Keenland Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Keenland Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Keenland – 10-23-2024
Race 1-Female
2 – Cha Cha Chukka – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie), switches to a high % winning jockey and she has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Lucy Got Game – She won her last race at Churchill Downs; she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Low Country Magic – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Yo Puedo – She finished in the money in both starts at Keenland, winning one of the starts and she has won two races out of four starts at today’s distance.
Alternate:
4 – Crazy Cami
7 – Wits and Wagers
Race 2-Female
2 – Golden Irish – She first time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Citizen Judy – She drops in class today, can improve at the shorter distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
11 – Bullet Baby – She first time starter, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the dirt races he has a horse competing in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – She’s Single Again – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the sprints races he has a horse competing in, she has a high % winning jockey and the rail post is winning at a 22% clip.
Alternate:
6 – Get It Together
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,4,6,11/1,4,6,7,9/4,5,9,10/10 – Cost $50.00
Race 3
1 – Gilded Craken – He finished in the money in eight races out of the last ten races, winning three of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Apollo Rising – He finished in the money in his last seven races, winning three of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Curlin’s Gesture – He ran 2nd in his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Atlantic Dancer – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Ministerial
Race 4
4 – Show Time – He won his last race; he has the highest last race speed rating and he has high % winning jockey.
5 – Strava – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing back a horse who has been 46-90 days away and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Underdressed – He has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout (Oct-09).
Longshot:
10 – C F V Bullet – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Nullarbor
7 – Huge Bigly
Race 5-Female
10 – Birdwatching – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – My Brazilian Girl – She has finished in the money in three out of five career starts, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, Lasix is added and she has a good 4F workout on Oct-16.
6 – One Front War – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – High Shot – She finished 2nd in her two career races and she has the highest last race speed rating.
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6,10/5,6/1,7/4,6,9,10,11,12 – Cost $48.00
Race6-Female
6 – Landed – She finished in the money in six career races, winning four of the starts, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Intricate – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
11 – Musical Note – She won two of her three career races; she has a high % winning trainer and switches a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Neon Icon – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
9 – Audacious
8 – Just Be Quiet
Bet: – $2.00 DD: 5,6,11/1,7
Race 7
1 – Arrest Me Red – He won his last race; his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning jockey Frankie Dettori.
7 – Outadore – He finished in the money in sixteen races out of twenty career races, winning ten of the starts, likes the distance winning four races out of five starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
10 – Mo Stash – He has won two races out of four starts at Keenland, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Mischievous Rogue – He ran 5th in his last race after having trouble as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – That’s Right
Bet: $18.00 Win & $30.00 Place: #1 – $5.00 DD: 1,7/4,6,9,10
Race 8
4 – Touchy – He drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie), his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a bullet 5F workout (Oct-17).
10 – Original Sin – He first time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Can Do Andrew – He ran 2nd in his only start and has a good 4F workout (Oct-13).
Longshot:
6 – Mo Quality – He first time starter, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a bullet 5F workout (Oct-17).
Alternate:
11 – Campaign Trail
12 – Amor Patriae
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race # 1 – Arrest Me Red
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Similar Discount
9 – EAST SHORE – consistently performs at the highest level
5 – LUCY GOT GAME – tied for the TLRSP and is making the first up start
3 – LOW COUNTRY MAGIC – better ATB In last and should be a little better in the 2nd up
4 – CRAZY CAMI – top TOTAL PACE +5
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 16% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Bonus
Any can win
7 – ARDITAMENTE – 2.8/3 points with a back bullet on Oct 2nd – 4 furlongs in 47.1 – best work
4 – CITIZEN JUDY – closest to hitting par for any of the experienced horses – speed fade, a pair of works before 2nd up
2 – GOLDEN IRISH – 2.5/3 firster – strong breeding and trainer – wish the works were better
6 – GET IT TOGETHER – 2.3 – solid breeding, decent tr 1st time win rate – wish the works were better here too
Race 3: 1 3/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Discount
1 – GILDED CRAKEN – any of the last 5 would do – but Keeneland 2/0-0-0
7 – APOLLO RISING – runs well first up – a couple of wins and a second after holding the lead late
6 – CURLIN’S GESTURE – won at this level last out – strong LS and getting the most length today
8 – OVERSTATEMENT – much better fractions last out – with better 2/4 pace
Race 4: 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Similar Discount
4 – SHOW TIME – maybe the most upside in the race – finally healthy – 3rd up for the first in 2 years
7 – HUGE BIGLY – one run at Keeneland and it was and EZ lead – best when forward
10 – C F V BULLET – dropping in class and last race was better than it looks with faster fractions
5 – STRAVA – running at the lowest level in last 10 – plenty of solid works indicate he should be ready for this level
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 8 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out
4 – MY BRAZILIAN GIRL – most upside – first Lasix and SIM FAV
10 – BIRDWATCHING – either of her first two races would probably win – outside post hurts
2 – HIGH SHOT – 3rd up closer getting extra distance here
5 – PRETTY PERTINENT – better early and has a some late speed, 2nd up and going longer here
Race 6: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: 3 Races, 1 w2w – PP: 1 win from Rail and the other 2 from 4-7
6 – LANDED – winner three in a row with solid works
9 – AUDACIOUS – showed Stakes level ES in first two races and then Stakes level LS in last – put the two together and she is a stakes horse for Todd Pletcher
5 – INTRICATE solid off the sidelines like today and won her lone Keene race with ease – 1st Lasix
3 – NEON ICON – extremely consistent performer – and won her debut at Keene with ease
Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
7 – OUTADORE – winner of 4/5 at the distance – runs well off the sideline
6 – MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE – 3 SP# increases – tends to run well fresh – Distance 5/3-2-0
9 – THAT’S RIGHT – lone E that could get to the front with Irad – last Keeneland works is of the charts – 4f in 46.1 – dirt though
1 – ARREST ME RED – can never overlook Wesley Ward in Turf Sprint – but horse at Keene 3/0-0-1
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 16% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Bonus
10 – ORIGINAL SIN – 2.7/ strong breeding – works and trainer
4 – TOUCHY – been close – bullet works prepping – but slowish
12 – AMOR PATRIAE – 2.7 as well, strong breeding and fast works – trainer hits at 15% debut MSW
6 – MO QUALITY – 2/3 – probably the best set of works
