Keenland Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Keenland Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Keenland – 4-16-2025
Race 1 – Female
5 – Satisfied Mind – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winners from 3 starters, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Evolution – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Backgammon – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 2 stakes winners and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Daring Move – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 3 starter, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
10 – Purely Zen
Race 2 – Female
6 – Casilda – She finished 3rd in her last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout (Apr-09).
8 – Violences Ohr – She finished 4th in her debut race after a slow start, she has a trainer who wins 30% of the races when taking a horse up one class and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Menu Please – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when taking a horse from an AW surface to a dirt surface and can improve while trying dirt.
Longshot:
1 – Big Earn – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the Maiden Claiming races he has a horse running in and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
14 – What’s Her Number
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6,8/2,4,5,8/10/1,3,5,6,8,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 3
5 – Gilmore – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Slip Mahoney – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, he drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Baba Voss – He won his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Guanare – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and can improve while returning to dirt.
Race 4
10 – Double Barrel – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey, this trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (11 4-3-1) and best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
11 – Panthor – He ran 3rd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating, trainer who wins 18% of the races claiming race he has a horse running in and can improve while returning to a sprint.
6 – Dewy’s Beast – He finished in 2nd in one race out of two starts at PARX Racing and he likes the distance.
Longshot:
8 – Coach Campbell – He won his last race at Turfway Park and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Oddsontony
7 – Candyland Phil
Race 5–– Female
3 – Candy Mine – She ran 2nd in her last race, her Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and 1 Turf winner, her breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Software – She ran 3rd in her last race, her Dam has 6 winners from 9 starters and 5 Turf winners, she switches to a high % winning jockey and Lasix is added.
10 – Magic Escapade – She is a first-time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has five bullet workouts in a row.
Longshot:
5 – Fozzer – She ran 3rd in her last race and she can improve while trying grass.
Alternate:
1 – Bundchen
8 – Practical Lov
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,5,6,8,10/3,5/9,12/1,4,5,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
5 – Darioush – He won his debut race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Justifreak – He has not raced for more than 5 months but has been steadily working out for his return to the races, he can improve at the shorter distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Augusta Melody – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Trust Issues – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has a high % winning jockey and he likes the distance.
Alternate:
1 – Jimmy Rules
2 – Tivy
Race 7- Female
12 – Big Trouble – She has been knocking at the door finishing in the money in her last three races, running 2nd vs similar in last race earning the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Saturday Flirt – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the sprints he has a horse running in, she has a high % winning jockey and Lasix is added.
1 – Satin Blue – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and her best turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Longshot:
4 – Elegant – She comes in from Santa Anita to try Keenland, has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the Allowance races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Latin Fever
6 – Sweet Bebsi
Race 8– Female
1 – Princess Is Olivia – She has finished in the money in seven races out of her last nine starts, winning five of the races, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey, she can handle the distance.
4 – We’ll Do It Live – She won her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Theresasilverlinin – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races he has a horse running in, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
6 – Sally’s Suprise – She has won two races out of her last three starts and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Frango Electrico
Bet: $15.00 Win & $25.00 Place: 1 – $5.00 Exacta: 4,5,6,7/1 – $10.00 Exacta: 1/4,5,6,7
Best Bet of the Day at Gulfstream Racing – 8th Race #1 – Princess Is Olivia
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Small Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
First timers Ranked in Order
7 – BACKGAMMON
5 – SATISFIED MIND
10 – PURELY ZEN
3 – NANZIG
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 30% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bias, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Fair but Inside Better
6 – CASILDA – been getting better by the race – great works prepping
8 – VIOLENCES OHR – 2nd race improvement – just needs a little better start
1 – BIG EARN – Irad – could be up front or rally
14 – WHAT’S HER NUMBER – off and on horse – if this is an on race – can win
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 24% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
5 – GILMORE – TLRSP# +3 and SIM FAV – 3rd up – won only race at Keen at the Distance
8 – SLIP MAHONEY – definitely been facing much better – in for a claim – why?
4 – BABA VOSS – highly consistent performer – will be closing and at times, stakes level LP
2 – GUANARE – doesn’t look like it on paper – could be pacesetter versus all but the 6
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
10 – DOUBLE BARREL – only horse with a PAR race
11 – PANTHOR – either of his last two races – some concern about pairing peak races
6 – DEWY’S BEAST – possible pacesetter and has nearly a 2 length Top TOTAL PACE edge
9 – ODDSONTONY – improving by the race after more than a year off – won only race at the distance
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Strong From 1-7, none from 8+
8 – PRACTICAL LOV – just missed last out at this level at GP – a pair of maintenance works since
1 – BUNDCHEN – a Wesley Ward horse – strong rail with some solid works
3 – CANDY MINE – 2nd race improvement and 1st time Lasix
10 – MAGIC ESCAPADE – plenty of excellent works for 2.98/3 first timer – post sucks
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 30% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bias, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Fair but Inside Better
5 – DARIOUSH – 2nd race improvement and it’s a borderline stakes horse – EZ win as 50 cent FAV
6 – AUGUSTA MELODY – only horse with a PAR race – should be better in 2nd up – finally healthy as it’s been more than a year since making 2 starts in a row
3 – JUSTIFREAK – been off since Oct 30 – runs hot off the bench – plenty of good works
2 – TIVY – coming off the sidelines too with a hot work
4 – SUMMONYOURCOURAGE
Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Strong From 1-7, none from 8+
2 – TALES OF THE HEART – faced off versus group company in Europe – works are hot – not common from Bill Mott and first Lasix
9 – SATURDAY FLIRT – Wesley Ward and this is a Stakes Level Horse
8 – DALA – 2nd race improvement and he has a hell of a chance
3 – LATIN FEVER – turf breeding is tops in the field – coming in from Ireland
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 30% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bias, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Fair but Inside Better
1 – PRINCESS IS OLIVIA – rail bias – success at Keen and at the distance – will she come off the bench ready is the question
4 – WE’LL DO IT LIVE – ITM 7/8 at the distance and you know a Diodoro horse will get after it
5 – THERESASILVERLININ – questionable drop and in for a tag – workouts are fine, back class is tops – but why sell for 16K?
2 – COULD BE A COUGAR – SIM FAV – class dropper, pacesetter – not making the same mistake as yesterday
