Keeneland delivers more “Maiden Mayhem” today with a card featuring multiple maiden races, including first-time starters and lightly raced horses where traditional form can be unreliable. These races often produce unpredictable results, making it critical to focus on race structure, pace dynamics, and hidden indicators. This full-card breakdown uses Smart Sheets to identify potential winners by analyzing: Horses most likely to be forward at the quarter mile Pace scenarios and probability to lead Total Pace and C-Zone advantages Simulated odds compared to the morning line Profile of a Winner indicators for maiden races With limited data on many runners, the focus shifts to identifying positional advantages and underlying signals that can separate true contenders from the rest of the field. These types of races often present value opportunities for those willing to dig deeper beyond surface-level analysis. This is a data-driven approach designed to highlight how races are most likely to unfold—and where value may exist—on a challenging Keeneland card.
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Terry’s Picks
Keenland – 4-23-26
Race 1
6 – Gethsemane – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
4 – Jeter – Won last race by 10-lengths at Gulfstream; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Politics – Trainer and jockey have high win rates; Can go the distance.
Longshot:
2 – So Special – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Colt Forty Seven
1 – Spirit of a Walkon
Race 2
3 – Through the Years – First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% Debut MdnSpWt; Has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Joe Joe Dude – Breeding suggests he will like the grass; Well bet in debut; Has a high % winning trainer; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
2 – Tolstoy – Debut runner bred for sprinting; rides with a top-winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Wartime – Breeding suggests he will like the grass; Bullet 3F workout (Apr-16); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Automatic Press
9 – Randie’s Rascal
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,8/1,4,6,8/1,8,9/2,5 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
6 – Alta Avenue – Has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of Sprints; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Likes the distance.
8 – Gracie’s Delight – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the Claiming races; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
4 – Mya Papaya – Won last race by 10-lengths at Gulfstream; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Final Shipman – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Turkish Pistachio
3 – Evolution
Race 4
8 – Kokomo Joe – Chance to improve while trying dirt; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 38% of the races when going from AW to Dirt.
9 – Gentleman Jim – Has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races when going from Route to Sprint; Has a high % winning Jockey.
1 – Ghost Driver – First time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 5 starters; Rail post is winning at a18% clip; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Itchy – Finished in the money in 3 races out of the 4 career starts; Finished 4th as favorite last race but has a trainer wins 33% with beaten favorites.
Alternate:
3 – Seventy Six
Race 5
2 – Talbingo: Finished in the money in 6 races out of the 7 career starts, winning 4 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Bullet 5F workout (Apr-17).
5 – Ejtimaa – Finished in the money in 8 races out of the last 10 starts, winning 4 races; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
8 – Soleil Volant – Drops in class today; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Clyde’s Got a Gun – Finished in the money in both starts at Keenland; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Daunt
1 – Versus
Bet: $20.00 Win: 2 – $10.00 Exacta Box:2/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 2/4,5,8 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 2,5,8
Race 6-Female
7 – Ruby Regent – Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in only start; has a high % winning trainer wins 19% of the Maiden Sp Wt. races; Jockey has strong win rates.
2 – Immortalize: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in last 14 days (14 8-1-1); Lasix added.
1 – Mashallah: First time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 9 winners from 11 starters and 2 stakes winners; Good4F workout (Apr-17)
Longshot:
6 – Cold Spell: First time starter whose; 17% Sire wins with 1st time Starters;Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% Debut MdnSpWt.
Alternate:
9 – In Scope
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,6,7/4,5,6/2,10/2,5,6,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 7-Female
6 – Tricky Kitty: Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Ontario: Finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 4 starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Etawa: Finished third last out; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Longshot:
9 – Jerseys Parade: Won last race at Turfway Park.
Alternate:
1 – Southampton Dock
Race 8-Female
2 – Aegis – Finished in the money in 4 races out of the 4 career starts; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Jockey has strong win rates.
10 – Poise: First time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner; Trainer and jockey have high win rates.
1 – Beach Mandy: First time starter whose Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Bullet 4F workout (Apr-16).
Longshot:
3 – Haunting Echoes: Finished in the money in all 5 career races, finishing 2nd as favorite last race but has a high % winning trainer wins 21% with beaten favorites.
Alternate:
7 – Toocoolforschool
Race 9-Female
6 – American Debutante – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters. Trainer and jockey has strong win rates.
