Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
All eyes on Saturday will be on Fair Grounds Racetrack for the Lecomte Stakes which is a qualifying race for the Kentucky Derby. The top 4 finishers receive Kentucky Derby points to qualify; the winner of the race receives (10) points, 2nd place (4) points, 3rd (2) points and the 4th place finisher receives (1) point. This is one of my favorite times of the year where you start seeing a lot of talented horses as we get closer to the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs.
Race 14 the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on the Dirt at a 1 mile and 16th.
The pace on paper appears to be brisk but that can be taken with a grain of salt as the most talented of horses typically run at or near the front end. Remember this tip that stakes horses win stakes races, this early on I am looking for horses who continue to improve and that have shown talent by showing some tactical speed, putting horses away or working successfully through trouble.
A couple stats of note regarding 3-year-old Stakes races at Fairgrounds:
- The favorite wins (46%) of these type of races, average odds of winner are (81%) below 5:1. Not the race to seek out a longshot.
- The eventual winner average beaten lengths at 1st call is (2.0) and 2nd call (1.2). Horses need to be close to the pace to win.
My top pick is the #5 EPICENTER who will more than likely will be the post time favorite. Epicenter and Surfer Dude should connect early on the front end. It is interesting that Epicenter’s last two races it was the same pace matchup with the exact same two horses on the front-end with Surfer Dude failing miserably on both occasions. Watch the replays which I believe will be more of the same for the third time. The last time they hooked up was fractions of 24.2/47.3 and Epicenter put SD away. The race before the pace was quicker with fractions of 22.4/45.4. I was more impressed in that race as Epicenter showed he had another gear which is what I fully expect to be showcased today. There are some concerns based on pedigree that Epicenter isn’t built for stamina at a longer distance like the Kentucky Derby but today he’s 2 for 2 at this distance on a track that favors front speed. Also note the jockey upgrade to Joel Rosario who seems to do some of his best work on the front-end; (28%) wins on Early Speed type runners.
My 2nd choice is #3 PAPPACAP, one of my favorite horses of recent years is Gun Runner and I’m excited to see his offspring doing so well early on. This is a talented horse who matched up against one of the best in Cornich the past couple of times and came up 2nd on both occasions. The last race Pappacap had a pace saving trip along the rail but never found the switch to contend down the stretch. I believe this horse would benefit from having a little more distance than what he gets today. Highest last race speed figure and should be there in the end.
My underneath picks are #6 CYBERKNIFE. The ‘other’ Gun Runner, a presser who has run close to the Pace in first 3 races. If Flo Giroux can keep him close, he could be sneaky at a price. I also like the recent works with the 5f bullet right before the race, Brad Cox should have this horse ready to fire. One other interesting horse to include underneath is #8 CALL ME MIDNIGHT. Past Performance’s in the last race show a 7th place finish and 10 lengths back in a Grade 2, ran into a slow pace, was running 3-wide throughout and showed some speed into the turn. I also like the race before as the first quarter at 23.4 could have been more of the same excuse. Horse has some heart which doesn’t always show in the PP’s.
The top two are probably going to be 1-2 on the tote so I’ll look to add some value with including the back speed in an Exacta or Trifecta. Best of luck.
Race Picks
(5-3-6-8)
