Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
This week the trail to the Derby moves to Oaklawn Park for the Southwest Stakes which is Race 9 on the card. (17) Kentucky Derby points are up for grabs; the winner of the race receives (10) points, 2nd place (4) points, 3rd (2) points and the 4th place finisher (1) point. A couple of facts about the Southwest as this race has been won by two former Kentucky Derby winners; Lil E. Tee (1992) and Smarty Jones (2004). You don’t have to go too far back to see the past quality of this race as last year’s top three finishers were Essential Quality, Spielberg, and Jackie’s Warrior.
A couple other notes of interest is the pace dynamics of this race completely changed when Bob Baffert decided to ship in Newgrange from Santa Anita. The derby rules currently in effect are that Bob Baffert must vacate all derby points earned in the prep races. While the points are not awarded to the Baffert trained horses they also are not redistributed, not sure how this strategy works out in the end but it’s kind of like addition by subtraction.
The pace does indicate to favor horses just off the pace and the current pace set up prior to any scratches indicates things could potentially get hot on the front end. While the fractions in the LaComte last weekend was nothing out of the ordinary (23.4/47.2); pace isn’t always about speed but more about a horse’s run style, energy distribution during the race and finding their comfort zone.
A couple stats of note regarding 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Oaklawn at this Distance:
- The post time favorites win (44%) and finish in the money (74%) of the time. (78%) of the time the winner is at odds below 5:1. We had similar stats last week and the longshot won.
- Early speed horses win (60)% of the races, (26%) go wire to wire. The Average beaten lengths of the eventual winner is 1st call (2.9) and 2nd call (1.3).
- From a post position standpoint there is some positive bias on the rail and in post positions 4 through 7. Also, of note the lowest win percentage are horses on the outside in post positions 8 and higher.
My top pick is #2 DASH ATTACK (ML 7/2). In the last race what you see in the PP comments everyone sees ‘off slow, 4-wide’; what isn’t in the comments that you get from watching the replay is the fact Dash Attack was 3-wide on the turn picking up 4 lengths, there was a ton of traffic in front of him and he tipped out and found a way going down the middle of a wet track which is not easy to do. This being his 3rd career start I believe this horse can still improve off that effort. He’s 2 for 2 at Oaklawn, I think the extra 1/16 benefits coming from off the pace and he has already beat (6) horses in this field; Ben Diesel, Don’tcrossthedevil, Kavod, Ignitis, Barber Road and Vivar. I’m not a big fan of the sire Munnings but where not a lot of distance is being added I’ll take a shot and trust that my favorite saying ‘Pace Makes the Race’ holds true here. Being the second choice on the morning line, I am concerned he will be bet down off the morning line after winning his last race. My recommendation is to demand value here.
My 2nd choice is the Bob Baffert shipper #10 NEWGRANGE (ML 2/1). There are a lot of things to like about this horse and he certainly appears legit, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this horse go wire to wire and win easily. I’m working hard to punch some holes to see if he may be vulnerable. Baffert ships this horse in late and brings in ‘Johnny-V’ to Oaklawn for the entire day. A lot of positives to consider with highest speed figure, pedigree, distance, and some solid workouts.
However, I don’t believe he is a lock based on being shipped cross country, racing for the first time off the speed favoring west coast tracks, unproven at the distance and the potential for a hot pace. A lot depends on if he gets hooked up on the front end with the other speed in the race. I also find it interesting that all three of the early speed horses are all right next to each other in posts 9-10-11. #11 CALL ME JAMAL needs the lead and should go all out to get there, but he’s going to need to get around Newgrange to do it. #9 CLASSIC MOMENT can also apply some pressure if he can get over and #1 BEN DIESEL should go hard out of the gate up along the rail. Another observation with the last race replay; Newgrange ran uncontested at slow fractions (24.2/48.4) in his last race at Santa Anita.
The favorite in that race was Rockefeller who ran off the pace and I’m not so sure the jock was pushing that hard with both horses coming out of the same barn. Either way he either left a lot in the tank or he didn’t win that impressively as one may think. Newgrange will be the favorite and understandably so, I’m holding out hope that none of the early speed scratches out as that would sway my opinion. I am doubtful you’re going to get 2:1 on Newgrange, probably closer to even money on the tote board come post time.
#5 COSTA TERRA (ML 12:1); This would be my tourney pick horse (NHC National Handicapping tournament is this weekend) as I believe he has the best chance to outrun his odds. He ran against Grade 1 competition last start, taken to the back and never got into the race and made a slight move on the turn. I would have liked to have seen his run if he was a little closer to the pace out of the gate. The prior race was a juvenile race at Ellis Park and the horse finished 3rd, watch the replay and key in on the gallop out which I absolutely love. There certainly was confidence when the connections made the decision to run in a G1 at Keeneland back in October. Sired by one of my all-time favorites in Gun Runner and his offspring have been so successful to date, I believe this horse can continue to improve. Give me double digit odds and I’m working this one into my plays.
Also consider these horses if the price is right to round out your tickets:
A couple more horses to round out the Supers and Tri’s: #12 VIVAR (ML 12:1) who has already won at the distance. #1 BEN DIESEL (ML 10:1) who did win running just off the pace in debut, has also had a tough go with the post positions that last 2 races. One more I’ll consider rounding out the Tri and Super is #7 IGNITIS (ML 12:1) as he did run well picking up some ground in the Smarty Jones from the back of the pack. Considering this is probably a two-horse race I would want more of a price than what the morning line reflects.
Race Picks
(2-10-5-12)
