Weekend Kentucky Derby Prep Race Analysis by Chris Pomerleau
Well, we are here with the last big prep races before the Kentucky Derby which is now officially less than one month away. For the (3) big prep races I will go into deep details on the Blue Grass at Keeneland, the Santa Anita Derby and provide selections for the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. I hope my analysis gets you in the winners’ circle this weekend, enjoy!
(Race 9) Keeneland 5:10pm est. G1 Blue Grass; 1 1/8 mile on dirt.
There is expected rain in the forecast, and it is cold, so keep an eye on the track as conditions could change.
Pace visual out of the gate based on pace type and early speed (Quirin Points).
Pace Analysis…
- Based off the pace types 3 TRADEMARK and 6 EMMANUEL should get to the front end and set the pace. If 4 ZANDON gets a clean break I believe he will be in better position. I also believe 10 SMILE HAPPY will be pushed to get up and over the back speed horses to his inside and be more forwardly placed than his last race.
- There is a total of (31) Quirin Points but only two one-dimensional E-speed horses, 5 VOLCANIC and 12 GRANTHAM play important roles in determining how much pressure is applied to the front-end.
Stats of Note in 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Keeneland
- Of (43) 3yo Graded Stakes the favorites win (47%) and horses 5:1 or less win (74%).
- Of (6) 9-furlong races (50%) the winner has gone wire to wire; the Early Speed bias is (67%). The average beaten lengths are (2.1) at 1st call and (0.9) for 2nd
- Average Par Speed of the winner is a (103), no horses in the race have run to that par number.
TRIP NOTES
1 Commandperformance
Finished 2nd in MSW at Tampa. Far outside post and went 3-wide into the first turn. Ran wide throughout, ultimately got outrun by a 21:1 long shot (X)
2 Fenwick
Same Tampa race winning at high odds. Had the rail and got out in front. Got loose on the front end with a perfect trip. Won handily and looked like he had more in gallop out.
3 Trademark
Ran in the Tampa Bay Derby finishing 5th. Left a bit tardy out of the gate. Ran in the 2-path into the first turn behind the leader. Out of the final turn he was just off the leader and a pocket opened between the rail horse and Classic Causeway. Could not move when the opportunity presented itself. Flattened in the stretch and looked gassed.
4 Zandon
Finished 3rd in the Risen Star at Fairgrounds behind Epicenter and Smile Happy. Hopped at the start which probably cost him a length+. Was at the back and quickly shifted over to the rail running in the 2-path running into the turn. Maintain position at the rear until the final turn and swung 4-5 wide into the stretch. Flattened a bit in the stretch where Smile Happy drove past to the inside. Definitely a troubled trip. (+)
5 Volcanic
Broke well from the 10-post and ran in the 2-path comfortably behind the lead pack. Made a slight move on the backstretch to get alongside the leaders. Ran 3-wide into the turn and shifted out 4-wide into the stretch. Shifted inside while the front runner Classic Causeway ran away from the pack. Passed by Shipsational in the stretch. (+)
6 Emmanuel
Finished 4th in the Fountain of Youth. Ran into traffic out of the gate and was 2-3 wide going into the first turn. Made a forward move into the backstretch to the outside getting 7-wide into the backstretch. 4-wide on the final turn getting into the stretch in between the two front runners. Got caught behind Simplification and had to shift out to pass where he was passed by In Due Time and the back speed O Captain. Not an easy trip and don’t believe he ever got settled. (+)
7 Golden Glider
Finished 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby. Got caught behind traffic out of her gate. Ran on the rail around the first turn and stayed on the rail throughout. Shifted outside mid-way through the final turn. Ran 4-path down the stretch and got up for 4th.
