Keenland Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Keenland Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Keenland – 4-24-2025
Race 1 – Female
6 – Protocol – She finished 3rd in her only start, she has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (18 6-4-4).
3 – Fascinator – She finished in 2nd in her last start and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Vino Bella – She ran 2nd in her last race, her early speed running style helps chances and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
2 – Redo – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and can handle the distance.
Alternate:
4 – True Class
7 – Take Charge Omaha
Race 2
10 – Longshoreman – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
12 – Barstool – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his only start and he has a high % winning trainer and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-15.
6 – Risk – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Tough Critic – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: 6,8,10,12/2,6/1,2/2,5,8,9,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 3 – Female
6 – Windy Walk – She had plenty of trouble in her last race so I will throw that start as prior to this she had won four races in a row, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Lady Emily Kathryn – She finished 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Best Seller – She has won two races out of the last four starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 5F workout on Apr-17.
Longshot:
3 – Klimt’s Muse – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the races when taking a horse from an AW surface to a dirt surface.
Alternate:
7 – Pens Street
4 – Classic Performer
Race 4
2 – Give Me Liberty – He won his last race at Gulfstream Park, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – River Ridge – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the claiming races and can improve while returning to dirt.
7 – Jr’s Gift – He drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he likes the distance.
Longshot:
8 – Bernin Tune – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Prichard
Race 5
10 – Steadfast Resolve – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, winning the prior two starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – British Isles – He finished poorly in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – My Boy Tony – He ran 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – The Dover Specter – He ran 2nd in his last race at Turfway Park, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-17.
Alternate:
5 – Fort Thomas
11 – Dairago
Race 6– Female
9 – Velvet Devil – She has been knocking at the door finishing in 2nd in her two debut races, she has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a good 4F workout on Apr-12.
10 – Tickin Time Blonde – She tried the turf in her last race without much success and now returns to dirt where has finished in the money in three of her four career starts and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Magical Day – She finished 2nd in her last race, Lasix is added and she has a bullet 4F workout 0n Apr-12.
Longshot:
4 – Me and Molly McGee – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 21% of the races with 1st time starters, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 4F workout 0n Apr-16.
Alternate:
8 – Big Air
12 – Cyawouldntwanabeya
$.50 Pick 4: #4,5,8,9,10/6,8,11/5/4,5,6,7,11,12 – Cost $45.00
Race 7
8 – Oscar Season – He won his last race at Gulfstream Park, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and likes the distance.
11 – Intellect – He comes in from Europe after winning two races in a row and looking for a for a hat trick, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races in the 1st at route race a horse he trains runs in and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – El Rezeen – He has won two races out of the last three starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Herchee – He finished in the money in four races out of five career starts, winning two races and he drops in class today.
Alternate:
1 – Depiction
12 – Royal Majesty
Race 8
5 – Ancient World – He won his debut race at the Fairgrounds, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – U Devil You – He won his debut race at 4-1/2 furlongs and now stretches out to 6 furlongs and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Walking in Memphis – He was beaten only 2- lengths vs similar (on Turf) in his last start, can improve at the shorter distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Sexagenarian – He has a win and a 2nd in his two career races, has not raced for more than 7 months but has a bullet 5F workout on Apr-02 and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – C K Wonder
8 – Mischief River
Bet: $40.00 Win: 5 – $5.00 Exacta: 1,2,3,7/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 5/1,2,3,7
Race 9- Female
5 – Halstyn Rose – She comes in from Santa Anitia after finishing 2nd only losing by a nose and stretches out which may work in her favor as she seems to want to close, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Spying – Her Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
11 – Scarletta Carpetta – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
12 – Take Note of This – She finished 2nd in her only start at Keenland, has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races the 2nd time using Lasix with a horse she has running in a race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Celebrity Ro
4 – Kimber Spice
13 – Princess Attitude
Best Bet of the Day at Keenland – 8th Race #5 – Ancient World
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 67% w2w – PP: Rail Fair. 2/3 Big Bonus, 4+ Big Discount
6 – PROTOCOL – MSW dropper with 2nd race parability
3 – FASCINATOR – TLRSP#+7 – Chris P angle
4 – TRUE CLASS – should be pacesetter – 1st Lasix and MSW dropper
5 – VINO BELLA – 3SP # increases – three works between races
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlong Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 4/9 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Better, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Bonus
15 – DAPHNE BLUE – heavy fav in debut for Wesley Ward
10 – LONGSHOREMAN – top rated firster, but Ward horse fired and backed up yesterday -could get over bet
6 – RISK – 2ndrated 1st timer
8 – TOUGH CRITIC – 3rd rated first timer vs all nos and other firsters
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 67% w2w – PP: Rail Fair. 2/3 Big Bonus, 4+ Big Discount
2 – LADY EMILY KATHRYN – 2nd up for the 1st time in more than a year – finally healthy
6 – WINDY WALK – won 2 of 3 at Keeneland – decent set of works prepping
4 – CLASSIC PERFORMER – consistent performer should be on the lead
7 – PENS STREET – should be better in second off the sidelines – pair of works between
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 67% w2w – PP: Rail Fair. 2/3 Big Bonus, 4+ Big Discount
2 – GIVE ME LIBERTY – TLRSP# +10 – 5 works since
1 – RIVER RIDGE – 3rd start after a layoff
7 – JR’S GIFT – only PAR RUNNER and class dropper
3 – PRICHARD – top C-ZONE – better ATB in last – major improvement in only other 2nd up
Race 5: Race 6: 1 ½ Miles Turf – Bias: 4 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: 1 from 2/3 and 3 from 4-7
2 – MY BOY TONY – left arrow horse – 3rd start after a layoff and resume says it should look like the last
10 – STEADFAST RESOLVE – has some of the most LS – won the lone time Irad rode
8 – BRITISH ISLES – PAR RUNNER in 3rd off the bench – smoking work between races
1 – MOUNT RUNDLE – SIM FAV and only horse with a recent triple digit speed figure – hit those RPMs today – and he is the winner
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Penalized, 8+ Strongest
4 – ME AND MOLLY MCGEE – 3 of 3 first timer with great works
9 – VELVET DEVIL – rerun either of her two races – strong works between races
12 – CYAWOULDNTWANABEYA – 3 of 3 first timer with ok works
1 – WILDFIRE PRINCESS – 2.93 of 3 points and classic 5f work heading into debut
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf
12 – ROYAL MAJESTY – 2 for 2 at the distance – good turf breeding – definitely seen a lot tougher
11 – INTELLECT – guessing this will be the post time fav – good breeding for French invader – OTM 8/9 over there – but questionable competition
1 – DEPICTION – been off a while – PC horse – SIM FAV and won the last time he ran this low – and it was a first up like today
9 – HOLD MY BOURBON – TLRSP# +4 and a great work since – maybe set of a run of his best
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Penalized, 8+ Strongest
5 – ANCIENT WORLD – stakes level potential with 2nd race improvement
3 – U DEVIL YOU – easy win in debut – nice workout since – more ground to cover – all fits
8 – MISCHIEF RIVER – half a million dollar horse – thought they had something – speed and first Lasix – lookout if he gets the lead
1 – SEXAGENARIAN – tough call over the 2 and 7 – but more upside in just 3rd career start
Race 9: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: 5 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: 2 rail winner, 2 from 4-7, and 1 from 8+
13 – PRINCESS ATTITUDE – LS Edge at distance were closer won 5 of 5
5 – HALSTYN ROSE – going long for the first time – seems to be a much better horse since moving to turf in the last two
9 – LADY LILYLOU – Top Rated 1ster versus the rest that are maybes and nos
11 – SCARLETTA CARPETTA – right on heels of the 9 for top firster staters
