Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks – Sam F Davis and El Camino Real Derby

Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks

We are officially 3 months away from the Kentucky Derby and the trail moves to Tampa Bay Downs for the Sam F. Davis and Golden Gate Fields for the El Camino Real Derby.  (17) Kentucky Derby points are up for grabs in each race; the winner of the race receives (10) points, 2^nd place (4) points, 3^rd (2) points and the 4^th place finisher (1) point. This week I am going to focus my attention with details on the Sam F. Davis and provide picks on the El Camino.

SAM F. DAVIS STAKES (GRADE 3) TAMPA BAY DOWNS 1 1/16 mile on the dirt

Stats 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Tampa for this Distance/Surface:

• The post time favorite wins (47%) and finishes in the money (77%) of the time. (77%) of the time the winner is at odds below 5:1.
• Early speed horses have won (57%) of the races, (26%) go wire to wire. The Average beaten lengths of the eventual winner is 1^st call (2.7) and 2^nd call (1.5).
• From a post position standpoint there is a positive bias on the rail with inside posts (1-4).
• (TIP) Tampa is one of my go-to tracks during the winter and my experience with dirt races there tend to really favor early speed to the inside around the turn due to the angle of the banking heading into the stretch. Think of a NASCAR race where the banks are steep, if you’re going to pass in a race, it is usually on the inside.  I believe that is a big reason why it is so difficult for back speed to win there unless they are right behind the leader and can make their move on the stretch rather than on the turn.

PACE ANALYSIS: I first want to review what the pace set up appears to be on paper.  Utilizing the Quirin point system the race out of the gate looks like it could be hot on the front-end.  The race complexion changes if the (13) LITTLE VIC draws in or if he scratches so keep an eye on that.  For this exercise I will include him in the pace picture.

Expected 1^st call

2022 Sam F Davis Pace Preview

The pace on the visual is a potential melt-down hot (67) on the early speed points with (4) one dimensional early speed horses, again if LITTLE VIC draws in it just adds more speed to the front end and we want that, the horse breaks well and ran some gasping for air fractions last time out of 22.4 and 44.2.  On paper the 1 MR. RUM RUNNER must run hard out of the gate to hold the rail, 2 UNPREDICTABLE BAY should be able to tuck behind.  3 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY will more than likely grab a piece of the front end as well.  Both back speed horses in the race 4 GOLDEN GLIDER and 5 GOD OF LOVE have great post positions to slide over off the pace where they need can watch the action unfold up front.  After that you have all the Early Pressers in the next six positions that I believe are more need the lead types and should apply extra pace pressure to the front-end.  There is enough distance for him to not get caught on the turn, but a lot will depend on what happens with all the EP horses to the inside of him.  Make no doubt about it this race is wide-open, and this is a good opportunity to catch a price.

SELECTIONS

My top pick is #4 GOLDEN GLIDER (ML 12/1).  When you look at the workouts you see CAA as the training track which stands for the Casse Training Center located in Ocala, Florida.  Do yourself a favor and ‘Google-it’ to see what a world class training facility this is, looks like a spa retreat for horses.   Sired by Ghostzapper for a stud fee of $75k and then sold for $395k at the 2019 Keeneland Fall sale.  Casse took him north of the border to run in a $127k Maiden which he won coming from far back.  After that race he was shipped back to Florida where he ran at Tampa in an Optional Claimer and won, as comments in PP note he was reserved, and I don’t believe went ‘all-out’ saving fuel in the tank.  Three published works since the last race and like the pattern going 4f/5f/4f.  With the anticipated pace on the front end, they could break away from the field; the key is the first quarter as we need something close to (22/46).  Lightly raced and the Sam F. Davis was likely part of the plan, add the additional pace and I believe this one should be there in the end.  Back speed can win at Tampa on the dirt, just watch the tote and ask for value as he will need to fight through some traffic to get there.

