Keenland Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Keenland Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Keenland – 10-16-2024
Race 1
6 – Good Like Magic – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, drops in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Stingy – He finished in the money in three out of her last four races, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Huntertown – He ran 2nd in his last two starts, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Hoppin John – He ran 2nd in his last start, the rail post is winning at a 18% clip, can improve while returning to a sprint and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
2 – Pico d’Oro
8 – Arthur
$1.00 Exacta Key Box: #6/All
Race 2
4 – Deeply Hidden – He has run 2nd twice in his four-career start, drops in class today, he has high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and blinkers are added today.
3 – Greatdayforhockey – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Oct-07.
1 – G. Erik – He has a high % winning jockey, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip, drops in class today, blinkers are added today and he has a good 4F workout Oct-04.
Longshot:
6 – Morally – He drops in class today, may to improve while trying dirt, he has high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and he has a bullet 4F workout Oct-09.
Alternate:
7 – Il Marchesse
8 – Consecrated
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,4/4,6,12/1,2,4/3,6,7 – Cost $40.50
Race 3-Female
12 – Just Like You – She ran 2nd in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starter.
4 – Three Polks – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Oct-06.
6 – Lil Temptation – She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Devil of Paradis – She won her last race and he has a bullet 4F workout Oct-05.
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,4,6, 12
Race 4-Female
4 – The Big Calhouna – She ran 2nd in her last race at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Krickle – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races he has a horse competing in.
1 – Up On the Edge – She finished in the money in two of her last three races and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Despo’s Dream – She won her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Pat’schromecompass
8 – Animal Fries
Race 5-Female
6 – Moon Spun – She finished in the money in five career races, winning one of the starts, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Penny’s Smile – She won her last race and she has a good 4F workout on Oct-09.
3 – Arch Street – She finished 2nd in her last race, her breeding suggests she will like the grass, Frankie Dettori is in the irons and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the sprint races he has a horse competing in.
Longshot:
2 – May May Strong – She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: 3,6,7/9,10/3,5,11,12/2,3,10,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
9 – Lips Say Bliss – He finished in the money in six races out of seven career races, winning three of the starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
10 – D’oro Unbridled – He won his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Yellow Brick – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last start, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Generous Tipper – He finished in the money in three races out of five career races, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Django
4 – Moonlight
Bet: $16.00 Win & $26.00 Place: #9 – $5.00 DD: 9/3,5,11,12
Race 7
5 – Six Minus – He drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie), likes the distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
12 – Better Bet – He finished in the money in four races out of six career races, winning two of the starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
11 – Idratherbeblessed – He finished 3rd in his only start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Goldeneye – He won his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Six Minus
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #3,5,11,12
Race 8
12 – Active Duty – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has high % winning jockey.
10 – Rocket Night – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has trainer who wins 24% of the maiden claiming races.
3 – Remarkable Mo – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when dropping a horse off a claim, best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Indy Charge – He drops in class today, may improve while returning to dirt and returning to a route and has a bullet 4F workout (Oct-07).
Alternate:
9 – Ultimate Strike
11 – Whiskey Or Wine
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 6th Race # 9 – Lips Say Bliss
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
6 – GOOD LIKE MAGIC – top TOTAL PACE +10 – but this is the first at a tier 1 track
8 – ARTHUR – better ATB in last – catching a weight break
5 – STINGY – should be better in 2nd up and very consistent performer
2 – PICO D’ORO – better on dirt than turf and returns to dirt today
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Best, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Bonus
4 – DEEPLY HIDDEN – closet to getting to Par for this level
6 – MORALLY – improved in both races after debut with TLRSP# +3
3 – GREATDAYFORHOCKEY – MSW dropper with a pair of his best works between
1 – G. ERIK – MSW dropper with his best work before 2nd up
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
4 – THREE POLKS -pacesetter that could get an easy lead and won easy in lone Keeneland run
12 – JUST LIKE YOU – TLRSP# and could be better in 2nd up
9 – SISTER ELLA – drops in class – usually comes from off the pace – but 3f work hints at a better start today
6 – LIL TEMPTATION – track and class riser – if she can carry form
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 5 Races, Early Speed, 3 w2w – PP: None From Rail, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
5 – SASSY WALKER – longshot – could be much better or worse in 2nd up with a maintenance work
2 – KRICKLE – should be marginally better in 3rd up and was considerably better late
6 – DESPO’S DREAM – popped a big race in his last and big race is usually followed by another
7 – SCRUPULOUS – run back two races to win at CD and she’s a threat at a price
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 14% w2w – PP: Inside 3 tough, 4-7 By far the Best, 8+ Discount
6 – MOON SPUN – not far from being undefeated in 5 – top TOTAL PACE +9
7 – PENNY’S SMILE – faster fractions last out and some really nice works prepping
12 – BEETS – stepping up the ladder – faster fractions despite going longer
5 – HARBOR SPRINGS – switches to Irad in 3rd up
Race 6: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: 7 Races – Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2-7 Hit, 8+ By Far Best
10 – D’ORO UNBRIDLED – very consistent performer – better in 2nd up
5 – GENEROUS TIPPER – finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup at Keeneland – wide trip in last
3 – THINK BIG – Irad on a horse with strong LS and should benefit from Irad and more distance
1 – BRIGHT LEAF – west coast invader and has run well fresh like today – most back class but CA numbers tend to be a little inflated in my view – but my research says they translate to CD
Race 7: 1 ½ Miles Turf – Bias: No Races
6 – CYBER NINJA – distance isn’t an issue and down from a high priced KD race
5 – SIX MINUS – coming out of the same race as the 6 – distance 4/1-1-1
11 – IDRATHERBEBLESSED – could get out to the front and if the fractions are right – could go all the way
10 – MENDELSSOHNS MARCH – run back two races to and he is the winner
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: 7 Races – Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2-7 Hit, 8+ By Far Best
3 – REMARKABLE MO – only horse with a par race on the board and hast two of them
12 – ACTIVE DUTY – should be better in 2nd up with a solid work between races
1 – COMMANDER’S COIN – should be closing and runs the longest race of his early career
2 – INDY CHARGE – pure MSW dropper with the most ES – 2nd up with a bullet work between starts
