Tampa Bay Derby Prep Race Analysis by Chris Pomerleau
We are yet another week closer to the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs. This weekend the focus is on Tampa Bay Downs’ biggest race day of the year with the Tampa Bay Derby which rewards 50 points to the winner. Let’s dive in on the race details.
(Race 11) 5:23pm est GRADE 2 TAMPA BAY DERBY; 1 1/16 MILE ON DIRT
The weather looks like it may be a factor as heavy thunderstorms are expected in the morning, it will be interesting how the track plays throughout the day.
Pace visual out of the gate based on pace type and early speed (Quirin Points).
Saddle Cloth and Pace Type of each entry
Pace Analysis…
- (4) Classic Causeway should break well from the 4-post and will likely be on the lead. The key horse for me is (5) Giant Game, if he can break well and contest the lead it will change the race dynamics. If Classic Causeway gets to the front uncontested it could be another wire-to-wire effort like what we saw in the Sam F. Davis.
- There is a total of (34) Quirin Points which means the pace has the potential to be brisk.
Stats of Note in 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Tampa Bay Downs
- Of (34) 3yo Graded Stakes the favorites win (50%) and horses 5:1 or less win (76%).
- Of 8.5f races (26%) go wire to wire. Early Speed (E) runners win (38%) of these races, add in EP type runners its (59%). The average beaten lengths are (2.7) at 1st call and (1.6) for 2nd
- Average Par Speed of winner is a (97).
Replay of note is the Sam F. Davis where several horses from this race move into the derby.
If you don’t have replays as part of your game watch the same race keying in on each horse to see how the race plays out.
CLASSIC CAUSEWAY IS #3
GOLDEN GLIDER IS #4
TRADEMARK IS #6
SHIPSATIONAL IS #8
STRIKE HARD #11
(1) Grantham (20:1)
Finished 4th in Withers behind Early Voting and Un Ojo. Hesitated a bit out of gate got the rail running fourth into first turn. Taken back a bit on backstretch and then reengaged to run 4 wide on the final turn. Swung wide on stretch and flattened. Believe he cost himself some placing from wide run, 1/1 at the distance. (+)
(2) Trademark (30:1)
Forwardly placed out of the gate. Ran in between horses into first turn. Fractions run were too much, and he faded halfway into final turn. 2/3 at the distance, trainer jockey connect (20%) wins.
(3) Happy Boy Rocket (12:1)
Short run up to first turn and got hung five wide. 3-wide on the back stretch and continued to move forward. Slow fractions, 3 wide on turn and ran by the two front runners. In control and didn’t have the easiest trip. Jockey/Trainer (23%) wins, Mott is (20%) with shippers. (+)
(4) Classic Causeway (8:5)
Shot out of the gate well and got to the front. Grabbed the rail and was pushed by outside speed. Quick 1st fraction running head-to-head with other early speed who ran together into the stretch. Got away in the stretch but really got a perfect trip all the way around. Lynch and Irad are 2/2, Lynch is (22%) 2nd off a layoff.
(5) Giant Game (10:1)
Far outside post in Holy Bull. Short run up to turn hung wide but tucked in nicely. Tried to move up on back stretch but couldn’t get there. Around final turn was being urged but ran out of gas. Believe he’s a need the lead type and didn’t get it here.
(6) Golden Glider (10:1)
Was where he needed to be heading into the first turn. Along the rail coasting 4 lengths back on a brisk fraction. Got pinned inside by outside runners making moves on the turn. Moved out heading into the stretch but remained bottled up. Not the best trip but seemed to flatten a bit in the stretch.
(7) Strike Hard (8:1)
Tardy out of the gate and was at the back of the pack into the first turn. Moved past back horses heading into backstretch 3 wide. Went 5-6 wide to sweep around and ran down the stretch to capture 4th. Classic Causeway was much the best, but this was a troubled trip for a horse that needs to be more forwardly placed. (+)
(8) Major General (9:2)
Stumbled out of gate but recovered quickly. 4-wide into the turn. Was able to find a spot to settle into the backstretch. Cheap speed was on the front at average fractions. Duked it out in the stretch with even money favorite and barely hung on with several late speed horses surging. Coming off almost a 6 month lay-off. Pletcher/Castellano are (33%) wins, Pletcher is (26%) 90+ days away and (24%) with shippers.
(9) Shipsational (5:1)
Slight hesitation out of the gate. Ran in garden spot on the backstretch. Into the turn he was 3-wide while advancing. Swung 4-5 wide to get around others, passed a couple of tired horses but seemed to be moving in the right direction. Manny Franco and Barker are 1 for 4.
(10) Belgrade (20:1)
Stumbled a bit out of the gate and trailed the pack. Advanced mid pack and then was taken back. 3 wide into the final turn and was moving well., wide into the stretch and got ahead to win at the wire. Seemed green still in 2nd career start. Motion is (18%) with horses going to a route and (18%) with horses 2nd off a layoff.
(11) Money Supply (10:1)
Bumped a bit coming out of the gate. Ran at the back of the pack. 10 lengths back heading into the final turn and started his run. Front runners ran suicide fractions of 22/45 and he was gifted the rail. Perfect pace scenario for a closer.
(12) Spin Wheel (20:1)
Was at the back into the first turn. Ran at the back and around the turn took the inside route but wasn’t gaining in the stretch.
Tampa Bay Derby Plays:
The likely scenario is CLASSIC CAUSEWAY grabs the front end and doesn’t get pressed on a track that really favors early speed. Typically, the Morning Line maker places 2:1 on the favorite but in this case, I believe they have it right. I am looking for a better price thinking Giant Game can run better and will challenge CC on the front end. If that can happen and you get 5:1 on 9 SHIPSATIONAL pair up with Classic Causeway in an exacta. He ran well three weeks ago in the Sam F Davis getting up for 2nd on not the best trip. If track is off that may be an advantage to Shipsational as he’s 2/2 on an off track. We cannot toss 4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY so we will embrace him and find ways to create value using him. I’ll take a couple of other prices with 10 BELGRADE who has had only one start as a 3-year-old and fought through some trouble coming from off the pace in a slow pace. He has pedigree for 2 turns, like at a big price. Tampa is a deep track and horses either like or they don’t, has already won a race at Tampa I’ll include 7 STRIKE HARD as I love the replay of his last race, you see he finished 6+ lengths off Classic Causeway but that doesn’t tell the entire story. Jockey upgrade to Luis Saez with competitive speed figures.
TAMPA BAY DERBY PICKS:
