Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
With two Kentucky Derby preps completed for the weekend we went 1 for 2. In the Withers EARLY VOTING showed he was the single he deserved to be breaking well from the gate and was never challenged running away.
The Holy Bull pace dynamics completely changed when SIMPLIFICATION missed the break and speed missed being on the front. Simplification ran off the pace and closed well showing he had a ton of run getting up for 2nd. My top choice GIANT GAME flattened quickly on the turn and is starting to heat up with three prep races this weekend. MO DONEGAL had a tough trip and didn’t get the pace he needed up front and going wide hurt his chances as he ended up with the show but was closing hard.
The (10) point prep point races are winding down and we have one more this weekend with the Robert E. Lewis at Santa Anita Park on Sunday. (17) Kentucky Derby points are up for grabs in each race; the winner of the race receives (10) points, 2nd place (4) points, 3rd (2) points and the 4th place finisher (1) point.
ROBERT B. LEWIS (GRADE 3) SANTA ANITA PARK 1 1/16 mile on the dirt
A couple stats of note regarding 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Santa Anita for this Distance/Surface:
- The post time favorite wins (46%) and finishes in the money (75%) of the time. (79%) of the time the winner is at odds below 5:1.
- Early speed horses have won (67%) of the races, (44%) go wire to wire. The Average beaten lengths of the eventual winner is 1st call (1.8) and 2nd call (1.2).
- From a post position standpoint there is a positive bias on the inside post positions (1-3) winning (26%) of the races.
My top pick is #1 MESSIER (ML 6/5). Baffert is making some changes with taking the Blinkers Off (34% winners on this angle) with some solid works, whenever you see a 5f bullet right before the race it is an indicator the store is ready to fire. Baffert giving the mount to Johnny V which I believe is more of a positive move than Prat jumping off to ride Sir London. Baffert is using Johnny V a lot and check out that stat on (20) mounts, (60%) wins!!! Highest speed figures, I’ll cut him some slack as the last race he had both speed horses to his immediate inside making him hang 3-wide on the turn. He just didn’t have enough to hold on in the stretch run.
My 2nd choice is #2 SIR LONDON (ML 9/5). A $700k purchase who was bred in Kentucky for $35k means this horse has ‘the looks’. Prat has ridden for all 3 races and last race wasn’t really pushed last race. Had the rail and had an easy trip once he put the other early speed horse away. The last race I’m not sure he was really tested and ran a nice speed figure. Took 3 tries to get first win, is going to need to get a clean break and grab the front quickly. On paper he has the pace advantage and Prat does some of his best work on the front end.
3rd choice is #4 WHARTON ML (4/1) Baffert taking Johnny V to ride the favorite probably means that is the intention. I’m looking at the rest of the small field and am asking what horse can take a step forward. Won Maiden debut running just off the pace along the rail, perfect trip but geared down when he needed to. Not sure what Baffert is doing with the unawarded points, but he will continue reaping.
The remaining two:
#3 CABO SPIRIT (ML 8:1) Hasn’t shown much on dirt, did finish ½ length two races back in a Grade 3 on the Turf at Del Mar. Could be sneaky at a price to include underneath to boost your odds.
#5 HAPPY JACK (ML 6:1) Horse broke well from the gate and was pulled back by jockey Abel Cedillo. The fractions were suicidal even at 6f running 21.3/44.4, horse picked it up at the end and created the illusion of speed by passing tired horses.
Race Picks (1-2-4-3)
