Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
The Kentucky Derby trail is starting to heat up with three prep races this weekend. This is where the contenders are really starting to separate themselves from the pretenders. Saturday there are two graded stakes races with the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park, the Withers at Aqueduct and Sunday the Robert E. Lewis at Santa Anita Park. (17) Kentucky Derby points are up for grabs in each race; the winner of the race receives (10) points, 2nd place (4) points, 3rd (2) points and the 4th place finisher (1) point.
HOLY BULL STAKES (GRADE 3) GULFSTREAM PARK 1 1/16 mile on the dirt
A couple stats of note regarding 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Gulfstream for this Distance/Surface:
- The post time favorite wins (46%) and finishes in the money (75%) of the time. (79%) of the time the winner is at odds below 5:1.
- Early speed horses have won (100%) of the races, (25%) go wire to wire. The Average beaten lengths of the eventual winner is 1st call (1.0) and 2nd call (0.6).
- From a post position standpoint there is a positive bias on the rail with outside posts (8+)
My top pick is #9 GIANT GAME (ML 7/2). I am excited to see what this horse does; I like the jockey switch to Luis Saez. The comments in the PP’s are fairly accurate as this horse went 4-wide heading into the stretch and never really was in a spot to contend. Let’s also consider who he was running against with Corniche and Pappa Cap. Not sure he really hung vs. those two horses just being positioned better for the stretch run. Has already registered a win at this distance and I like the works off the two-month layoff. Beat a couple of familiar names back in October with CALL ME MIDNIGHT and SURFER DUDE.
My 2nd choice is #4 SIMPLIFICATION (ML 4:1). The last race I’m not sure he was really tested and ran a nice speed figure. The horse looked like he had more to give, trainer Antonio Sano has a nice horse here. Exciting Trainer/Jockey connection stat, Castellano has ridden for the barn 8 times, in the winner’s circle (38%). Will be forwardly placed and should be able to grab the front end out of the gate.
3rd choice is #2 MO DONEGAL (ML 3:1). He should be the favorite come post time, when Pletcher and Irad Ortiz connect they win (56%). I’ll start with the positives, 1/1 at the distance, like the workout pattern as I believe horse is ready to fire, Irad and pedigree is there. What was interesting last race is that the fractions were very slow, and it was cheap speed on the front. Made a sweeping move at the end but I’m just not sure he looked as dominant as I would have liked. Should be within striking distance heading into the stretch.
Rounding out tickets here are a few others to consider. #6 TIZ THE BOMB (5:1) is very interesting, ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in November and finished 2nd to Modern Games. Horse has run a couple of times on the dirt and the win in the maiden ranks was wire to wire. Very talented horse who could be in the mix at the end. Couple of longshots should the pace get hot would be the closer #7 SPIN WHEEL (20:1). I like the works and look where this horse has raced, Saratoga, Keeneland, Churchill and now going to Gulfstream. #5 CAJUN’s MAGIC is a gut feel as horse has been in the money all five races at Gulfstream, always competitive. Just feels like one that could sneak onto tickets.
Race Picks (9-4-2-6)
WITHERS STAKES (GRADE 3) AQUEDUCT 1 1/8 mile on the dirt
A couple stats of note regarding 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Aqueduct for this Distance/Surface:
- The post time favorite wins (46%) and finishes in the money (81%) of the time. (73%) of the time the winner is at odds below 5:1.
- Early speed horses have won (67%) of the races, (44%) go wire to wire. The Average beaten lengths of the eventual winner is 1st call (2.1) and 2nd call (1.4). (E) speed horses win 44% of the time.
My top pick is #9 EARLY VOTING (ML 3:1). I feel this is the class of this group. Jose Ortiz rode him to a win last out and as I’ve noted the past couple of weeks in these notes how much I like the sire GUN RUNNER. Stats to back are Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz win (40%) and this horse was a $200k purchase at Keeneland back in 2020. Think this one if legit, you’re not going to get 3:1 but for me would be a single.
My next group is #5 COURVOISER (9:2) won the last race on a sloppy track, 2/2 at the Big A. I always like the 5f works which is a building stamina. #11 COOKIE CREEK finished 3rd in last race but did have some trouble. I like the pedigree but will need some pace pressure up front. #1 CONSTITUTION LAWYER (7:2) went wire to wire on a muddy track, is he capable of winning on a dry track in a Grade 3? We shall see. Good luck everyone.
Race Picks (9-5-11-1)
