagant Prince
Race 2-Female
5 – Sanchoo – First time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 4 winners from 5 starters and 1 stakes winner; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in Debut MdnSpWt events; Bullet 3F workout (Apr-12).
10 – Express Success – First time starter; Sire wins 17% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 2 stakes winners; High % winning trainer and jockey; Good 3F workout (Apr-11).
8 – Baytown Sassy – First time starter; Has a high %winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Sharpie Girl – Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; High % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Apr-15).
Alternate:
8 – Lumberjill
$.50 Pick 4: 3,5,8,10/3,5,7/5,10/1,3,6,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
7 – Socialbutterflytam– Finished in the money in the last 6 starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Don’t Say It – Won last race at Turfway Park; Highest last race speed rating; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
5 – Commanded – Drops in class today; Has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from AW to Dirt; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Protomagic – Finished in the money in 3 races out of 4 starts, winning 1 race; Drops in class today.
Alternate:
6 – Right Now
2 – Daring Hope
Race 4
10 – Relative Value: Finished in the money in 2 career races, winning 1 start; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Operation Overlord– Ran 2nd in last race at today’s distance; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
6 – Hall Monitor – Finished 3rd in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Jockey have high win rates.
Longshot:
8 – Lazlo – Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Apr-11).
Alternate:
3 – Warlander
Race 5
1 – Editor – Ran 2nd in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Big Boy Thunder – Ran 2nd (on AW) in last race; Has a trainer who wins 17% of Dirt starts; Jockey have high win rates.
3 – Nanosecond – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Jack Charles – First time starter; Has a trainer who wins 33% of dirt starts.
Alternate:
7 – Rare Eclipse
5 – Join
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6,7,10/4,8/3,6/2,6,8,10,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 6-Female
4 – Big Trouble – Finished in the money in 8 races out of the last 10 starts, winning 2 races; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
8 – Pandora’s Gift – Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
1 – Lovely Emma: Won last race at Fairgrounds; Jockey has high win rates.
Longshot:
7 – Paynt Ya Later – Ran 2nd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Jockey has high win rates.
Alternate:
3 – Coco Abarrio
2 – Me Governor
Race 7-Female
6 – Evanescence – Finished in the money in 8 races out of 8 career starts, winning 3 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Lynn’s Milky Way – Finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 3 starts, winning 2 races; Drops in class today; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
5 – Beyond Belief: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Jockey has high win rates; Bullet 4F workout (Apr-13).
Longshot:
1 – Shotgun Wedding – Finished in the money in 8 races out of the last 9 starts, winning 2 races; Drops in class today; Trainer and Jockey has high win rates.
Alternate:
2 – Roswell
Bet: $20.00 Win: 6 – $10.00 Exacta Box:3/6 – $10.00 Exacta: 6/1,3,5 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 3,5,6
Race 8
10 – Gold Sovereign – Finished in the money in 2 races out of 3 turf starts; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Nyquistador – Finished in the money in the last 3 starts; Has a high % winning jockey.
12 – Bull Shoals – Ran 2nd vs similar in only start.
Longshot:
6 – Mortal Lock – Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Protect and Defend
4 – Go for Rocket
Best Bet of the Day at Keenland – 7th Race – #6 – Evanescence
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Stalkers, 0w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Fair
2 – GET HER NUMBER – Tops the list on the most of the key Smart Sheets categories
5 – AIR OF DEFIANCE – wire to wire fire – on the lead and top C ZONE
3 – BIG GAIN – last of the YES horses and biggest class dropper
1 – TIVERTON – tough call over the rest – so we’ll take the rail edge in the third up
Race 2: 4 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 3/4 w2w – PP: 1 from 2/3 and the rest 4-7
3 – SHARPIE GIRL – bullet and Go – the rest are in order
10 – EXPRESS SUCCESS – Jose has won 5/10 with Asmussen
5 – SANCHOO – most expensive and you know Ward and Irad will take $$$$
4 – MESDEMON – 4th rated 1ster
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,10/3,7/2,5,8,10/1,8,10
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, 1/7 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Bonus, Rest Fairish
3 – DON’T SAY IT – most upside and highest average SPEED number
7 – SOCIALBUTTERFLYTAM – could pop 3rd up – but track riser
8 – PROTOMAGIC – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE – consistent but 0/2 at Keen
6 – RIGHT NOW – standout C ZONE and pops in 1st ups
Race 4: 1 ½ Miles Turf – Closers, 1/22 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Same as Rail Bonus, 8+ Discount
8 – LAZLO – SIM FAV with best PAR+, most upside and drops
5 – OPERATION OVERLORD – just missed at this distance last out and only win with Irad riding – like today
10 – RELATIVE VALUE – Brown and Prat – 3rd race bounce back – post hurts
2 – ENGLISH LAW – should be happy to get back on grass with 6 straight quality starts
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,8,10
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 2/6 w2w – PP: Inside 3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ None
10 – JACK CHARLES – 3.0 1st timer vs noes and 2 maybes with excellent Keen back bullet works – debuts as a 4 yo for Ward – won’t be 6-1
1 – EDITOR – TLRSP# +13 – better 5 ways with Irad
8 – J DAVID – if he runs back to his Keeneland debut – big price but appears to like the track – the other 4 yo – the rest are 3
6 – BIG BOY THUNDER – out on the lead in the 3rd up give him a chance
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,8,10/3,4,7/3,6/2,3,8,10,12
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Early Speed, 1/7 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Small Discount
4 – BIG TROUBLE – Top TOTAL PACE with better EP/FRACTIONS – ITM 7/8 in short sprints
3 – COCO ABARRIO – overlay with better early fractions – extra ½ furlong today helps
7 – PAYNT YA LATER – TLRSP# +7 and SIM FAV – strong C ZONE and competes early
8 – PANDORA’S GIFT – definitely in versus better in Graded Stakes – 1st Lasix could help, but looks like an AW horse until he proves in on grass 7/0-1-0 – have to discount at low odds
$5 Exacta Box: 4/3,5,7,8
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, 1/7 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Bonus, Rest Fairish
6 – EVANESCENCE – could get a perfect setup as most of the rest want to go fast – Top C ZONE – EZ work in lone Keen race
3 – LYNN’S MILKY WAY – out front – fires and fades in 1st ups – has won ¾ with Irad riding – and drops from a Grade III
5 – BEYOND BELIEF – super consistent – also dropping from a GIII with great works prepping
1 – SHOTGUN WEDDING – longest shot in a 5 horse race – better EP/FRACTIONS
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – 2 Races, both Closers in posts 4-7
12 – BULL SHOALS – 2nd Race Parability – some strong works between and the extra distance helps
2 – NYQUISTADOR – Yes Horse got to have him – consistent with upside
10 – GOLD SOVEREIGN – Prat and Brown – the other YES horse and any of his 3 on Turf probably wins
8 – PROTECT AND DEFEND – missed PAR by just 1 point – solid enough works
$5 Exacta Key Box: 12/2,3,8,10