My 2^nd choice is #12 KITTEN MISCHIEF (ML 12/1).  Labeled as an Early pace type but has shown he can run just off the pace and be successful.  Lightly raced and took a nice step forward last race where he got stuck behind traffic, had a little space on the rail and made a move but fell short.  Ran at Aqueduct winning debut and then was shipped south to Florida to train at Payson Park.  I get excited whenever I see any horses sired by Into Mischief; who’s standard stud fee is a cool $250k.  For this much money you better be right a lot more than your wrong.  Jonathan Thomas can fire with shippers (25%) and on routes (25%) and he brings Manny Franco in to see if they can take another step forward.  If we have scratches to ease the pace a bit his stock goes up.

My 3rd choice is #3 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (ML 3:1).  I would like to fade the chalk completely, but I cannot, my guess he will be 9/5 come post time, let’s try and get something at a better price.  I believe he will be in the mix after watching his last race, I don’t believe he’s a need the pace type as he ran behind the leaders throughout the last race.  I enjoy digging deep looking at the connections in all these races and seeing who they’ve beaten and lost to prior.  There is no shame in getting beaten by SMILE HAPPY but let’s also remember he also finished ahead of last weekend’s Holy Bull winner WHITE ABARIO and he showed fight by running tough in the stretch.  Owned and bred by the same, sired by Giants Causeway and the dam out of Thunder Gulch; he’s probably the best bred in this field for distance.

Rounding things out here are a few others to consider on your tickets. 

#5 GOD OF LOVE (ML 10/1) this is the ‘other’ Casse trained horse who has been spending his recent days at the Casse Training Center; if pace gets hotter than hot this is the lone closer; horse spent the fall racing four times and winning twice at Woodbine.  Tampa is a deep track and can be challenging for horses that have not run there, Woodbine shippers typically do run well.   Ran wide throughout the last race and Rafael Hernandez keeps the mount.  Needs to be within 5 lengths at 2^nd call to have a shot and get some luck weaving through traffic.

#11 STRIKE HARD (6/1) if you’ve been following along the past few weeks, we’ve given out some horses that may not necessarily be standouts on paper but have competitive heart.  The horse that impressed me out of the Holy Bull was Simplification, yes, he missed the break but when you can point to excuses why he didn’t win means there is more.  Don’t discount his Holy Bull effort and the fact that Strike Hard finished 2^nd to him last time out.  That 2^nd fraction difference of 22.1 where Strike Hard hung tough with Simplification while distancing himself from everyone else should matter.  This would be my sneaky longshot at a price.

#8 SHIPSATIONAL (9/2) Horse is 3 for 3, Jose Ortiz comes with him to Tampa, so you know he’s legit.  Hasn’t really been pressured and has shown some tactical speed from off the pace.  Last race was inside horses and had to go 4-wide off the turn and went past with a good drive down the stretch.  He likely will be in the mix somewhere in the end.

Race Picks (4-12-3-5) 

EL CAMINO REAL DERBY STAKES $100K GOLDEN GATE FIELDS 1 1/8 mile on the dirt

A couple stats of note regarding 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Golden Gate for this Distance/Surface:

• The post time favorite wins (80%) and finishes in the money (81%) of the time. (100%) of the time the winner is at odds below 5:1.
• Early speed horses have won (0%) of the races. The Average beaten lengths of the eventual winner is 1^st call (6.2) and 2^nd call (3.8). Back speed (P/C) horses win (75%) of the time.

My top pick is #2 MACKINNON (ML 3:1).  I feel this is the class of this group in a group of local horses where derby points are rewarded, and the winner earns a guaranteed spot in the Preakness.  The All-Weather surface is tough to figure out sometimes, but this is a drop-in class for a horse that has done well on the Turf.  Ran on the dirt in the Sham stakes and made a move out of the turn and looked poised to pass Rockefeller but flattened out in the stretch and was passed by Oviatt Class finishing 4^th in a field of five.

#4 BLACKADDER (9:2) here is Baffert again attempting to scoop up more ‘unrewarded’ derby points.  $620k purchase back in September 2020 and has the pedigree for the distance.  Horse won last race at Santa Anita, Maldonado rides for the first time and should be in striking distance heading into the stretch run.  #6 BOISE (9:2) the other closer had a tough go a few weeks ago but has some of the best speed par figures in the race. I’ll round out with a couple of the local Maiden winners with #11 DEMO and #10 BELLATOR.

Race Picks (2-4-6-11)