Keenland Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Keenland Picks
Terry’s Picks
Keenland – 10 -08-25
Race 1
6 – Scottish Storm – He won last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Handsome Pants: Trained by a high-percentage winner, with a 22%-win rate switching from turf to dirt. The horse also has a successful jockey and should show improvement back on dirt.
1 – Cool Andy – Won last race; Rail post is winning at a 20% clip and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Palagio – He won last race; He has a high % winning trainer who horse wins 66% in the 2nd race off a layoff, has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Good Bali
Race 2–Female
8 – Northern Voyage – She drops in class today. Both her trainer and jockey have strong win rates. Has a good 4F workout (Oct-03)
7 – Didn’t It Rain – Drops in class today; early runner suited by shorter distance; has the top dirt speed in this field and a good 4F workout (Sep-26).
1 – Purple and Gold – Rail post is winning at a 19% clip; May improve while returning to dirt; drops in class today; Early speed running style helps chances.
Longshot:
3 – Bit of Frost – Drops in class today, Can improve while returning to dirt and she has a good 4F workout (Oct-01).
Alternate:
5 – Volatile Nite
9 – Real Nice Surprise
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,5,7,8/3,7/7,12/1,5,7,8,9– Cost $50.00
Race 3
7 – Bettera – He has finished in the money in his last 6 races, winning the last start and both trainer and jockey have high win rates.
3 – Laughnowcrylater – Runner-up as favorite last out; top jockey and best speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Overstatement – Finished 3rd in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Look to the Cross – He won last race, has a high % winning trainer who won 22% of the races when taking a horse from the turf to dirt and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Batter Up
8 – Ultimate Strike
Race 4
7 – Tingus Pingus – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race. Trained by a high-percentage winning trainer and ridden by a high-percentage winning jockey.
12 – Psalmist – He and has a high % winning trainer who won 28% of the races in a horse’s 2nd career race and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Gray Is Okay – He drops in class today, with a trainer who wins 23% with horses moving from maiden to maiden claiming races and a high-percentage jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Caprio – The rail post is winning at 20% clip and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – C. P. A. Jim
Race 5
1 – Eye Witness – Rail post is winning 20% of races; returning to dirt with early speed and a shorter distance, which favors a successful trainer and jockey.
8 – Eastside Cool – He has finished in the money in his last 3 races and he a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Trident Hit – Drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Castle Island – Drops in class today; Early speed running style helps chances and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Manfredi
$.50 Pick 4: 1,5,7,8,9/3,7/1,2,3,5,6/5,7 – Cost $50.00
Race 6
7 – Founders – He won last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Blast Furnace – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race as favorite but has a high % winning trainer; top jockey and best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Gold Sovereign – Third against tougher last race; drops in class today. Shares top turf speed; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Longshot:
10 – Kicking Clear – Drops in class today; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Alternate:
6 – Abbi Fede
9 – Crystal Hill
Bet: $20.00 Win: 7 – $10.00 Exacta Box:3/7 – $10.00 Exacta Box:7/3,4,10 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 3,4,7
Race 7-Female
3 – No What Ifs – She has placed in 5 out of 7 career races, finished 3rd in her last outing, shares the fastest dirt speed among today’s runners, and is paired with a high-performing trainer and jockey.
6 – Lady Go Go – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and has a good 4F workout (Sep-27).
2 – Tickin Time Blonde – Return to dirt offers hope for improvement; Drops in class today and has a good 4F workout (Sep-26).
Longshot:
1 – Cervaro Della Sala – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
5 – She Called
8 – Canal Street
Race 8
7 – Cameo Performance – Placed in 6 of last 10 career starts, winning 2 races; drops in class today; Highest last race speed rating; strong trainer and jockey stats; recent bullet 5F workout (Sep-26).
5 – Sardis – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Mountain Bear – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
6 – Gilded Craken – She has placed in 8 out of her last 10 races, winning 3 races and finishing 2nd in last race; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Alternate:
9 – English Chunnel
3 – Wyoming Bill
Best Bet of the Day at Keenland – 6th Race – #7 – Founders
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 52% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount Inside Out
1 – COOL ANDY – inside speed – blew up in first on dirt at CD – finally healthy 2 starts in a row for the first time.
6 – SCOTTISH STORM – TLRSP#+ 3 – strong C ZONE and biggest edge +9 LS
2 – GOOD MONEY – was on the Derby trail – last two works are his best – maybe ready to show what they thought they had with Derby dreams
4 – HANDSOME PANTS – maybe has some of the most back class – switch to Irad helps
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,4,6
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best
1 – PURPLE AND GOLD – going to be out front – best works prepping – 2nd at this level in lone try
5 – VOLATILE NITE – MSW dropper with 2nd race parability
7 – DIDN’T IT RAIN – TLRSP# + 9, second at this level in lone non MSW effort – bullet and go as ML FAV
4 – BELONGTOTHENAVY – 1st timer vs noes, 2 maybes – works suggest they will send
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5,7/3,4,8/6,7,11,12/5,7
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 52% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount Inside Out
3 – LAUGHNOWCRYLATER – just missed last out – 3rd up – much better fractions last out
8 – ULTIMATE STRIKE – a pair of 2nds in two a Keeneland – smoked last out – better ATB
4 – BATTER UP – is a ½ length from winning 3 in a row – Longshot YES horse
5 – OVERSTATEMENT – SIM FAV – going to be coming with aggression late Move
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 52% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount Inside Out
6 – GRAY IS OKAY – SIM FAV – better EP and Fractions – bounce back in 3rd race
7 – TINGUS PINGUS – going to be on the lead – been well bet in both races
12 – PSALMIST – 2nd race upside – good late move in debut
11 – RED SPEEDO – top Total Pace and highly consistent
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 6,7,11,12
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 52% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount Inside Out
7 – CASTLE ISLAND – going to be out front with top C ZONE
5 – TRIDENT HIT – a pair of 2nd in two at Keenland – plenty of consistent class
1 – EYE WITNESS – speed in fade in last – small cut back and switch to Irad helps?
8 – EASTSIDE COOL – SIM FAV – resume says 3rd up should be solid – tr 0/37 first after claim
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,5,7/3,4,7,11/1,3,5,6/7,8
Race 6: 1 1/8 Miles Turf: Bias – 1 Race w2w from Rail
4 – GOLD SOVEREIGN – any improvement in 3rd career start and he’s tough to beat
3 – BLAST FURNACE – finished ahead of the 4 last out, a pair of works since – but 0/10
11 – FEELING GRAND – 2nd race parability – well above what most others achieved
7 – FOUNDERS – tough call over 8,9,10 – but more upside with less race and Irad
$5: Exacta: 4/3,7,9,10,11
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 6/13 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best
3 – NO WHAT IFS – SIM FAV and Top Total pace and chance to lead – lone dropper
1 – CERVARO DELLA SALA – maybe longshot vs no YESES – won lone KEEN run
6 – LADY GO GO – doesn’t look like it on paper – but should be forward vs these
5 – SHE CALLED – most likely pacesetter with better EP and Fractions
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,5,6
$4 Exacta Key Box: 3/1,5,6
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf: Bias – Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Inside Out
7 – CAMEO PERFORMANCE – mot consistent high end performer – explosive LP in last
8 – MOUNTAIN BEAR – no question turf class is there – strong works between races
6 – GILDED CRAKEN – will try to wire them – turf 6/1-4-0
3 – WYOMING BILL – one of the SIM favs, gets Irad and can make one huge run – Irad most likely to time it right
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,6,7,8
