GRADE 2 RISEN STAR STAKES; FAIR GROUNDS 1 1/8 MILE ON DIRT
Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
This weekend we continue down the derby trail with the first (50) point Kentucky Derby prep race of the season. With several contenders in the same race, I am excited to update the rankings after weekend. I am providing some additional insight this week with on every horse in the field and including the trip notes recorded of every runner’s last race to attempt to get an edge.
Pace visual out of the gate: Quirin Early Speed Points (42)
2022 Risen Star Quirin Points
Stats of Note in 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Fairgrounds
- Favorites win (47%), run ITM (82%) and horses 5:1 or less win (74%).
- Only 2 races but Early Speed type runners won (50%) and they went wire-to-wire doing so. Both races have been one by horses with inside post positions (1-3).
(1) PAPPACAP (ML 4:1)
Concerned with his run in the Lecomte, the excuse would be, “did he just not fire off the layoff?” Missed a chance to make a move when the rail opened, need to see that last race was a fluke and take a big step forward. I will use him underneath in verticals.
Trip Notes: Was 4-lengths back on the rail on the back stretch, made his move halfway into the turn. Rail opened and had a perfect opportunity to make a move but didn’t accelerate. Was out run by Epicenter, had a good trip and there were no excuses. Beaten by CALL ME MIDNIGHT, EPICENTER, CORNICHE; beat GIANT GAME.
(2) RUSSIAN TANK (ML 50:1)
Nothing to get excited about here, tossing.
Trip Notes: Left gate well and was eased back. Ran from the back and was 5+wide on the turn and flattened. Needs the lead and never got it. Beaten by RATTLE N ROLL, IGNITIS, VIVAR.
(3) TRAFALGAR (ML 10:1)
The breeding suggests this horse may be better for one-turn. Adds blinkers and has already won at Fairgrounds, maybe underneath in a tri or super.
Trip Notes: Slight hesitation out of the gate and Hernandez did a nice job getting him forwardly placed right behind the leaders who were three wide. Did miss a chance to get over and was outside Papacap. Was in the 2 path through out the backstretch and on the front of the turn he was eased back for the run on the front end. He had a slight pocket open going into the stretch but was out run by Epicenter. He went outside and flattened as the three front horses distanced themselves. Beaten by CALL ME MIDNIGHT, EPICENTER, PAPPACAP, CLASSIC CAUSEWAY.
(4) TAWNY PORT (ML 12:1)
This is the mystery horse with trainer intent. Brad Cox makes the decision to ship from Turfway into a very competitive race and places his go-to jockey Flo Geroux to ride him (30% wins). There are two prep races coming up at Turfway but Cox ships into Fairgrounds. Probably needs a fast pace to run into but has shown he can do it. I’ll include him in the mix.
Trip Notes: Broke fine out of the gate; was wide on the turn. Went 3-wide and was able to close the gap quickly on front end collapse with the speed horses on the front. Hung on begging for the wire as two others were gaining on him. Has not beaten any horses of note.
(5) EPICENTER (ML 4:1)
No excuses last race, in what was expected to be a hot pace he got average fractions and did not capitalize. As trip notes indicate he couldn’t have received a better trip and did not take advantage of it, may have peaked. Should be on the front-end out of the gate and at the half. Should get enough pressure to have the back speed chasing him down in the stretch run. I believe the only question is will he hang long enough in the stretch to end up in verticals.
Trip Notes: Left gate well passing three horses to his inside. Was able to grab the front-end on the 1st turn, accelerated to get alone on the front end for backstretch run. Had the rail in perfect spot without the expected quick fractions, he came off the rail opening things up for Papacap. Looked to be in control down the stretch but didn’t have enough to hold off the high odds closer. Beaten by CALL ME MIDNIGHT, GREAT ESCAPE, GIANT GAME. Has beat PAPPACAP, SURFER DUDE.
(6) PIONEER OF MEDINA (ML 10:1)
The sire is Pioneer of the Nile, so the pedigree is there. Big jump in class and has not beaten anyone of note. (5) career starts with a different jockey every race at five different tracks. Saez and Pletcher connect at a (29%) rate, and I like the 5f bullet a week ago. Seems like they are still testing waters to see what they have but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him catch the board.
Trip Notes: Left the gate well settling in the 2-path into turn. Cut out in front and grabbed the rail to fight off the challengers; didn’t look overly impressive passed on gallop out pace saving trip.
(7) ZANDON (ML 9:2)
He’s the trendy horse on social media and I feel his odds should be a little higher than the morning line. I like what I saw the last trip and when Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz connect at (44%). He may want a little less distance but he’s the best back speed in the field. In Remsen lost by a nose with no pace. To finish where he did, I believe he will be in the mix. Like this horse underneath.
Trip Notes: Two horses were to his inside and was forced 3 wide around the first turn. He made a move mid-turn and went outside three wide was running tough in the stretch, lost the bob to Mo Donegal. Thought he had a tough trip and showed good fight in the stretch. Beaten by MO DONEGAL.
(8) SMILE HAPPY (ML 7:2)
One of my favorite replays of all time is seeing the sire Run Happy win his opener at Turfway Park. His offspring have not been as successful but am hoping Smile Happy is a special horse. The Kentucky Juvenile race back on November 21st was a very strong field. We saw Classic Causeway with his dominating effort in the Sam F. Davis and White Abario who won the Holy Bull. Kenny McPeek stats don’t jump off the page, but I love the workout pattern. Finding value will be tough but I feel he’s legit, probably bet down to 8/5 range.
Trip Notes: Broke well out of the gate, went 2-wide into the first turn. 3-wide on back stretch and 3-wide around the turn moving forward. Heading into the stretch went 4-wide to pass others with ease and it didn’t appear that difficult, had another gear. This is a replay I challenge everyone to watch, was not an easy trip and he still put some talented horses away. Has beat CLASSIC CAUSEWAY, WHITE ABARIO
(9) BODOCK (ML 10:1)
The other Brad Cox who’s 2 wins in 2 sprints going to his first route against a challenging crowd. Has seen some success with Pedroza (31%) .The dam has some distance out of A.P. Indy but I think this is a big task, toss.
Trip Notes: Taken back to the rail and ran in the garden spot. Stayed inside and got a shot to sneak through past tired horses on a sloppy track. He fought on to hold off challengers in stretch, but he got a good trip. Has not beaten any horses of note
(10) SLOW DOWN ANDY (9:2)
Highest speed rating and beat Messier at Los Als. Doug O’Neill ships across the country, Mario Gutierrez has ridden all three starts. As trip notes indicate he didn’t exactly have a perfect trip. He should be there in the end.
Trip Notes: Moved over to the rail out of the gate to position himself behind the front runners. He went a little wide on the first turn but held onto the rail. Went 4-wide off to turn with Messier positioned to his inside. He didn’t like the whip as noted with the tail pop, lost a step or two drifting a bit. He looked good once settled, the horse looked good in the stretch with his ears pricked and ran the gallop out head-to-head with Messier. Has beat MESSIER.
PICKS: (8-10) over (7-1-5-4)