8 Ethereal Road
Finished 2nd to Un Ojo in the Rebel. Was outside from the 10-post and 4-wide into the first turn. Ran in the 3-path into final turn moving well. Took the lead heading into the stretch and was bested by the winner who was down inside the rail. Held on for 2nd with a challenging trip. (+)
9 Rattle N Roll
Far outside post 9, moved over about 6-lengths off the leaders. Ran about 8-lengths off in the backstretch. Didn’t move until the turn into the stretch. Got up for 4th but looked flat. (-)
10 Smile Happy
Went behind traffic out of the gate, ran 2-path around the first turn. Ran 5-lengths back on the backstretch. Didn’t move on the final turn and was taken back a bit to gain some room for a stretch run. Ran inside finishing well passing horses to the outside. Good gallop out. (+)
11 Blackadder
Winner of the El Camino Derby at Golden Gate. Eased back behind the front runners out of the gate. Grabbed the rail around the first turn, running about 8 lengths off the leader. Made move into the stretch and took advantage of opening in the 3-path to make a move. Dueled down the stretch and put head out in front. Was a weak field and did not look impressive? (-)
12 Grantham
Finished 2nd to Classic Causeway in the Tampa Bay Derby. Had the rail out of the gate grabbing the rail into the first turn. Space saving trip, hung on for 2nd. Never threatened the winner. Outran his odds of 37:1.
Blue Grass Picks:
I believe the two best horses in this race are Smile Happy and Zandon, excuses can be made in their last races why they did not win. I am taking 10 SMILE HAPPY on top as I believe he will fire 2nd of the layoff and be closer to the pace than he was last time. I like the works of a 5f bullet at (58.4), a 4f work at 48 followed by a maintenance run 7-days before the race. My 2nd choice is 4 ZANDON as he also had a tough trip with a slow start, I did think he closed well in his last race. I will close things out with two of the trip note horses noted above. 8 ETHEREAL ROAD ran close to the pace and ran really well finishing 2nd in the Rebel. I’ll also put 6 EMMANUEL on the board and his trip was tougher than what the PP comments reflect.
BLUE GRASS PICKS:
Next up let’s dive in on the Santa Anita Derby.
(Race 9) Santa Anita Park 5:30pm est. G1 Santa Anita Derby; 1 1/8 mile on dirt.
The weather looks beautiful, 88 degrees and lots of sunshine.
Pace visual out of the gate based on pace type and early speed (Quirin Points).
Pace Analysis…
- Based off the pace types 2 ARMAGNAC and 3 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM should be on the front end. 6 TABIA will be forwardly placed but it will be interesting to see what Mike Smith does to position him, does he need the lead or can he tuck him in behind Forbidden Kingdom. 4 MESSIER should be able to get right behind the front runners out of the gate.
- Small field and there is a total of (27) Quirin Points. As discussed, Thursday night there were some different theories on the tactics of this race.
Watch here: Go to (27.10) mark to see the discussion and opinions on the SA Derby:
Stats of Note in 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Santa Anita
- Of (2) 9-furlong races (50%) the winner has gone wire to wire; the Early Speed bias is (100%). The average beaten lengths are (0.3) at 1st call and (0.5) for 2nd
- Average Par Speed of the winner is a (103), no horses in the race have run to that par number. 3 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM is close to par at (102), 4 MESSIER has had a top number of (104) and 6 TABIA had a first out impressive figure of (100) looking to improve off that in his second start.
TRIP NOTES
1 Happy Jack
Ran from the 1 post in the San Felipe. Left the gate well and scooted up front along the rail. Taken back heading into the back stretch allowing others to pass. About 8 lengths back from Forbidden Kingdom heading into the rail. No match and field just leveled off and he hung on for 3rd. (X)
2 Armagnac
Ran in the San Felipe was stirred up a bit while in the gate. Broke well and got up front but was passed by Forbidden Kingdom to his outside. Ran a little wide into the first turn, trailed the leader throughout the back stretch at about 3 lengths. He had nothing left before the final turn and was clearly done. (X)
3 Forbidden Kingdom
Broke well from 6 post and sprinted past the inside two to get the front end and along the rail. Looked like he was easily gliding along, and the others were no match. Wasn’t challenged but this field wasn’t touching him.
4 Messier
Ran from the 1 post. Broke well and got alongside the front runners who were really pushing to get to the front. Regained the lead heading into the first turn. Was being pushed by outside horse throughout the final turn. Was urged just into the stretch and the others were not even in the picture. Not a strong field but looked good.
5 Win the Day
Won at big odds in a MSW race. Taken back out of the gate. Fractions were 22.4/46.1, started his move just before the final turn. Went 4 wide heading into the stretch, the front runners were all gassed, he was a benefactor of pace .
6 Taiba
Ran from 4 post in MSW. Glided out of the gate to the front. Ran front end eye to eye with a 13:1 horse. Another horse pressed from the outside while Taiba was on the rail. Took off in the stretch and put the field away easily.
Santa Anita Derby Picks:
If you’ve been following along it’s no secret how I’ve had Messier on the top of the derby rankings board thinking he may have transferred trainers earlier. Now that he must finish in the top 2 spots, he’s in it to win it. Top pick is 4 MESSIER all he has done is win 3x in 5 starts, toss the Los Alamitos races and his wins have been dominating. Johnny V keeps the mount for a reason, need to get points here to get to Churchill. 2nd choice is the other Tim Yakteen from Baffert horse 6 TAIBA. This is a talented $1.7m purchase by Zeden Stables who have utilized Baffert’s services for some time. If he gets into the derby field that price tag looks a lot better. 3 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM could break well grab the front end and easily go wire to wire. He’s a very talented horse but the insight provided is if the 2 is going to ‘run rabbit’ and push him hard on the front end. Forbidden Kingdom is already heading to the derby, do they want to go all-out here or reserve some fuel in the tank is the question. I’ll round things out with the trip note horse 5 WIN THE DAY thinking he can maybe sneak in on the back half of tris and supers.
SANTA ANITA DERBY PICKS:
And finally let’s take a review at the Wood Memorial at the Big A.
(Race 8) Aqueduct 4:45pm est. G2 Wood Memorial; 1 1/8 mile on dirt.
It appears to be partly cloudy, and rain is in the forecast right around the time of this race.
Pace visual out of the gate based on pace type and early speed (Quirin Points).
Pace Analysis…
- This race set-up reminds me a lot of the Florida Derby where there are several (E/EP) horses and there should be enough pace to impact the front runners setting things up for an off the pace type.
- There is a total of (48) Quirin Points with (3) one dimensional E-speed horses.
Stats of Note in 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Aqueduct
- Of (29) 9-furlong races (34%) the winner has gone wire to wire; the Early Speed bias is (66%). The average beaten lengths are (2.2) at 1st call and (1.3) for 2nd
- Average Par Speed of the winner is a (97), only one horse has run to par 5 MORELLO (99).
Wood Memorial Picks:
I believe this is going to be an interesting race to watch as there are a lot of people discounting this race. To win the derby you need to be on the front end but if there was ever a year of a contentious derby it may be 2022. I am really interested in a few horses who I believe may be legit derby contenders.
My top pick is 5 MORELLO as he’s looked good in all his races, I am a little concerned if he is going to like the extra distance but 3 wins in 3 starts, going longer each time and has the highest pace figure in the field. Shout out to Blue Lion Thoroughbreds as this horse has a ton of New York connections and I’m a fan first and will be rooting him home. 2nd choice is 1 MO DONEGAL didn’t get the best trip in the Holy Bull and he may be the best of the Pletcher horses. With a hot pace up front he fits well here. 3rd choice is 3 EARLY VOTING he ran against a quick pace last time out and looked good against a weak field that did include Rebel Stakes winner Un Ojo. Jose Ortiz is coming in to ride for Chad Brown (30%). He’s a Gun Runner and has a win and the pedigree at 1 1/8th. On the back end I am going to throw in a wild card with 8 BARESE based more on pace type, he’s 3/3 and ran a (95) speed rating last time out.
WOOD MEMORIAL PICKS:
