Keenland Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Keenland Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Keenland – 10-09-2024
Race 1-Female-Pick 5
4 – Mazoku– She has finished in the money in her last eight starts, winning four of the races and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
3 – Forever Home – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she has the highest last race speed rating.
7 – Samarita – She has finished in the money in her last eight races out of her last ten starts, winning four of the races and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Never Sway – She has won three races in her last four starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Simple Souvenir
5 – Sequin Lady
$.50 Pick 5: #1,3,4,7/8,11,12/1,2/1,2/6,7,12,14 – Cost $96.00
Race 2
12 – Masked Man – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his only start, drops in class today, he has high % winning trainer who wins 40% of the races who taking a horse down 2+ classes and he has a good 3F workout (Oct-01).
11 – Spinning Heart – He ran 2nd in his last race at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Afleet Vintage – He is a first-time starter, who has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the dirt starts he has a horse running in and has a good 4F workout on Sep-21.
Longshot:
7 – River Ridge – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Maliblue
$.50 Pick 4: #8,7,11,12/1,2,3/1,2/6,7,12,14– Cost $48.00
Race 3
2 – Dutch Mills – He has won four races out of his last eight and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Invulnerable – He drops in class today, the rail post is winning at a 18% clip, he should improve while returning to dirt and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Sound Doctrine – He won his last race, his early speed running style helps his chances, so the cutback in distance will help.
Longshot:
5 – Normandy Hero – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the sprints he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Crew Dragon
4 – Improbable Journey
Race 4
1 – Stage Left – He did not finish his last race as he stumbled coming out of the gate losing the jockey, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Tallahatchiebridge – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the claiming races he has a horse competing in and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Just Say When – He is one for one at Keenland, drops in class today; returning to dirt offers hope for improvement and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Appeal Denied – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
8 – Upstriker
Race 5-Female
12 – Raconteuse– She drops in class today; her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning jockey.
14 – Enchant – She Ran 2nd vs similar in only start, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Lady Meis – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Fifth of May – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: 6,7,12,14 /5,8,9/1,2,5,6/1,14 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
8 – Kinetic Control – He ran 2nd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-2-1) and a good 4F workout (Sep-30).
9 – Cooper – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Fever Night – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Whiskey Shot – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in the 2nd career race a horse has and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
12 – Perfect Force
Race 7-Female
6 – Miss Enchanted – She won her last race at Saratoga and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Silver Rose – She finished in the money in five of her seven career races, winning two of the starts, the rail post is winning at a18% clip and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Bedazzle ‘Em – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Sing a Little Song – She drops in class today and has a bullet 4F workout on Oct-01.
Alternate:
3 – Lady Moscato
4 – Vicountess
Race 8
1 – Green Light – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
14 – Over and Ollie – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Clever Mischief – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Katheeb – He ran 2nd in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a good 4F workout (Oct-02).
Alternate:
11 – Ocean Victory
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 3rd Race # 2 – Dutch Mills
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 3/5 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
7 – SAMARITA – why not take a longshot that is unbeaten in two at Keeneland
4 – MAZOKU – highly consistent performer with the most upside
3 – FOREVER HOME – properly post positioned potential pacesetter –
1 – NEVER SWAY – is a neck away from winning the last 4 and won both at the distance
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best
7 – RIVER RIDGE – only horse with a par race on its resume
8 – AFLEET VINTAGE – first timer without a lot to beat – nice works and trainer hits at a good rate
12 – MASKED MAN – 2nd race improvement could be enough
10 – GRAND ILLUSION – another 2nd starter with a strong work between races
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best
5 – NORMANDY HERO – resume says 2nd up will be better, maybe even a lot better
1 – INVULNERABLE – another making its 2nd start after a layoff with a bullet work since
3 – SOUND DOCTRINE – 3rd after a layoff and has a history of peak races in 3rd up
2 – DUTCH MILLS – will likely make a big mid move and lone PC
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 3/5 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
7 – VULCAN – finally healthy? Making 2 starts in a row for the first time in 2024 – three really sharp workout prepping
1 – STAGE LEFT – top TOTAL PACE +6 – big and strange drop after losing the jockey in the last
6 – APPEAL DENIED – runs well off the bench and has a couple of decent works
10 – LYKAN – why not take a shot in a race where any can win
Race 5: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 0/3 w2w – PP: 2 for Post 2/3 and the other 4-7
14 – ENCHANT – Top TOTAL PACE +13 – any improvement in 2nd start and would be hard to beat
13 – FEELING BEACHY – will be closing hard and improved in both races after her debut
2 – EL MEGEETH – just needs to rerun her debut
5 – FIFTH OF MAY – 2nd race improvement would be enough
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Small Discount, 8+ Bonus
8 – KINETIC CONTROL – a pair of 2nds in a row – decent work between races
9 – COOPER – just needs to build on his last race in 2nd off the sidelines
3 – WHISKEY SHOT – looking for 2nd race improvement – tr Rodolphe Brisset 28% winner 2nd start
5 – FEVER NIGHT – another where 2nd race improvement could move him to the winners circle
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best
6 – MISS ENCHANTED – maybe too much early speed for the rest
1 – SILVER ROSE – 3rd off the bench with enough ES to keep up and has high level LS
5 – BEDAZZLE ‘EM – 2nd race off the sidelines should be as good and maybe a lot better
2 – SING A LITTLE SONG – dropping from a Grade II and has a bullet work prepping for first after a short rest
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 1/7 w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2+ Discount
1 – GREEN LIGHT – either of the last two would do and cannot overlook how well the rail has performed
14 – OVER AND OLLIE – won last two – resume says 2nd up with be plenty better than the first and last was TLRSP#
6 – CLEVER MISCHIEF – getting better race to race – improved 2/4
10 – EL REY REY – we’ll close with a longshot that has robust LS compared to most of these and top TOTAL PACE