5 – Whitethorn: Finished in the money in all 4 career races, finishing 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Mary Lois: Runner-up last time; top trainer/jockey combo; now on Lasix.
Longshot:
8 – Raconteuse: Ran 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race as favorite last race but has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% with beaten favorites; Can improve while returning to Turf.
Alternate:
11 – Peachy Canyon
Best Bet of the Day at Keenland – 5th Race – #2 – Talbingo
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
6 – GETHSEMANE – only class dropper and 2 lengths TOTAL PACE
4 – JETER – TLRSP#+7 and great chance to go wire to wire
3 – COLT FORTY SEVEN – standout C ZONE – signs of life in last
5 – POLITICS – should be coming at the end and was better ATB
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Early Speed, 1/7 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Small Discount
8 – WARTIME – Top Rated 1ster by a little over the – but much better odds
3 – THROUGH THE YEARS – Ward and Rosario – probably 3/5 odds or lower
2 – TOLSTOY – bullet and go
4 – AUTOMATIC PRESS – 4th rated and #4 – that has to be some sort of code
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,8/3,6,8/1,2,8,9/2,5
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, 1/7 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Bonus, Rest Fairish
8 – GRACIE’S DELIGHT – Ward horse that should be involved early – strong work – odd drop
6 – ALTA AVENUE – SIM FAV – strong PAR+ and drops with Irad
3 – EVOLUTION – if any are going w2w – this is it – and gets 1st Lasix
7 – FERMI – Top TOTAL PACE – best race was lone trip on fast dirt
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Stalkers, 0w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Fair
8 – KOKOMO JOE – was well be in debut – solid works since for 2nd race upside
2 – ITCHY – Top TOTAL PACE and SIM SPEED at a big price and only with better fractions
9 – GENTLEMAN JIM – out on the lead in the 3rd up – cut back in distance helps
1 – GHOST DRIVER – Top Rated 1ster vs all noes on the strong rail
Race 5: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – 3 Races, all Closers in posts 3-7
2 – TALBINGO – just a little racing luck from winning 6/7 races – bullet work between starts
5 – EJTIMAA – consistent as can be – upgrades to Irad and will be closing
4 – CLYDE’S GOT A GUN – hit the board in both Keen turf races – last would be a winner
8 – SOLEIL VOLANT – definitely been facing stronger fields – off since Nov – 1st up is the ?
$3 Turf Pick 3: 2,4,5 – R7: 4,5,6 – R9: 5,11
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 2/7 w2w – PP: Inside 3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ None
7 – RUBY REGENT – 2nd race upside borderline stakes level
6 – COLD SPELL – 3.0 firster with a back bullet – Ward horse
1 – MASHALLAH – low 1ster score – but Back and Bullet and Go works on the rail -$1.2M
9 – IN SCOPE – 2.99 firster with a back bullet
Race 7: 1 ½ Miles Turf – Closers, 1/23 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Same as Rail Bonus, 8+ Discount
6 – TRICKY KITTY – 1 of 2 YES horses with by far best PAR+ and best Average SP#
5 – ONTARIO – top closer and getting all that extra distance today could help
4 – ETAWA – best turf breeding by a bit – needs a better start today in 2nd US run after coming from Ireland – should like getting back on grass after AW in last
2 – CLASSIC APPEAL – probably won’t happen – but if any is going w2w – +5 EP and Top C ZONE for the SIM FAV
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 2/7 w2w – PP: Inside 3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ None
1 – BEACH MANDY – top Rated 1ster with Keeneland Bullet and Go
2 – AEGIS – going to take a ton of $$ with Irad after just missing in last with TLRSP#+ 7
10 – POISE – 2nd rated 1ster with Jose and Asmussen winners 4/9 together
6 – MIKA’S WAY – going to be overlooked IMO – but don’t overlook the workouts
Race 9: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – 3 Races, all Closers in posts 3-7
11 – PEACHY CANYON – huge late push – +20 LS and Top TOTAL PACE +6 and TLRSP#+5
5 – WHITETHORN – Irad and Pletcher 100% ITM on 6 starts – winning 2
1 – MISS PHARAOH – Longshot YES horse – runs well fresh and strongest PAR+
6 – AMERICAN DEBUTANTE – killer turf breeding and best race by far in lone Jose mount
$5 Exacta Key Box: 11/1,3,5,6
