Keenland Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Keenland Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Keenland – 4-23-2025
Race 1 – Female
5 – Sight to See – She has finished in the money in two of her four career races, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races when using 2nd time Lasix with a horse.
1 – Colonial Rose – She is one for one at Keenland, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Pula – She finished 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 39% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – No Pardon – She is one for one at Keenland and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Helen’s Little Sis
Race 2 – Female
11 – Kontiki – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters and 1 stakes winner, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 4F workout on Apr-11.
1 – Gracie’s Delight – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has two bullet 3F workout in a row.
3 – Nonna’s Love – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and 2 stakes winners, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Percy’s Bar – She is a first-time starter, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 4F workout on Apr-15.
Alternate:
8 – Cat Island
10 – Fetchmydiamonds
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,11/2,6,7/1,2,3,8/3,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
6 – Chachaching – He has finished in the money his last three starts, running 2nd in his last race earning the highest last race speed rating and he can handle the distance.
7 – Spurgeon – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Shogun – He finished 3rd (on AW) in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Midnight Survivor – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Alpha Omega
8 – Strategic Force
Race 4
1 – Earned Not Given – He comes in from Santa Anitia after winning his last race at 1-mile and now stretches out, he has a high % winning trainer and he switches to a high % winning jockey and the rail post is winning at 31% clip.
2 – Coiled – He won his last race at Turfway Park, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the races when a horse he trains runs the 1st time on grass and he has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Early Adopter – He has finished in the money in three of his four career races, winning one of the starts, drops in class today, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Amy’s Music – He has finished in the money in six of his eight career races, winning one of the starts, and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
12 – Hot Property
Race 5
3 – Sharp Swinger – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races a horse he trains runs in and he has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Complex Music – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
4 – Big Lambros – He won his last race and he likes the distance.
Longshot:
6 – Take Five Charlie – He won his debut race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Run of the House
1 – Corman
$.50 Pick 4: #3,4,6,8/2,4,5,6/6/1,2,3,5,9,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 6– Female
5 – Parish Lane – She finished in 2nd in her last race only missing by a nose at 1-1/2 miles, she has the highest last race speed rating she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Tarneema – She finished 2nd in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Sugaree – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the Turf races a horse he trains runs in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Missy Bee – She has finished in the money in her last eight races, winning three of the races, she has a high % winning trainer and she has jockey Frankie Dettori.
Alternate:
9 – Faith Understood
Race 7- Female
6 – Landed – She has finished in the money in eight career starts, winning five of the races, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Pulp Fiction – She comes in from Argentia after winning her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
1 – Chilled – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Little Jamie – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning jockey and she has a good 5F workout on Apr-16.
Alternate:
2 – Cat’s Cave
7 – Indy Label
Bet: $15.00 Win & $25.00 Place: 6 – $5.00 Exacta: 1,2,4,5/6 – $10.00 Exacta: 6/1,2,4,5
Race 8– Female
2 – Just So Pretty – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Indy’s Halo – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Mildred Pierce – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a good 4F workout on Apr-16.
Longshot:
5 – Spinning Class – She has finished in the money in two of her four career races, her best turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
12 – Lady Meis
3 – High Shot
Best Bet of the Day at Keenland – 7th Race #6 – Landed
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 67% w2w – PP: Rail Fair. 2/3 Big Bonus, 4+ Big Discount
1 – COLONIAL ROSE – PAR Runner with Better EP
6 – HELEN’S LITTLE SIS – The other PAR Runner – pacesetter wit Top TOTAL PACE +6
3 – NO PARDON – first LASIX and will be closing – won lone trip at the distance
2 – PULA – SIM FAV – Irad Rides
Race 2: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 71% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
1 – GRACIE’S DELIGHT – Rosario and Ward – fast works
7 – IN THE AGGREGATE – bullet and go – why not at 30-1?
11 – KONTIKI – Cox best first time trainer behind Ward – most expensive in the field
4 – PERCY’S BAR – solid works too
Race 3: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 13% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4+ the same Bonus
6 – CHACHACHING – TLRSP# +5 and lone PAR Runner better LP and Early Fractions
3 – MIDNIGHT SURVIVOR – continued improvement in race #3 would be enough
7 – SPURGEON – MSW dropper after being better ATB
8 – STRATEGIC FORCE – bounce back coming after a set back in 2nd career start
Race 4: 1 3/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 1 Race – Stalker – PP: 4-7
8 – EARLY ADOPTER – 3 SP# increases with TLRSP# +9 – 1st Lasix
12 – HOT PROPERTY – lone E vs all other closers – right fractions
9 – BULLDOZE – just needs to build on 2nd career ride – Pletcher and Irad
2 – COILED – climbing up the ladder and tr Armaud Delacour 37% first on grass
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 18% w2w – PP: Inside Out
3 – SHARP SWINGER – only PAR Runner – winner 2 in a row and should be pacesetter
6 – TAKE FIVE CHARLIE – maybe most upside in just the 2nd career start vs a field of nos and maybes
8 – COMPLEX MUSIC – Irad and Asmussen will be closing
4 – BIG LAMBROS – biggest in race edge with a +5 LS edge –
Race 6: 1 ½ Miles Turf – Bias: 3 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: 1 from 2/3 and 2 from 4-7
3 – ROMANTICA – Top TOTAL PACE +6 – will be closing with Irad
9 – FAITH UNDERSTOOD – one race at Keeneland – only win
4 – TARNEEMA – a finally healthy type making 3 starts in a row for the first time
5 – PARISH LANE – TLRSP# +3 and PAR RUNNER – another finally healthy type – make 2 starts in a row for just the 2nd time as a 4-yo – solid work between races – worried about regression – off for more than 5 months and returned with career best
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 67% w2w – PP: Rail Fair. 2/3 Big Bonus, 4+ Big Discount
6 – LANDED – Wesley Ward burner that should be on the front, top LP too +7 and Top TOTAL PACE more than 2 lengths
1- CHILLED – closer that got DQ in last – success at the track and distance
4 – PULP FICTION – Group 1 winner in Argentina – 1st Lasix – should fit here
5 – LITTLE JAMIE – very consistent performer – decent work prepping
Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: 4 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: 1 rail winner, 2 from 4-7, and 1 from 8+
2 – JUST SO PRETTY – Big EP edge – solid preps getting ready – strong C-Zone
3 – HIGH SHOT – career best race in lone effort at Keeneland – maybe a horse for the course?
12 – LADY MEIS – strong turf breeding – 3 SP# increases
10 – ALITTLEBITNAUGHTY – has a PAR RACE – almost 2 versus the rest of maybe – tr Ian Wilkes won 2 of 10 – 4 of 10 ITM in second starts off the claim
